An absolute write-off, or a win for the ages?
What will it be for the heavily depleted Chiefs in their Super Rugby clash against the Sharks in Durban on Sunday morning (NZ time)?
By rights, the tourists should be no chance of getting up at Jonsson Kings Park, what with all their All Blacks forced to fly home and attend a national camp, a total of 20 players from their originally-contracted squad of 38 unavailable when injuries are also considered, and up against a Sharks side who have shown a great liking for Kiwi flesh.
Captain Charlie Ngatai shifts from fullback to centre - where he hasn't started a Super Rugby game since 2015.
Then again, if there was a team used to battling away without key personnel, and squeezing the most out of their more unheralded crew, it is indeed the Chiefs, who will take some confidence from a not-pretty-but-effective win over the Stormers last weekend, and have absolutely no pressure on their shoulders when they take the park for this one.
In expected dry and sunny conditions, it could make the visitors extra dangerous, embracing that nothing-to-lose attitude and giving the ball some air.
Marty McKenzie replaces brother Damian at first five-eighth for his first Super Rugby start at No 10 in three years.
It could make for quite the open affair, with these two topping the competition for clean breaks - the Chiefs averaging 15.2 per game and the Sharks 14.4 - and the Durban-based side also top in offloads, with openside flanker Jean-Luc du Preez's 27 being the most of anyone going around.
But there's no getting past just how much the Chiefs will feel the affect of no Brodie Retallick and Damian McKenzie - the physical colossus and the the livewire spark - who have both single-handedly kept their team in the hunt previously.
McKenzie has remarkably played in the Chiefs' last 52 successive games, going back to his debut year in 2015. He's replaced by brother Marty, who last started a Super Rugby match at No 10 three years ago, in his previous stint at the club, which preceded nine appearances off the bench for the Crusaders the past two years.
Sharks first five-eighth Robert du Preez has the best goalkicking stats in the competition.
He will mark up against impressive Sharks pivot Robert du Preez, who in his first year since joining from the Stormers has made a big impact alongside brothers Jean-Luc and Dan, and under father Robert as coach, kicking the most goals in the competition (54) and at the best accuracy (90 per cent).
That alone should ensure the Chiefs are on high alert in the discipline department, playing for a third successive week under the same referee, Mike Fraser.
The Chiefs can be buoyed by what their pack produced last weekend, and for a team with a propping injury crisis it's remarkable they top the charts for scrum success (95 per cent), with the performances of Karl Tu'inukuafe and Angus Ta'avao continuing to wow, with that duo among a group of eight in the 23 against the Sharks who didn't even have a contract at season's start.
While the Chiefs face an uphill climb to keep themselves in with a shot of pushing for a home quarterfinal, the Sharks are in the midst of a tight tussle in the South African conference. With a four-draw, one-win, six-loss record, they have struggled for consistency, and are coming off a 39-33 loss to the Bulls in Pretoria.
However, they have certainly got up for the contests against the Kiwis, and feel they may mentally rise to the challenge of the stronger sides. They blew the Blues apart in Auckland, then the following week had the Hurricanes beaten in Napier, only for the hosts to score after the siren, before they thrashed the Highlanders in Durban 38-12 a fortnight ago.
Sharks: Curwin Bosch, Sbu Nkosi, Lukhanyo Am, Andre Esterhuizen, Lwazi Mvovo, Robert du Preez, Louis Schreuder, Daniel du Preez, Jean-Luc du Preez, Philip van der Walt, Ruan Botha (c), Tyler Paul, Thomas du Toit, Akker van der Merwe, Tendai Mtawarira. Reserves: Franco Marais, Juan Schoeman, Ross Geldenhuys, Stephan Lewies, Jacques Vermeulen, Cameron Wright, Marius Louw, Makazole Mapimpi.
Chiefs: Shaun Stevenson, Sean Wainui, Charlie Ngatai (c), Johnny Fa'auli, Solomon Alaimalo, Marty McKenzie, Brad Weber, Pita Gus Sowakula, Liam Messam, Luke Jacobson, Michael Allardice, Tyler Ardron, Angus Ta'avao, Liam Polwart, Karl Tu'inukuafe. Reserves: Samisoni Taukei'aho, Sam Prattley, Sefo Kautai, Jesse Parete, Matt Matich, Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi, Luteru Laulala, Toni Pulu.
- Stuff
