OPINION: In the end we may wonder what all the fuss was about.
When the All Blacks name their 33-man squad on Thursday it will be made up of the players who have served them well previously. Why would it be any other way?
It is hard to remember a year in which so many All Blacks were in such good form in Super Rugby. Barely any will need the prodding and cajoling of the All Blacks coaches to get the best out of them. The Super Rugby franchises have done a magnificent job.
The Chiefs' Nathan Harris is a big man the All Blacks selectors have shown a lot of faith in.
Jordie Barrett is likely to be the headline. It's a wonderful choice. Conservative selectors such as myself may have got cold feet and held him back in favour of another forward but this current lot aren't that way inclined.
Probably, Warren Gatland would not have picked Jordie, as he didn't pick George Ford, Finn Russell or Garry Ringrose. But Steve Hansen and co are sending out a clear message - yes you'll likely be even better in six months' time but you're also good enough now.
So the attention now turns to the starting XV.
Injury-permitting it largely picks itself but there are two positions that may come down to the wire - hooker and halfback.
TJ Perenara is flying. He is the form No 9 in the country and his running game, defence and short kicking game is better than that of Aaron Smith.
The Highlander's form has been good but regardless of how the British and Irish Lions fare against the Blues on Wednesday evening they will target the All Blacks around the fringes with the strong running games of both Rhys Webb and Conor Murray.
The biggest mistake New Zealand could make is to take the performance of Scotland halfback Greig Laidlaw against the NZ Provincial Barbarians and assume that has set the tone for Lions halfback play for the rest of the tour.
It won't. Murray and Webb will challenge the All Blacks' defence closer in and Perenara is the best equipped to cope with it.
Yet Smith has one factor in his favour. If the All Blacks are planning to kick a lot and put up a high number of contestable kicks then he remains the man.
It is a huge part of his game, and it is also an area where Perenara has a slight weakness. For the Hurricane it's not so much an accuracy issue but the length of time he takes to get the ball from hand to foot. There's a slight delay there and that can give charge-down opportunities.
The Hurricanes just don't kick anywhere near as much as the Highlanders and the All Blacks selection at No 9 may come down to what style they want to play. Still, Perenara's form has been enough to make me waver. Earlier in the season Smith was still a fairly obvious choice but Perenara is challenging that thinking.
At hooker, the consensus pick seems to be Codie Taylor but that overlooks Nathan Harris.
The All Blacks have been quite clear in the past about the pecking order at hooker. When Dane Coles has been fit, he's the No 1, but when Harris has been fit he has been the second choice.
Taylor's form has been good for the Crusaders this year but I suspect of the three fit hookers now available for the All Blacks, Harris and Liam Coltman are strongest scrummagers.
Quietly, Harris has made a strong return at the Chiefs from his serious knee injury. He has improved their scrum and is getting around the field well.
His additional bulk appeals in an area we know the Lions will target. He would be my choice for the earlier exchanges.
- Stuff.co.nz
