Certainties
Outside Backs (5)
Kolbe, Nkosi, Mapimpi
Centers (3)
De Allende, Kriel, Am
Flyhalf (2)
Pollard
Scrummies (3)
De Klerk, Jantjies, Reinach
Loosies (5)
Du Toit, Vermeulen, Kolisi
Locks (3)
Etzebeth, De Jager
Tight-heads (3)
Nyakane, Malherbe
Hookers (3)
Mbonambi, Marx, Brits
Loose-heads (3)
Mtawarira, Kitshoff
Disqualifications
The following have disqualified themselves from selection due to questionable to poor performances:-
Gelant, Steyn, Esterhuizen, Louw, Thomas du Toit
Potential inclusions
Taking into account the above - there are the following potential vacancies:-
Outside backs (2)
Flyhalf (1)
Loosies (2)
Locks (1)
Tight-head (1)
Loose-head (1)
So lets look at the potential vacancies
Outside Backs
In dealing with this aspect I must be borne in mind that at least one of the candidates needs to cover for Le Roux at full back as well,
I could not find anyone meeting that requirement with the exception of perhaps Lleyds. Although he did very little of value today he did not really disgrace himself like some other players did. Initially I though in view of his record at Montpellier that Steyn may be a contender to cover for Le Roux, but it is obvious he is too slow to be played in that position. Erasmus tried him out at center - but he was a serious flop.
So lets accept that Lleyds is one potential candidate - but who else could be considered, There is one player who did not play in the present test series this year due to injury - that could cover both the vacancy at flyhalf and full back as well as perhaps a center position - Willemse. In 2018 Erasmus asked his franchise to play him at full back, but on his return match yesterday he played at flyhalf where he did well. Did Erasmus ask WP to play him at flyhalf yesterday? I believe that Willemse will be in the squad, but in which position? He can cover both the full back and flyhalf positions. I believe it may be both though my initial impression was tat it would likely be at flyhalf, since Lleyds could be the cover for the full back position. So where to now with the cvacant outside back position - any suggestions?
Flyhalf
The immediate name coming to the fore is Jantjies - but looking at both tests he played in this year and his record in Super Rugby this year, I have serious reservations about him. He was iffy in the Aussie game and just slightly less so today. Initially his kicking at goal yesterday was iffy. His attacking play was non-existent and defense poor,
I will not be surprised at all if he is not in the WC squad. Would rather think that Erasmus may select Willemse ahead of him to cover the flyhalf position.
Loosies
In reality there are four candidates for the 2 vacant positions - namely Smith, Coetzee. Louw and Elstadt. Although Smith is a very active player he was not effective on test level in none of the tests he played in. Louw was the mystery man of the series - used in two tests coming from the bench, His contribution in all games played was one possession turnover - while his defense disappeared totally from sight. Unfortunately Coetzee was injured early today and in that short period did as much as Louw did in all games he played in. Elstadt is a very hard worker - he made 19 tackles today missing 3.
My guiss is the two vacancies will be filled by Coetzee and Elstadt
Locks
The flavor of the month according to some is Mostert and to some extent Snyman, The problem remains that Mostert has a physical deficiency as a lock leaving to him being cut out of line-out work in the last test he played in. His defense is problematic, bearing in mind that despite a high level of activity he missed too many tackles in his last test,
Snyman on the other hand has his own problems - he has thus far not really transferred his Super Rugby form to test level form. Yesterday his performance was very questionable.
I think it i s a difficult choice to make between the two players - but my choice would be Snyman due to his physicality in Tight 5 play.
Props
Koch is not the most solid scrummager around - but his work rate outside of scrumming is high - so he is the most likely candidate as a Tight-head, If I was Erasmus I would pick Pierre Schoeman as a loose-head, All the other contenders range from poor to extra-poor.
