Pollard not genius won the WC

The usual phenomenon of ascribing a win to the most popular factor is rife on the Board. It’s genius, it’s the bomb squad, it’s defense, it’s physicality. On balance genius  wins the day. Even posters who were calling Erasmus an ‘egotistical fool’  days before the WC final are now calling him a genius. And those who were trashing him five weeks ago have totally forgotten that…..all anxious to wrap themselves in the flag.

Success has many fathers….but is genius the right father? A very simple exercise says nope. Here are the facts in all the significant matches: 

Ireland 8 to 13….kick pts missed 11 to 0….adjusted score 19 to 13

France 29 to 28…kick pts missed 2 to 5….adjusted score 31 to 33

England 16 to 15….kick pts missed 0 to 0……adjusted score 16 to 15

All Blacks  12 to 11 …..kicks pts missed 0 to 5 ….adjusted score …..12 to 16

So what does that all tell us. Firstly it says if Pollard was our flyhalf, all other things being equal, we comfortably beat Ireland.

Secondly it says if Ramos kicked like Pollard, or if Pollard missed that long bomb…..we lose to France.

Thirdly it confirms by the tiniest margin we were the better team in general play than England.

And finally, even overlooking the 10 point handicap of the red card, NZ wins if they had a kicker as secure as Pollard.

So in general play we beat Ireland, lost to France, beat England and lost to NZ. Pollard, not genius was the reason we won the knockout games, in all other aspects we were equal or slightly behind. And the absence of Pollard was the main factor in the Irish loss.

Then when you consider that genius thought a fourth scrum half was more important than selecting Pollard who was going to be ready in a few weeks…..it’s even clearer genius got many things wrong ….Pollard not genius won the WC.

Mozart

Individuals does not win WC's  - it is plain stupid to even make such a statement.    Pollards 4 kicks at goal produced the points - but the team must combine to ensure that those points are  protected.

A nybody who claim otherwise are talking  BS.          

A whole lot of "if's". 

The Boks could have put another 15 points on the All Blacks if Marx never got injured.
The lineouts were a shambles, and usually the base to setup most Bok attacking movements

Usually, for every lineout the Boks set up near the opposition line, their is at least 33% chance of scoring a try, and also a decent chance of winning a kickable penalty. 

Un fucking believeable!!!

Okay so that’s exactly the response I expected…..the team creates the penalties, they are a consequence of general play. Right. I couldn’t agree more. I accept the Boks and their opponents’ general play created the penalties and the conversions.

That’s a given.

All I’m doing is giving our opponents a kicker as reliable as Pollard. If I do that we lose against France and we lose against New Zealand.

The only valid counter argument is to say the opponents’ kicks were more difficult. But they weren’t, if anything they were easier. This logic drives one to the conclusion we were marginally weaker in general play than our opponents and Pollard made the difference.

Another counter argument would be that playing Pollard weakened our general play. But that’s also not true Pollard made several incisive runs and his out of hand kicking was excellent. His defense wasn’t great but nor was Libbok’s.

Absent Pollard we don’t win the WC.

Draad is amazed by this revelation….how could one man be so crucial. Pollard kicks at 90% and we lose the WC and Rassie planned it all.

LOL!

Rugby is a team game...Pollard was a vital cog in the clockwork, but on his own...?....your spinning won't change anything...we won with Rassie, DdA, PSDT and Kolisi playing crucial parts,...sory you can't  comprehend it. ..you see, you're the one diminishing some of the effort, not me...I value the team effort, youre the one looking for excuses why we should not have won...etc...pathetic...I wasted enough time on this BS...cary on...over and out on this silly topic...cheers.

Poor old Draad wants to stand there in his kort broekie with his beer pens hanging over the elastic, waving his flag. And he doesn’t want anybody to spoil his fun

...probably time for another skin...he's been around in these forums for atleast 14 years...he'll be back...

Dumbass don’t you get it , I give you all those inputs. All I do is change the kicker and we lose. This is a clear instance of where one player, stunningly left out of the original team, is the difference between winning and losing.

The media hasn’t made this disturbingly obvious point because it’s more sexy to talk about Dud Toit and narcissist that coaches the team.

Look, knockout rugby comes down to a few key moments that are largely out of the coaches' hands. You can coach a team to be competent and competitive, and that has certainly been done, we can give that to Rasnaber and co. no question. The Boks are top 5 competitive, and we build that largely on our disruptive defense.

Not that we can't attack when needed, we can. In knockout games we tend to choose not to, with a few exceptions like the previous World Cup final. In 2023 against England, this negative strategy nearly got us knocked out of the tournament. It was the wrong strategy to give a toothless England so much respect. That game exposed a major weakness in our knockout game strategy - if the opposition doesn't give us free errors to feed on, we struggle to score. England were clinical and just about beat us by playing no rugby at all, compounded by the fact that we didn't play any rugby either. 

As Moz has already pointed out, if Steward had cleared deep at the end, we were probably knocked out in the semis by a far inferior side. If there was any coaching genius on display, I didn't see it. Thank Ox and Pollard and Steward for that one.

In the final the All Blacks had a bad bounce early in the game which would have been a try for them had it been a little more favorable. Kolisi's white line fever sunk a possible Bok try. These things are not under a coach's control. Small player decisions that the coaching staff have little to do with swing these games. And the red card cannot be discounted - we would not have discounted it if it went our way and we lost.

In a one point victory, coach genius is a hard theory to accept. Especially if one goal kick makes the difference. Trying to convince me that the team with 29 on the board has a genius coach and the team with 28 has an ordinary coach is a bit of a stretch. I'd say they both have competent coaches who have built competitive teams, and one or two bad bounces, a bit of luck or a bad decision or two on the field swung it one way or the other.

Rugby doesn't work like a statistical equation...you don't get to manipulate the variables like that...the end result is not merely the sum of the parts...for the good teams it's more...way more for the great teams...but you refuse to see that...dumbass LOL...you're not half as smart as you think you are...pull your head out of your arse and grow up outoppie, life's too short for your silly games...you calling anyone else a narcissist...LOLOLOL... cheers for real this time.

Pakie...sometimes you need a little luck, but luck won't take you all the way...this is the best Bok team since Naas, Carel and Danie's team of the mid 80s...if not better...and there's room for improvement,  yet some are looking for re asons to deride that...it p!$$e$ me off no end.

Probably too abstract for you Draad…..just keep waving the flag. Deus has always moved on to new challenges, he will be back making great contributions when there is rugby to be played. As for calling somebody behind a computer screen a coward, what exactly does bravery look like?

...does calling other people supid make you feel better about yourself?...asking for a friend...

I feel fine about myself….always have. We are different….I enjoy the debate, you like posting pictures of the Boks with the cup. I treated your rant with a bit of humor…you went low with ‘outoppie’ as if that’s new news. Do what you like, but try to not be boring.

You went lower long before the outoppie remark...and outoppie is much more endearing than insulting in Afrikaans...bit it's probably too abstract...

Grow up outoppie was endearing …..sure I believe you.

Oh dear, looks like Moffie is still feeling dispirited!

Bwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahahahahahahahahahahaha!

"Grow up outoppie was endearing …..sure I believe you."

...I  didn't intend it to be endearing,  but also not to be highly insulting as you took it ...certainly less insulting than calling you stupid...

Please call me stupid if you like……it’s hardly realistic, now is it?

...no, it would be stupid, that's why I didn't...but I had enough of pigeon chess...it's not fun anymore...you're good at baiting, but I'm gonna really tr y passing ....cheers.

Actually you have me wrong. I believe everything I wrote about the WC. I think we got very lucky, I think the game plan was bankrupt, I believe the card ruined the game and I believe the Boks could be so much better than that.

I think we got the message, Saffex !  

Happy birthday becs, now drinking age?

Moz, I attacked some of your ideas,  not your person...being called an outoppie is not an insult...cheers...it's  late here.