MOMozart
Captain49,914 posts
MOMozartCaptain49,914 posts
04 Oct 2013, 03:29#2
It's turnovers conceded Dave. So Jean wins. So much for JJ being a "turnover king"! And try the same thing for the last three games against our real opposition, you will find Jean has beaten 8 defenders....JJ zero. There is no serious debate as to who our most valuable centre has been. In fact Jean is vying with Eben for our most valuable player.
04 Oct 2013, 11:32#3
Why bother, Stupid?
We've already established that your clueless and that your prone to arguing for arguments sake.
How's your treatment coming on?
04 Oct 2013, 15:50#6
Yeah ... it will soon be 4 tries in 20 starts ...
04 Oct 2013, 18:26#8
JJ has done himself proud imo. He certainly was not embarrased defensively against Australia and NZ as many expected (myself included) might happen. The Aussies in particular in that first Test made a concerted effort to target his channel. AAC ran the ball 14 times, far higher than in any other test and JJ made 9, missing 2. Against NZ he made all 9 of his tackle opportunities.
His best attribute is his speed and finishing and that certainly is nothing to dismiss, but beyond that there is little elusiveness or distribution / vision. When looking at the Rugby Championship stats his pass / run ratio was 3/24. Compare that to JDV at 26/34 - granted at inside center he should be passing the ball more, but that is a significant difference. Take a look at the ratios of the other two outside centers - Conrad Smith 32/35 and AAC 17/30. Bear in mind that AAC's numbers are skewed with the high number of runs he had in the first Test against South Africa otherwise the ratio would be similar to JDV.
Clearly JJ hasn't learnt to distribute and probably goes a long way to explaining why Habana has had a relatively quiet Championship. Our best finisher isn't getting as much ball as he should although I would also like to see him go looking for more work . This also adds weight to the assertion that perhaps skill-wise JJ is best suited on the wing, especially if it makes space for Serfontein to join the line at center.
04 Oct 2013, 18:31#9
Holy Shit Saff, you don't want to start getting caught up in Stats. What stats don't tell you you is what led to tries and goals or points conceded. Need to look at the chain of events.
The try that SideShow scored had most player involvde, Du Preez to Steyn from 22, Steyn wide to Jean, 10 meters gained, drawn two defenders, long pass to JJ, 30 meters gained, opposition 10 meters, inside pass to Side show, 30 meters gained, try, near the post, conversion.
Or
kick habana from 10m, distance 20, Smith to Barritt, defender beaten(Jannie), 20 meters gained, Defender beaten (?) 5 meters. Boks 22, ruck, (Smith to Smith), line break, (Missed tackle Jannie), 10 meter, offload to Ratelick, 10m try, under the post, conversion.
The stats you guys go on about are just vanity metrics, they don't tell you the truth. If you really want to use stats, you need to look for patterns and segments of what is you try to validate. A player might miss one tackle the entire match, but did that miss tackle result in a try which was the case for Basson, missed tackle own 5 meter, try.
MOMozart
Captain49,914 posts
MOMozartCaptain49,914 posts
04 Oct 2013, 19:21#10
I agree KC you can't look at a specific match and grade the player totally based on stats. You have to put those stats in context. Was it a routine tackle, or a difficult tackle in space....was it a crucial tackle that had to be made to save try? But the stats can point to problems and successes one can confirm with another look at the game.
And if you look at stats over many matches, they become more indicative of patterns.....clean breaks and defenders beaten per run, tackles made per tackles attempted. By the end of a series the stats and the visual impressions mostly align. Where they don't, the insights are often quite rich.
Matey the problem I have with your conclusion on defence is so few of JJs tackles are crisp....so often a second tackler is required to totally kill momentum. And then there is the Bosch miss before the last 3 games.
To me he is clearly a wing. Fast and a good finisher.... No doubt he is is getting lots of individual attention to make the change to centre and there are some signs of progress, but I'm not convinced.
Serfontein by contrast is a natural centre and he needs a full game. The bits we have seen suggest he passes even less frequently than JJ. Right now he is so predictable, with an inside step every time he gets the ball
04 Oct 2013, 19:53#12
Moz - sorry, didn't see your post as I was making mine - yes, the Bosch incident is certainly what helped us think he was going to be a liability against the Wallabies and All-Blacks but it didn't materialize that way. Definitely agree with your observation about the type of tackles he makes and certainly was not saying that he is a good tackle, only that he did better than expected.
Serfontein has a long way to go doesn't he? Not a 12 in my book right now (at least not on the international stage). JDV is the best we have there by a mile - especially if we intend to further develop this rediscovered weapon called the Bok backline. It looks like JJ is going to be healthy for the game, but it would have been interesting to see where Meyer would have put Serfontein. If at 12, and JDV at 13 I fear it would have been a deathknell to any ambition to score 4 tries.
KAKalaedFreddie
Club Pro495 posts
KAKalaedFreddieClub Pro495 posts
04 Oct 2013, 22:27#13
Wow, the genius at work again. Daddy, dearest, why are you not coaching big league?
MOMozart
Captain49,914 posts
MOMozartCaptain49,914 posts
04 Oct 2013, 23:53#14
Yep Matey Jean's best position now appears to be 12...and Serfontein needs a bit more exposure. I used to think he could play 12 and jean shift to 13. Both moves now appear wrong.
SASaffolk
Captain30,741 posts
SASaffolk Captain30,741 posts
05 Oct 2013, 12:29#15
Well Moz one certainty is that its not turnovers conceded and the obvious reason for that is that there is no way in hell that in 8 tests, JJ has been turned over 10 times, for if he was we would all be screaming and shouting that he never retains possession.
If it was turn overs conceded, then it would say as much. Its turn overs made.
JJ has beaten 10 defenders in 8 tests, Jean has beaten 14........I'd certainly expect an inside centre to beat more defenders than an outside centre, for its his job to create and feed his outside backs......its the role of a 13 to finish......something JJ is doing perfectly with 4 tries in 8 starts.
We only scraped through against Italy and Scotland, so to downgrade them as opposition in those tests is laughable.
If we want to talk stern opposition then look no further than the NZ test......where Jean beat no defenders and missed 2 tackles. JJ on the otherhand missed not a single one, so this notion about his average defence is simply not true. Hell given how NZ and the Boks smashed Oz, they can hardly be regarded as stiff opposition this year, if we want to get picky......we struggled more against Italy, Scotland and the Argies away than any test against Oz.
JJ has been great this year, he has run more metres, made more clean breaks, made more try assists than Jean, so to put Jean on a pedestal and question JJ is a joke.
I said JJ will be our best 13 since Gerber, for he has far better attacking attributes than Snyman, Mulder, Joubert and Fourie.........he is a far more exciting prospect.
As I said, I can't wait for the Goosen, Serfontein and JJ combo........should go down as our best ever, just like the Etzebeth and Steph du Toit combo should.
SASaffolk
Captain30,741 posts
SASaffolk Captain30,741 posts
05 Oct 2013, 12:56#16
King I am not big on stats at all, for they provide no context at all.......but when people use them to downplay a players contribution I tend to have a look at the stats myself.
This is what I did with JJ and found that he was pretty much on par with Jean this year, which is comforting to know, for my eye has told me the very same.
If JJ does not receive the ball in space then how is he meant to make a clean break or beat a defender? Stats dont tell you that, they just inform you that he beat no defenders.......but when JJ receives the ball in traffic as he did against Oz and NZ, he took contact well and retained forward momentum, placing the ball for recycling, just what we expect from him. More than that he cannot do. Same rule applies to Jean, he has stats saying he has missed tackles, I dont recall Jean been beaten one on one.
When JJ was put into space as he was against Oz, he set up a try......exactly what we expect from him.......so its just complete nonsense that he is not producing the goods, in fact he is doing quite the opposite and the very reason he has made the Bok 13 spot his own. This notion that he should be a wing is absolutely ridiculous - what a waste that would be.........he offers all we need at 13.......great speed and a wonderful step.
Stats provide no context, here we have Oimatey talking about the Bosch try and in the process exposing his lack of knowledge. That miss by JJ will go down as a miss, when in fact had context come into play one would realise that JJ was exposed for the simple reason that Bosch should have been tackled by Jannie, JJ was covering the outside, Bosch rightly attacked Jannie's outside and by the time JJ realised Jannie was in trouble it was too late. JJ tried to readjust after covering wide, he tried to change direction to tackle Bosch, had no time, was off balance and could only try go high......he hardly got a hand on Bosch. That's context..........had Bosch been a one on one tackle for JJ, he would would have had him as he has done all year.
JJ has not missed a single man on man tackle this year, not once has an attacker blown him away.......players miss tackles in broken play when defenders rush out or are confronted by numbers or are beaten by players running great lines etc......its part of the game.
Stats are useful, but they only account for about 20% of the real picture
SASaffolk
Captain30,741 posts
SASaffolk Captain30,741 posts
05 Oct 2013, 15:55#18
If turnovers include kicking the ball away that is a pathetic may of measuring a turnover, for every time a player kicks the ball he is effectively turning possession over, except when kicking for touch on a penalty or by some miracle his team mates recover an up and under say.
If turnovers including kicking then that stat needs to be ignored as its a stupid one, for no way in hell has JJ conceded 10 losses of possession with ball in hand in 8 tests......I dont recall a single one in fact.
Much like I dont recall Jean ever conceding such a turnovers
