Predictions if you dare........talk is cheap

Hahahahaha 

AB's by 12

Moz, I really want to believe it too...and I did every year, but 2 years in a row in NZ? Unheard of, can't be!!!

WTH, Boks by 1!

New Zealand to win - End of story......................   

Beaten to the punch, I was going to post a prediction thread later today! 

Under Rassie, the Boks have scored one try less in each of their tests: 6:5 in Wellington, 3:4 in Pretoria. The important thing is that there have been tries. 

Revisiting Wellington 2018
The All Blacks dominated with a commanding a possession a territory stat. In the first half, they had 68% possession and territory; in the second 81% possession and 86% territory. The Boks were under immense pressure throughout, but displayed enough strike power to exploit New Zealand's all out attack for 5 tries, that with a makeshift midfield after the departure of Damian and Am through injury. It was a committed hearty effort. Some will point to defence being the key, but the Boks made 83% of their tackles, often creating unnecessary pressure by failing to make first up tackles, or losing control of the ball and exceedingly poor kicking. So this pressure was in part created by them. New Zealand completed only 80% of their tackles, so despite their attacking prowess, they carried something of a glass jaw. 

Revisiting Ellis Park 2018
This was an entirely different game. The Bok's kicking game ended up being at it's very best that season, as the Boks enjoy 69% possession and 75% territory. The All Blacks were placed in a choke hold and struggled to break free. Despite dominating all of the attacking stats, the Boks couldn't quite put the All Blacks to the sword, with something fairly blunt running and a lack of directness from 12 ending promising attacking positions. In the second half, the wheels came off as the bench was unloaded. Horrendous unforced individual errors left the door open for New Zealand to stage a courageous comeback and end a rare whitewash of die Schwarzwelle. Those replacements, and a couple of more experienced players, arguably lacked the composure to seal the result. 

Wellington 2019
This is almost an identical team to the one that beat New Zealand at the same venue last year, but with a stronger bench. It'll be interesting to see how the loose trio of Thor, Steph and Kwagga compete against New Zealand. In Thor the Boks have their premier 8 back, a world class all round player and great leader. In Kwagga they have a dynamic player that can play all across the back row who had the highest RPI at #8 this season. A potential breakdown menace. The backline looks solid, despite not fielding our best inside centre. I believe we hold an edge in the pack. New Zealand conceded a lot of penalties in the last game and struggled to put away a Los Pumas side who only made 59% of their tackles and some trouble at lineout time. Despite all of their failings in that game, and the past year, they still possess immense strike power, being able to move the ball effectively in the blink of an eye. The Boks need to demonstrate that they can assert themselves physically and accurately for the full 80 minutes, taking their opportunities. Against this All Black side, there will most certainly be opportunities. I anticipate an intense power struggle up front, one we can win. If the Boks can gain parity at the breakdown and win the aerial battle, they'll have control the game again. If they can defend more accurately, they can absorb the All Black attack. The Bok's defending against Australia wasn't good, though some of those players won't be facing New Zealand on Saturday. The onus is on New Zealand to prove that their fading aura of invincibility is only temporary. They need a convincing victory against a quality opponent and to lay a marker for the World Cup. This will be the last time these two sides meet before the World Cup. They are at home, and are expected to win. So the pressure is on them to get a result. 

Prediction
South Africa usually lose these games. The most gut-wrenching nature of those loses is the lack of composure to steal a close game. If the Boks could have done that over the past  twenty years, they'd actually lead have a positive win record over the All Blacks. New Zealand trade emotion for meticulous detail and analytics, and, in my opinion, that has resulted in a more consistent side with more consistent performances. The Boks by contrast are an emotional side who can rise to the occasion when the stakes are high enough, but inexplicably fall to the wayside against lesser foes. I believe the Boks will be emotionally up for this game, I also believe they have the talent to hurt New Zealand. There is a belief they can win, a belief based on a Rocky type win at the same venue last year and a dominant performance that shackled the much vaunted All Black attack. Despite the history of the fixture, I'll back the Boks to be the team that can make New Zealand pay for their weaknesses. A close game: The Boks by 4. 

Aaargh!!!!!  It hurts us.

All Blacks by 8, so much quality in that backline.

If they weren't resting Luamape, I'd have said by more.

I will happily eat humble pie though if the Boks pull it off although no team has won the 3 Nations/Rugby Championship and then gone on to lift the Webb Ellis trophy.

It's going to be one of those games that if the Boks do not turn up with exuberance they'll be blown away. This is going to be an all out assault. 

I looked at the comments of Hansen after the Argentina test - when he said the team was "raw" and  came up with a new lot of layers who are not raw?

So lets take a careful look at the AB team:-

 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Ben Smith, 13 Jack Goodhue, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Rieko Ioane, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Matt Todd, 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Joe Moody
Replacements:

16 Dane Coles, 17 Ofa Tuungafasi, 18 Angus Ta’avao, 19 Vaea Fifita, 20 Dalton Papalii, 21 Aaron Smith, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 George Bridge

Outside Backs - A huge improvement on the team playing the Argentinians=  Jordie Barrett is not a test level player.

Centers  -  Goodhue is a top class player and tio my mind just slightly better than Lienert-Brown.  SBW is way past has best and was under-performing when he faced De Allende previously - center pairing weakened

Back Row .  Read is an over the hill player who was not performing well during the last year and Todd is not on par with Ardie Savea - funny selection    Frizell is an improvement though.

Locks       -  Whitelock is fast becoming a reputation player 

I do not understand the team selection - eg no Reece, no Luamape, no Ardie Savea.  There are 8 Crusader layers in the starting line-up and of those at least 2 are under-performing for  while the past year at least.

My Prediction -  The Springboks by 8 points. 

Takes a brave man to bet against a "get the jarpy" Oz ref. Organhuffer mentions the close losses in nz but of course fails to identify the cause. No ways can you keep losing close matches without ref bias being a significant cause.

Boks by 5 as per Moz.

Big tests for Cheslin Kolbe, Kwagga and Mostert.

I also think the Argentinians will beat the Aussies by about 20 points.   Last w eek I gave the AB's a win by 6 points over Argentina and the Springboks to beat the Aussies by 12 points - so not far out at all.  This week I am optimistic that I will be nearer the mark in both games.  

Pumas and Argie games are commonly close. They play open rugby, very structured set plays. In fact, both fixtures involving these two last year were by far the most entertaining of the RC. There were lots of plays to review. Fantastic ball-in-hand rugby. Australia will probably win it though. They have a knack of getting away with it even when they seem to be on the ropes.   

Like Australia going to win against the Springboks?  

Abs by 10.

The weather will be fine, there's been lil rain this week, firm underfoot with a bit of wind.

Bokke by 4.

I predicted a Bok win. 

"Pumas and Argie games are close."

Perhaps not.