If the last 3 years have shown anything, Ireland has been the most consistent team in world rugby. So in theory, they should win. Logic is probably saying the Irish are favourites, but it is hard to not have some emotional bias.
If the Irish win, I think it will be because they get ahead early and have an unsurmountable lead.
Off the bat, a few things could go badly wrong for the Boks:
1. Lineout throws:
A few years ago, Bongi was throwing the ball in perfectly - better even than Marx. However, over the last 2 seasons, his throws have been average at best.
The Boks have 3 hookers in the match-day squad. (or 3 openside loose forwards and one hooker). This seems to be why Vermeulen is not in the match-day squad.
Perhaps Rassnaber wants both reserve hookers to get a shot throwing the ball in (Although the Tonga test might be better to experiment?)
2. No pole kicker.
Manie has been a good pole kicker, but his test performance must be around 55%. If the Boks struggle to score tries, we are going to need a pole kicker. Faff has been better than Manie, but he will probably get subbed earlier.
3. Settled Squad vs. Musical ChairsThe Irish have started each match with a first-choice team, just making tweaks and subs. So they have lots of continuity.
Unlike the Boks, who have played more with B-team players. (except for Scotland).
Some weeks of back-to-back games are good for combinations and getting the team to peak as the competition progresses.
If the score is close in the last 60 minutes, I think the Nuclear Bomb Squad will be able to see it through. If the Boks need to chase the game with tries, not having Willie Leroux as an impact could prevent that.
