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FORUM / RUGBY /  Justin Marshall: The key factors for the Rugby Championship; NZ Herald

Justin Marshall: The key factors for the Rugby Championship; NZ Herald

Started by Just_win8 REPLIES263 VIEWS· 10 Aug 2014, 22:38
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JW
Just_winCaptain18,570 posts
10 Aug 2014, 22:38
#1
10 Aug 2014, 22:38#1

1. Back three configuration

This is creating a lot of debate at the moment but I suspect the All Blacks will start the Rugby Championship with Israel Dagg at fullback and Ben Smith back on the wing, despite his brilliant outing at fullback against England.

Before Dagg's injury that was the coaches' thinking and they're probably reluctant to change that without giving him another opportunity.

The other part of the equation is that if Smith plays fullback, who plays right wing? Obviously Cory Jane is an option, but I'm not sure the selectors are cut and dried on that.

It's an intriguing scenario: if you're in Steve Hansen's shoes, would you play the back three you suspect would start for you in the World Cup next year and stick with it to develop combinations, or do you keep experimenting?

With the Eden Park fortress looming in week two, this might be the one and only time he plays around with his preferred back three.

2. Wallaby tight five

Can the Australian pack finally front up to deliver the talented backline quality consistent ball? Does their scrum hold up against South Africa and New Zealand for once?

These are the fundamental questions that stand between an Australian revival and more Bledisloe Cup pain.

People will point to the Waratahs' Super Rugby triumph as a pointer to Wallaby success, but I'm not so sure. There was still a real vulnerability in their tight five and in many respects they got lucky that there were so few scrums in the final as it took away one of the Crusaders' key weapons.

I was talking to Daryl Gibson after the match and he was saying that if there had been another scrum or two, they would have had to introduce Will Skelton, just to get a bit more bulk into their scrum, that's how much trouble they were in.

With Stephen Moore and Tatafu Polota-Nau out of that squad, the All Blacks, Argentina and particularly South Africa are going to put some serious heat on that Wallaby pack at scrum time. We're also a long way removed from the days of Australian dominance at the lineout through the likes of John Eales and Justin Harrison. This is a potential area of weakness to exploit as well.

3. Lost Pumas

Argentina need to win a game. I can't put it any more simply or emphasise it enough. They've drawn once and should have won, but that's not going to wash any more.

Their continuing involvement in the tournament requires more than a hint of promise.

If anything, they were closer to being competitive in their first year. Without a quality domestic tournament, there are no easy answers to the Argentina conundrum, but the success of this tournament relies on bums on seats and ratings and if the Pumas don't quickly emerge as a competitive force, then they become a liability.

4. Springbok style

How are South Africa going to approach this? That epic test at Ellis Park last year - which the All Blacks won 38-27 - showed they were capable of moulding a team that could expose their opposition through attack, rather than through their traditional, attritional style of territory and kicking.

That sort of rugby requires more than an ability to run, though, it needs "want".

I'm not sure a team coached by Heyneke Meyer, with his Bulls pedigree, will actually want to take the sort of risks needed to make this approach work.

That Ellis Park test was almost an unreal situation because the Springboks needed a bonus point win to take the Championship.

I suspect we'll see the Boks return to a kicking and territory game based around the likes of Fourie du Preez and Morne Steyn.

That's a shame, because they have the talent to take on the All Blacks with an attacking approach.

5. Lord Bledisloe or Championship?

The fact that Australia haven't held the Bledisloe Cup for a decade doesn't sit well over the Tasman.

With two of three Bledisloe tests in Australia this campaign, I can see the Wallabies targeting this trophy at the expense of the Rugby Championship.

Sure, they'd take the championship if it came their way, but I suspect they would live with dropping a game to South Africa and sacrificing the championship if it meant winning in Sydney and in Brisbane against the All Blacks (let's face it, they're not going to win at Eden Park).

The Bledisloe Cup in the cabinet would represent a huge source of satisfaction in Australia, the realisation of a short-term goal and a certain sign of progress ahead of the battle for the Webb Ellis Cup next year.

6. Lineout drive

Yes, we beat England 3-0 in June and, after an early hiccup, were quite convincing in doing so. But their lineout drive was an impressive beast and one the All Blacks could and should learn from.

We can get quite closed-minded about our rugby here and tend to think the way we do everything is the best, but that is a naive way to approach anything.

I look at the personnel we have, I'm talking about the likes of Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick and Julian Savea here, and think if we had as effective a lineout drive as England, we could be near unstoppable from this set-piece close to the opposition line. I would love to see Hansen formulate a plan where the lineout drive becomes a genuine source of attacking options for the All Blacks.

7. Loose talk

It is hard not to get excited by the fact we are going to see the most formidable collection of loose forwards going toe-to-toe over the next couple of months.

Just look at the names: Richie McCaw, Kieran Read, the returning Juan Smith, Michael Hooper, Wycliff Palu, Francois Louw, Duane Vermeulen, Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe, Juan Manuel Leguizamon.

There's intrigue, too. Who's going to emerge out of Jerome Kaino and Liam Messam as the All Blacks' preferred No 6? And what exactly are Australia going to do about a No 6 (ha ha)?

JW
Just_winCaptain18,570 posts
10 Aug 2014, 22:52
#2
10 Aug 2014, 22:52#2
Marshall should know that the ABs have been working on their rolling maul & they have been working on how to stop the oppositions also.
Interesting comment on the Boks willingness to play attacking rugby rather than attritional rugby - he doe sn't buy it.
sharkbok
sharkbokCaptain23,294 posts
10 Aug 2014, 23:09
#3
10 Aug 2014, 23:09#3
For the Boks, Dupreez is injured, so Pienaar is the likely starting 9, with Hougaard on the bench. Rumour has it Morne will only be on the bench, with Lambie a utlility back on the bench. 
Pollard is looking like the preferred 10 for the world cup so will want him to get game time.
Pollard is a more expansive player than Morne, so we should see some more running. Also Leroux combing in at 2nd receiver 
MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
11 Aug 2014, 00:21
#4
11 Aug 2014, 00:21#4
 This statement makes a mockery of the notion that Potgieter should have been a Bok lock candidate:

I was talking to Daryl Gibson after the match and he was saying that if there had been another scrum or two, they would have had to introduce Will Skelton, just to get a bit more bulk into their scrum, that's how much trouble they were in.



CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
11 Aug 2014, 04:55
#5
11 Aug 2014, 04:55#5
 Mozart
Gone bonkers again?  The change made is not Potgieter - it is Douglas.   Toy always make a fool of yourself - now don't you?   Every time you went for somebody you are normally caught out badly.   You got it wrong again - Potgieter played at lock or sometinmes at flank for the Waratahs - and there was no suggestion that he should eb in th Springbok squad at lock.
Talking about bulk - Matfield is not even a consideration.  At 106 kgs he is near to 10 kgs lighter than Potgieter - so what can we expect from him in Tight 5  play - definitely less than Potgieter and near to zero.   Matfield is physically deficient if ever there was a lock at play this year.   
On the other hand Potgioeter can play at flank - which Alberts cannot.  He has a high work rate - Alberts the lowest in the business.  He has the ability to handle balls - Alberts can't.  He can do ball protection and recovery - Alberts can't.
Why dio you always support duds when it comes to Springbok selection?


  
     
MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
11 Aug 2014, 06:45
#6
11 Aug 2014, 06:45#6


49Potgieter - sub off
Skelton - sub on
Foot in mouth.
CL
ClaydogClub Pro691 posts
11 Aug 2014, 06:54
#7
11 Aug 2014, 06:54#7
 In the semi against the Brumbies even the players were confused. Skelton came on and Potgieter made it to the sideline before he realised he was not the one being replaced.
MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
11 Aug 2014, 07:17
#8
11 Aug 2014, 07:17#8
 Obviously that substitution is the planned one...Potgieter certainly thought so in the semi... and that's what happened in the final.
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
11 Aug 2014, 14:10
#9
11 Aug 2014, 14:10#9
 Mozart
You still talk nonsense is is normal with you.  The idea with Potgieter should have been to play him at 7 ahead of the uselessly poor Sloth Alberts.   He would have been a cast improvement in Tight 5 play ahead of the Ophysical-deficient Matfield as well.
If Potgiter at 116 kgs was not strong enough in Tight 5 play - what about Matfield at 106 kgs who is just tossed out of mauls and shoved out of the way by all and sundry of the players?   Big mouth - but refuse to recognise facts on the rugby field.    Slapgat just will not make it anymore.      
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