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Only one question remains...

Started by Augenöffner9 REPLIES724 VIEWS· 19 Aug 2019, 01:00
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AU
Augenöffner
Pro6,974 posts
AU
AugenöffnerPro6,974 posts
19 Aug 2019, 01:00
#1
19 Aug 2019, 01:00#1

Do you believe in this Bok team in this year's World Cup? I'm not asking for a comparison to prior campaigns, or bickering about past teams or coaches. Simply answer, do you believe in this team, this coaching staff to have a successful campaign at this year's World Cup? If yes, what fills you with confidence; if no, why the lack of optimism?

sharkbok
sharkbok
Captain23,249 posts
sharkbok
sharkbokCaptain23,249 posts
19 Aug 2019, 02:00
#2
19 Aug 2019, 02:00#2
Yes, I think the Boks can win. As with all teams, injuries to key players could make or break the road. An injury to Pollard, Vermuelen, Marx could be show stoppers. 
Positives -
  1. Defence (Rassie/Neighnabers Umbrella)
  2. Breakdown skills (Marx, Vermuelen and Francios Louw)
  3. Fast pitches of Japan may favour Southern Hemisphere teams
  4. The outside backs of the Boks can change games- if they get involved.. . The skip pass tactic has been used well to get wings into the game. 
Negatives- 
  1. Midfield is still an issue
  2. Willie Leroux's lack of form as a playmaker.
  3. Mostly Northern Hemisphere refs (3-4 French)
  4. Lineout throws (Marx has been poor here. Bongi's throw is more reliable at this stage)
  5. Territory kicking- Other teams are stronger here. Faff's box kicks are not contestable

MO
Mozart
Captain49,914 posts
MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
19 Aug 2019, 03:20
#3
19 Aug 2019, 03:20#3
I think the confidence in the Boks is understandable given the RC win, but a bit overdone. 1 The Aussies beat more defenders, had more clean breaks and a higher tackle percentage.....but they never converted. 2 NewZealand made 4 times as many clean breaks/ beat 3 times as many defenders and out-gained us by 160 metres. But were toothless in the red zone against an enveloping defence 3 Even the first Bargie game saw us with less territory and possession. But we had a whopping 5 penalties from their outclassed scrum which took them out of the game. 4 The second Bargie test was not that big a deal....it was a scrambled Bok team, but we were desperately lucky to win. So I don't think we are as good as we think we are. But if we beat NZ.....we likely have to beat Scotland and England which seems a reasonable prospect. In the final it would still likely be the ABs, either path we take. If we lose to the ABs in September we have to probably go through Ireland, Wales and the ABs again....balanced teams not vulnerable to our physical strengths. That would be hard to do. It's not easy to win the WC. Probability analysis would say: .3x.9x.5x.3=.04......along path 1 .7x.6x.5x.3=.063.....along path 2, higher somewhat counter intuitively because the chances of entering that path are greater. So adding the two paths somewhere around 10%, an artificially low number because I haven't followed all the branches eg there is a chance we wont face the ABs in the final. If you do all those calculations perhaps we get to 13%. As do Wales, Ireland, England and Oz.....totaling 65%. Maybe all the rest including France, Scotland and the Bargies have 5%......leaving the ABs at about 30%. That's mostly guesswork....but in a bit of a probability framework.
DE
Denny
Captain12,893 posts
DE
DennyCaptain12,893 posts
19 Aug 2019, 04:40
#4
19 Aug 2019, 04:40#4

What fills me with optimism is that the Boks compared to all other teams have a very simple game in the Rush Defense, even better is that it gels with their DNA. It's easy to apply and isn't technical dependent. Erasmus has followed Jake's example by cutting his cloth to the material in hand.

Can they win the RWC? Of course they can, they're a good a bet as any in the most open WC ever.

CL
clevermike
Coach57,555 posts
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
19 Aug 2019, 05:54
#5
19 Aug 2019, 05:54#5

The poor fools do not understand rugby and the fact that for the first time in more than a decade at least we have a positive approach to the game  and team by the players,   The nay-sayers have all been preaching doom since the appointment of Erasmus and they have as yet failed to congratulate the RC Trophy lot of sheisters around,  

    

DE
Denny
Captain12,893 posts
DE
DennyCaptain12,893 posts
19 Aug 2019, 05:58
#6
19 Aug 2019, 05:58#6
There's never been a lack of a positive approach, reality stepped in as it eventually does....
RE
redsman
Pro1,710 posts
RE
redsmanPro1,710 posts
20 Aug 2019, 07:15
#7
20 Aug 2019, 07:15#7

Yes I do think - good forward pack / good half / excellent 5/8 and electric pace out wide. Has some world best players in certain positions... Marx for example is best hooker in world rugby imo.  

But like most teams will need to keep key players on the field for whole tournament... I think no one has depth like kiwis across the park and in every position...

RE
redsman
Pro1,710 posts
RE
redsmanPro1,710 posts
20 Aug 2019, 07:18
#8
20 Aug 2019, 07:18#8

Out of curiosity - last year when the kiwis won in SA - I noticed an inordinate number of moronic substitutions late in the game that basically gifted the kiwis a comeback...

Was this out of colour politics or just poor coaching?

If this element of SA rugby continues I would reason big handicap to win RWC vs Kiwi / England / IReland / Aust... and maybe Wales and France.

sharkbok
sharkbok
Captain23,249 posts
sharkbok
sharkbokCaptain23,249 posts
20 Aug 2019, 16:16
#9
20 Aug 2019, 16:16#9
@Redsman, not sure if the substitutions were to get more equal representation on the field. Had their not been so many substitutions, the game was in the bag. I think the flank sub that came on the field was not a merit selection. I think it was Notshe. Taking Marx off was a disaster, as he was taking on the whole All Black pack by himself. I think Bongi took his place, but with the draft of substitutions, things became totally disorganised. If there had been fewer subs it was an opportunity to put 30 points on the All Blacks
Fortunately, the current squad of 31 will all be merit selections with the best players in their respective positions. There is now more talent to choose from in more positions than ever before.The front row for the first time has lots of depth in black players. 

AU
Augenöffner
Pro6,974 posts
AU
AugenöffnerPro6,974 posts
20 Aug 2019, 19:23
#10
20 Aug 2019, 19:23#10

I don't think we'll have a merit squad (white or black), but it's mostly there. The depth in the back three and front rows, as you say, very good. Probably is the best I can recall in all the years I have been following the Boks. Lots of C+ range players who can do a solid job in a pinch, which is nice. 

As for New Zealand. I believe their depth is exaggerated. Even in 2006-2007, when they had the greatest depth, they still built variations around a core group. In the end, even their first choices in several positions were exposed. Right now, they have maybe two good centres. Questions over their half backs, front row, lock, fullback, wing. Not as secure as some believe. 

— END OF THREAD —

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