Lions with 14 men for 60min win

What are you saying Dave….spell it out.

The rule is not brittle…there is a strong statistical link between red cards and points scored by the team that benefits. To be precise over many data points it’s 0.25points per minute. Thus the Boks who benefitted by a net 40minutes, benefitted by a net 10 points. Which I believe is the point you are trying to dispute Dave. Read the extract and let it all go…we were lucky, just enjoy the good fortune.

……

‘When looking at historical red card data from the Six Nations tournament, one thing became evident very early in the process – there wasn’t a lot of data available. In fact, only 4 red cards existed in the data from between 2014-2020 and only 2 of them met the inclusion criteria. For the purposes of developing a more robust model, we elected to expand the analysis across many competitions with the hopes of obtaining more data points which met our inclusion criteria. Competitions that were considered in this analysis were limited to:

• Super Rugby (2012-2020)

• Guinness Pro 14 (2012-2020)

• Gallagher Premiership (2013-2020)

• Top 14 (2014-2020)

• Six Nations Tournament (2014-2020)

• The Rugby Championship (2014-2020)

• World Rugby Spring and Fall International test matches (2012-2020)

• Rugby World Cup (2015, 2019)

From this very large pool of potential data points we were able to identify 155 games which met the inclusion criteria for the study. From the data, we then identified the team that gained the player advantage from the red card and then calculated the net change in score from the time of the red card to the end of the game. We elected to calculate the net change in score rather than the points scored by the team with the player advantage because it is possible for the team playing short-handed to score, and in fact this happened more often than you would think. A red card doesn’t automatically mean that scoring will be one-way traffic in favour of the team with the player advantage. The average of the net change in score was calculated as the net Expected Points (nEP) for the red card, and these were plotted against the Time Remaining in the game (Figure 1).’

‘If we look at the equation of the line (y = 0.241x), the slope indicates that for each minute following a red card, the team with the player advantage will score 0.241 net points. Again, this is a scenario where it may be better to trade off some accuracy for increased understanding by simply rounding the slope to 0.25 points. Thus for the sake of simplicity it may be easier to remember that the team with the red card advantage should score a quarter of a point per minute following the red card.’

Oh ffs Dave you know the loss of a foward has a huge effect….one game doesn’t negate 155.

Hahaha….could I use the taal?

What the poor mozzietard omits in his calculations is that the wee abs came into the RWC with a bad disciplinary record and earned their red card. There are consequences to actions. So according to mozzie the consequences were 10 points. Having dicipline is part of the requirements of playing winning rugby the. The wee abs lacked disciple. 

As for being a man down it can galvanise a side. Who will forget the Sharks beating the crusaders when down to 13 men.

In any event you cant complain if you are fairly given a red card then say the other side didn't deserve their win because you fairly got a red card.

As usual ou mozzzietard is just being his usual befuddled self. I fear he will get worse as time goes by.

Believe it not it was not the Boks fault the wee abs got a red. It was their lack of discipline. It was a Weakness and they lost a player because of it. Their fault.

Plus nobody can say that that they would have won if they didn't get a red. Its all speculation. Stick to the hard facts. 

The fact is mozzietard has been trying ever since our previous RWC win to demean the Boks win as a means of trashing Rassie. That is what is behind all this - FACT.  A bitter guy whose nose is firmly out of joint because Rassie and the Boks made an utter fool of him. His cred is shot. 

Boks win second RWC under Rassie and Du Toit is man of the match. It couldn't possibly have been worse for the jackasses . It drove poor Doos out of his mind and left fake Bok supporter Mozzzietard seething! The whining began immediately, Doos and Mozzie were inconsolable. In their grief they revealed their true selves and it wasn't pretty.

No need to debate the point….the study was extensive, over 150 games with cards. The finding is the team a man up should score a point every 4 minutes, while a man up. The Boks were a man up for 40 minutes….so they should have been 10 points up at the end of the game.

They were one point up and scored no tries. A win yes, but  hardly  something to celebrate on Second New Year’s.

We should be so much more lethal given our talent, instead we have been coached into this defensive miasma.

Hahahahahahahahahahaha. 

Somebody give the snowflake a fresh box of tissues! 

Drat those useless Boks and their dumb coach winIng the RWC for a second time (after all I had to say!) And making a monkey of me BOO HOO HOO!

Grow up Mozz you were dead wrong about the Boks and Rassie. 

Get on board the Rassie train Mozzietard. Then if we won the RWC for a third time you could at least save some face and be happy about it. Think about your position if you continue to bad mouth Rassie and he wins again. Think of the damage to date of your cred. A third win by Rassie would be the end of mozart credibility wise. 

...'n wen is 'n wen.

...the exception proves the rule?

There are a lot of matches where a red at the start actually motivates the side and make them play better than before the card...our loss to Ireland at Newlands 2016 or 2017 when CJ Stander got red springs to mind...and last years RWC final...we were in total control up to the red, but things started to swing gradually after the red...Bokke might have relaxed a bit...who knows, but wr played better vs 14 than vs 15 psychological, but there was definitely something....

Yes but…..the data includes all those psychological effects. And the results, totally logically, show the red carded team is at a significant disadvantage.

Why didn’t we win convincingly against 14 men. Because our game plan was defense and kicking. So even if there was space to be exploited we were never going to use it. 

Our kick and defend game plan under Eluckmiss reduces every match to an arm wrestle. We will never be out of it, but we also never win without angst against good teams.

The team that performed in the final was NZ, it was a gallant fight.

"Yes but…..the data includes all those psychological effects. And the results, totally logically, show the red carded team is at a significant disadvantage."

Ofcourse...but if you're honest, you'll agree that we were more in control before the card than after...we relaxed after the card...got complacent...gave them a foot in the door.

Well Draad being honest, in the period before the red, there was also the yellow to Frizell…at minute 2.00..  Overall it’s hard to say we were in control at any time when the other team scored the only try, dominated with 60% possession, twice the clean breaks and 37 defenders beaten to 14.

The only things we really controlled were scrums after Ox came on…and the goal kicking Mo’unga having missed at minute 6o and Barrett missing the potential match winner at minute 74.

Well, it looked like Frizell deliberately leg rolled Bongi, which took him out of the match...IMO he could be lucky not to get red...NZ wasn't in control of their aggression because of preasure...hence the cards.

The pressure at minute 2.00 caused Frizzel to get carded. You can’t be serious Draad. And by the way I do think his transgression could have got a red, it looked cynical.

The pressure was applied in the match at Twickers already... before the RWC...