This year is clearly going to be spot the talent year, as would be selectors "see" that something special that makes a player a great. But mostly these selectors will be deluding themselves. Ninety percent of these bright lights will fail. And teams that have too many youngsters in the mix early, will have a rocky start to the season.
Often arm chair selectors are fooled by effort. Guys who put in huge work in the CC are deemed to be ready to shine in the S15. Strauss, Taute and a host of Lions come to mind.
But consider who has emerged at Bok level over the last four years.....Lambie, Hougaard, Brussouw and Bismarck. That's a small crop, not because the others never had chances, but because you need mega talent to succeed at test or indeed S15 level.
Playing hard is not enough. If that was the only criterion players like Taute, Ndungane, Vermaak, Potgieter and Stegman would already be superstars. If you're a backline player you need a step, a boot.....pace. If you're a forward like Potgieter it's hard to beat basic physics.
But the commodity most often missed is a rugby brain.....the ability to scan the field and see opportunity. If Spies had a rugby brain, he would be a great. Fransie, Lambie and Hougaard all have rugby brains. They see the opportunity. Matfield is the greatest lock I've seen....not because of his physical talents, but because he has vision other locks don't possess.
So this year I expect to be on the negative side of the new talent argument......and, as usual, I expect to be right 90% of the time.


