Jake Whites take on the 4 nations

Interesting read on Jake Whites take around the Championship Tournament this year. He obviously thinks that the All Blacks will struggle this year due to various reasons and that this may be a good time fior Argentina to come into the fray rather than to meet the All Blacks at the  top of their game.......

qoute

"There is no doubt that they've got a world cup hangover and I don't blame them because they waited a long time for it.

"The next team that wins the world cup will have a world cup hangover the following year as well.

"It happened to the All Blacks in 1987, Australia in 1991 and South Africa in 1995". Un-quote

Does this mean that the Wallabies will be the favourites as there test squad appears to be the least affected by change ?

Nonetheless I am looking forward to an intruiging series, I have also made sure not to get too carried away with the success of the form of our Super Rugby teams as this has shown consistently that this does not necessarily transfer over to the International stage 

"Nonetheless I am looking forward to an intruiging series, I have also made sure not to get too carried away with the success of the form of our Super Rugby teams as this has shown consistently that this does not necessarily transfer over to the International stage "

There is not really a lot that prove that beyond any doubt, just as there is not a lot that proves otherwise either.  We had our first real showing in Super Rugby in 2007, and that year did not do quite well in the TN, but that was also a year in which Jake White was in the kak for sending a "weakened team" to Australasiam but did go on to win the RWC in the same year. In 2008 we did not OK in Super Rugby. We had the Sharks in semi-finals but our TN was a balls-up because of PDV's outrages "expansive rugby".

In 2009, the Bulls won the S14 again, and the Sharks were in the final and we won the TN. In 2010 the Bulls won the S14 against the Stormers, and that was the only year that we "fell out the bus" despite our showing in the S14. 2011 Was a joke altogether with PDV trying the same thing as Jake, but failed because his campaign to retain the RWC alreadt failed in 2008 and he panicked.

Ok fair enough comments backed up with valid data.................

I think JW is right about the ABs being vulnerable this year. The Irish squad will be a tough challenge for the ABs and Im struggling to remain optimistic about them winning the series and retaing their unbeaten record against the Paddys. The Heineken Cup final was played by 2 Irish teams and their national team have been the bane of NZ's SANZAR partners over the past few years. It doesnt take any great stretch of the imagination to envision the ABs losing the series against the Irish.   

Super results arent an effective gauge of a countries preparedness for the Test season but I think its fair to assume that the Aussies are slim favourites to win the 4N's, closely followed by the Bokke. The mid season tours will shed more light on the readiness of the SANZAR teams.  

I think you all have it completely wrong...Jake White included. There is NO WAY the Irish are gonna win a series in New Zealand against New Zealand. They couldn't even win the six nations. The All Blacks are still the team to beat, and I don't buy all this "world cup hangover" crap. They have oodles of new talent coming through the ranks, and there will be more than enough of the experienced All Blacks left in the team to offer stability. Sorry gents, but all of you jumping on this band wagon seem to have smoked something goooooooood!! Aint even nearly gonna happen.

There is no way that Jake is wrong on this one.   A team gets built up to high level and wins the WC - but then the coaching gets complicated and they stuck with players way past their sell-by date.   It is repetitive and all sides are guilty.   The All Blacks did it after 1987, the Aussies after 1991, the Sprringboks after 1995 and 2007 and the Poms after 2003.   Most teams competing in two WC's or more - can go only one qway and that is down.

Instead of looking at new talent - they go blind and stick with the rugby geriatrics.   That is why no team has yet won the WC in succession.

That does not mean that the WC winners would start losing against mediocre lower level teams - but they will lose against top competition.   At this stage New Zealand is not looking good on paper - but I have my doubts about them losing to ireland.

@Nuke - I understand your fears, but as Mike says i don't think it's the all blacks that need to feel that threatened by Ireland. Not because NZ are that good mind you, I don't think they'll be the team they wer in the past 2-3 years. But mostly because I don't see Ireland as as much a threat as Wales and England. England have a point to prove and Wales have beend dangerious since the World Cup. The guys that should worry are us and the Ausies, more than the All blacks me thinks.

On the money there Ek.

CleverMike Just cos something happened in the past, doesn't mean it'll happen again. I get where you are coming from, I am just not convinced it is so. All Blacks just have too much at their disposal to lose this series. 

bluebok - I was really not dealing with the upcoming Irish series - but on a longer term with WC competition.   I think the irish has not changed much over the past six years and that is why they have gone backwards.   Would not put 5 cents on them to beat the All Blacks.

However, there are some retirees from the All Blacks after the WC - but there are more to follow if they want to be competitive in the next WC.   People to go would include all players over 28 at this stage  and that would mean that a lot of players should not be selected for 2014.    Just one more thing - New Zealand may have learnt from the past mistakes of WC winners and start now to build up a new team for 2014 - but that would be a massive change from the present team and could in the shorter term reduce the strength of the All Blacks.   if they do not learn from past history - they will get nowhere.   

Mike I think your points about learning from the past should be applied to us as well. I think the Irish will put up a good fight against the All Blacks as will the Welsh and Poms. However we are talking long term buildup to the RWC.

The immediate concern is the fact that key players Schalk, JDV etc etc etc are not getting any ball time and once the Championship starts it will be their match fitness and time on the field that will be their biggest hurdle. You only need to looik at Richie MaCaw he seems a distant of the player we know he was and he's been back for 3 games now?

I think there wont be a lot of concern about who wins or who loses this first year as there will be so much re-modelling going on that all coaches will be tinkering and re-assessing their playing styles.....I suppose it depends on who does it the quickest?

I did mention in an earlier post that of all teams the Wallabies probably look the least unsettled and with the Brumbies andReds starting to show some form then maybe they might settle in quiker than we think.

However the biggest threat to the Southern nations wll no doubt come from a very young, very talented, very well coached and very wellbalanced Welsh team. No doubt their youth and enthusiasm and their young dynamic captain will be 4 years better when the 2015 RWC rolls in

radtad 1

100% correct as regards South Africa.   I went to France for the 2007 World Cup - and was invited by friends to stay with them for the 2011 WC.    I decided against going - because of the team selected by SA.   There were just too many "rugby geriatrics"  in our side and I could not see how they could win.  

Are the number of injuries of senior players not due to the fact that the players have reached a stage in their careers indicating that they cannot really go on?    This apply to a number of players - espeially from the Stormers and they include Schalk Burger.    My rule of thumb is that anybody over 28 should in fact be replaced by the time the next  WC comes up.   if not - they would be 32-33 by the time of the next WC.   I said this after 2007 and am saying this in respect of all teams at this stage.

There is one fact of life - as a student of history - and that is that HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF, but we as human beings for reasons of our own refuse to recognise this inevitability.