Preview: New Zealand v South Africa; Rugby 365

Go back to the beginning of the 20th century and the battle between All Blacks and Springboks was regarded as the battle for unofficial first place in the rugby world.

Now it is still the case even though there is now a World Cup to make World Champions and International Rugby Board ranking to suggest who is No.1 and who No.2.

This week there is contest between No.1 and No.2.

That suggests close encounter of the classical kind, but will it be?

The momentum since 1992 has been largely with New Zealand.

Before then South Africa had actually led in a contest between the two countries.

After the Springboks had won in New Zealand in 1937 and after that - when it went with the home sides till after the 1981 tour - South Africa led 20-15 in Tests.

Now it is 50-34 in favour of New Zealand, who have been less affected by playing in South Africa than South Africa have been by playing in New Zealand.

Since 1994, the score has been 19-3 to New Zealand in New Zealand and 16-11 to New Zealand in South Africa.

This match is in New Zealand, which is not the only reason why one could expect a New Zealand victory.

There is also the way the two teams are playing and their results against all-comers.

In the last two years New Zealand have played 34 matches, winning 31, drawing two and losing to England.

South Africa have played 30, winning 22, drawing two and losing to England, Australia and, four times, New Zealand.

New Zealand have the advantage of a settled side. They give every impression of knowing who there side is - who is first choice and who is replacement.

South Africa certainly do not give that impression. Who really is their flyhalf and who are their centres? Their backline appears disfunctional, finding positioning difficult for one thing, which affects both defence and attack. They start slowly from the base and have not the hand speed to give their wings a chance. They lack variety where the All Blacks are full of bright ideas, including that lethal grubber. In the last match, even creative Willie le Roux was bereft of ideas, kicking to no good effect at all.

One hopes desperately for some creativity from them.

In last Saturday's match against Australia, they had just one creative moment - one in 80 minutes - when they brought Bryan Habana in from the blindside wing.

By and large Springbok wings are ball chasers, while All Black wings play and seem to be given chances with simple ease.

If South Africa are to rely solely on their forwards, almost playing eight against 15, they will suffer a heavy defeat.

In fact South Africa have their backs to the wall - but then that is a better position for the Springboks than when they are favourites. They have not lacked fight in the past, but found overconfidence a destructive force. They have no reason to be overconfident this time and one would expect a fighting spirit amongst them. If they are to win, they will have to do so off the wall.

The Springboks' line-outs are excellent when Victor Matfield is there and they can cope well with orthodox kick-offs. They scrummed well last week but that was against Australia who were demolished by New Zealand in Auckland. They have three rugged loose forwards but if they are content to let tackle/rucks just take their course without vigorous competition, they will suffer there against the All Blacks who relish rucking.

If the Springboks kick as waywardly as they have in their first three Tests of the Rugby Championship, they will suffer.

The All Blacks always seem to get at least three players back to the catcher and counterattack with zest. The Springboks are willing to watch Le Roux on his own and wait for him to do something.

There is also the matter of discipline, though on last week's stats there seems little to choose between the two sides.

At home New Zealand conceded nine penalties; away from home South Africa conceded 10. However, the Springboks suffered two demoralising blows - the penalty against Vermeulen and the yellow card for Habana. The All Blacks experienced no such setback.

Goal-kicking counts. There is nothing to take from last week's performance as both sides have changed goal-kickers, both outstanding when on form.

Of course, the weather will play a part. It rained on the first and third rounds of the 2014 Rugby Championship and rain is again forecast this weekend.

The Springboks were not good in the Pretoria rain and the All Blacks were not good in the Sydney rain. The Springboks were not good in the Perth rain, but the All Blacks were better in the Napier rain.

But rain and cold could again have an effect on the match.

Players to Watch

For New Zealand: There are lots but those who have been giving the most joy this year are probably Ben Smith, big Julian Savea who has many more skills than was first apparent, perky will-o'-the-wisp Aaron Smith, Brodie Retallick and Dane Coles.

For South Africa: Jean de Villiers, the gentlemanly captain, in the hope that he has a chance to enjoy his 100th Test and no suffer the same ignominy as gentlemanly Bryan Habana. Then there will be the hope that Willie le Roux will be back shedding magic into the game and that Duane Vermeulen will be his powerful self.

Head to Head: There will be a contest between the two flyhalves, the experienced Aaron Cruden and the neophyte Handré Pollard, both players of skill, both willing to take on the defence, both brave on defence and both their team's goal-kicker. Forceful Duane Vermeulen against skilled, confident Kieran Read. Brodie Retallick, such an effective, all-round forward against young Eben Etzebeth who has had a quiet return from injury. The fight for the tackle ball between possibly the best-ever in Richie McCaw and the determined Francois Louw who may well have a serious ally in Marcell Coetzee. Tight five vs tight five - to build a platform for dominance.

Recent results:
2013: New Zealand won 38-27, Johannesburg
2013: New Zealand won 29-15, Auckland
2012: New Zealand won 32-16, Soweto
2012: New Zealand won 21-11, Dunedin
2011: South Africa won 18-5, Port Elizabeth
2011: New Zealand won 40-7, Wellington
2010: New Zealand won 29-22, Soweto
2010: New Zealand won 31-17, Wellington
2010: New Zealand won 32-12, Auckland
2009: South Africa won 32-29, Hamilton
2009: South Africa won 31-19, Durban
2009: South Africa won 28-19, Bloemfontein

Prediction: It's hard to predict a Springbok victory in the light of history old and new. It's hard to predict a Springbok victory when comparing playing styles and the ability to score points. And so we think the All Blacks will win by more than 15.

Teams

New Zealand: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Ben Smith, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (captain), 6 Steven Luatua, 5 Jeremy Thrush, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Replacements: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Joe Moody, 18 Ben Franks, 19 Patrick Tuipulotu, 20 Sam Cane, 21 TJ Perenara, 22 Beauden Barrett, 23 Cory Jane.

South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Cornal Hendricks, 13 Jan Serfontein, 12 Jean de Villiers (captain), 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Marcell Coetzee, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Bismarck du Plessis, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Marcel van der Merwe, 19 Lodewyk de Jager, 20 Warren Whiteley, 21 Francois Hougaard, 22 Pat Lambie, 23 Damian de Allende.

Date: Saturday, 13 September 2014
Venue: Westpac Stadium, Wellington
Kick-off: 19.35 (09.35 SA time; 07.35 GMT)
Expected weather: There is a 60 percent chance of rain in Wellington, which is no surprise, with a high of 14°C and a minimum of 10°C
Referee: Jérôme Garcès (France)
Assistant referees: Pascal Gauzère (France), Rohan Hoffmann (Australia)
TMO: Peter Marshall (Australia)

By Paul Dobson

It's difficult to comment on the AB's dominance particularly in NZ since the early 1990's because player for player I do not believe there's a huge difference if any at all...just compare the population of players in each country for a start.

I surmise that the root of the problem definitely vests in the psychological recesses of the mindsets of coaches which filter and infect those similar recesses into the players and the SA rugby fraternity as a whole. My understanding of away games for the Boks in NZ have huge pressure there in their minds brought on by the fear...this is at the bottom of their minds. Away games will in most cases have this fear, particularly because past experiences feed fear. If a side is good, logically away games should not differ to the EXTENT that they do. Obviously it is a disadvantage but not to the degree that records show. Fields,conditions, crowd support and travel obviously do play a part but not to the degree of the record book.

The other factor that bedevils us is the short vision and chopping and changing of players within a small period of time. No long term vision, the SA rugby public is demanding on instant results, coaches live in fear of being axed if immediate results don't come at a drop of the hat.

We go into a flat spin in panic and it gets worse.

Sticking to experience with older players, that incidentally do deliver on occassions but to the detrement of younger talent, leaves huge dents and flaws in our attack and defensive armoury into the future. We must have more confidence with the younger stars and have a progressive approach. Keep our mind on getting the game right and balanced...play good rugby and the results will come, rather than focusing on results only at any cost...if you understand what I'm trying to say.

Thank goodness, Meyer has at long last made progress on our number 10 but still keeps Ruan Pienaar...the timing it is argued is wrong to fall on such young shoulders of Pollard...an enormous undertaking in NZ but the vision is right and having PL as the spare wheel makes sense.

The greatest fear that I have is that if this risk has a disasterous result, more panic and chopping and changing will take place, instead of sticking to these youngsters and getting it right eventually.

Coaches and rugby hierachy are selfish and bend to public demands and fear leads back to conservatism that exacerbates the situation.

I predict a loss to the AB's, I only hope it's a lot closer than public expectations, if a victory then a huge bonus but even a loss is not to cause reactions and amendments with the younger players...show confidence in the youth and they'll eventually grow with experience and learn to swim in the deep end.

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