The sight of the influential All Black lock Brodie Retallick being led from the field during the drawn test with the Springboks would have sent feelings of discomfort through many of the coaches preparing for the Rugby World Cup, not just New Zealand’s Steve Hansen.
The shoulder dislocation that has made Retallick doubtful for the opening World Cup pool game against the same opponents in Yokohama on 21 September, and possibly for the entire tournament depending how he responds to treatment, was an uncomfortable reminder to those readying themselves for Japan of how easily the best laid plans of mice and men can go awry.
Retallick is a key player in the New Zealand team, and it may not have been a coincidence that he was missing in the defeats the All Blacks suffered last year to the Boks and Ireland. Hansen would have been doing a lot of planning around Retallick’s combination of power and skill, but now he may have to go without him.
Something similar of course can happen to any coach building up to the World Cup, and while the focus is on performance in the warm-up phase, there’s also much holding of thumbs that the key players will get through unscathed. In some areas, injuries are less potentially disruptive than others.
For instance the Boks can probably just about get away with injuries to locks or loose-forwards, and perhaps centres and wings, but given that we have yet to see the back-up flyhalf, meaning the third-ranked, tested yet, you’d imagine that injuries to either Handre Pollard or Elton Jantjies would come as a massive blow to the Bok World Cup hopes.
They can happen during the tournament of course, and the top three southern hemisphere teams (New Zealand, Australia and South Africa) all suffered crucial injuries during the course of the 2011 tournament in New Zealand.
RASSIE’S SELECTION POLICY PROVIDING CRUCIAL SAFE-GUARD
However, Bok coach Rassie Erasmus’ selection policy has made injuries less of a potential debilitation now than would have been the case back then, when Peter de Villiers admitted that perhaps he’d made a mistake by not testing his depth enough in the previous three years of the four-year cycle.(yes even if it ment losing a test or two and spoiling his win loss ratio Dr Moz!!)
And after two games in the Rugby Championship, and with three matches still to be played before they get to the start of the global tournament in Yokahama, Erasmus’ willingness to give all his candidates a run in the first two games has paid off. We haven’t seen the northern hemisphere teams play warm-up games, but at this point, you’d say that the Rugby Championship log accurately reflects where the southern teams are in the build-up.(Please note Rassie bashers!)
By comfortably beating Australia with a team that featured just three players who were to start against the All Blacks, the Boks laid down an early marker and then by following up with an away draw against the World Cup champions, they ensured that the wave of momentum started in the first week was retained.
Obviously, the Boks would have preferred a win but in many ways, a draw was the perfect result in that it ensured the feel-good vibe is retained without expectations becoming unrealistic and thus ratcheting up the pressure.
AREAS TO WORK ON
The Boks would have left Westpac Stadium knowing they have areas to work on. Their lineout work wasn’t flush, they gave away too many penalties in the second half, the first-half try scored by the All Blacks and which for a long time looked likely to be the difference between the teams was a reminder that against those opponents you simply can’t afford mistakes anywhere on the field.
Coupled with that, the likelihood that at some point they will make good on a half-chance opportunity ratchets up the need for your own team to grab scoring opportunities when they come. There weren’t any glaring missed opportunities, but given their territorial and possession dominance in the first 40 minutes, they had no business being behind at the break.
But the X-factor moment featuring Cheslin Kolbe and Herschel Jantjies made up for that and while Erasmus emphasised how lucky his team was afterwards to escape with the draw, you could probably argue that his side was much luckier last year when they won.
PRESS DEFENCE IS CLOSING THE GAP
This was a game that confirmed the discomfort the All Blacks feel when confronted by the Bok press defence and while they did win a lot of ball in the second half and injected impressive tempo, it never really felt like the Kiwis might run away with it. They are struggling to get the width to their game that made them so dangerous in the first part of this four-year World Cup cycle.
Talking of press defence, it is hard when watching the Boks apply their strategy not to think back to October 2017 and the media discourse, particularly on this website, prior to the Bok clash with the All Blacks at Newlands.
The South Africans had, of course, lost 57-0 in the first round away game in Albany and it was suggested that one big mistake the Boks, then coached by Allister Coetzee, had made was to ignore the lessons drummed out by the British and Irish Lions in the drawn series played just before that Rugby Championship.
It was the Lions’ defensive system built around the Welsh press template that took the All Blacks out of their comfort zone. Of course, you can’t change your whole defensive system in a few weeks but there was more of a linespeed element in Cape Town nonetheless and it resulted in a far closer game, with the Boks only just losing by a point.
Since then, with the arrival of Jacques Nienaber, the defensive plan has evolved over time to a point where the huge chasm that appeared to exist between the All Blacks and the Boks in Albany less than two years ago and the year before that in Durban has now been closed. If there is anyone who says with any conviction that he or she knows which team is going to win in Yokohama, it would be a pretty lone voice.
POOL GAME SET UP PERFECTLY
The World Cup pool game has been set up perfectly, and before we start nodding our head in agreement with Erasmus that the Boks were lucky in this most recent game, let’s also not forget that with just a bit of luck the Boks could have won three in a row now against their biggest rivals. Indeed, you could almost say four, because that Newlands game mentioned earlier was also that close.
What comes next is the Championship decider against the Pumas in Salta. Many might scoff and say the Championship title should be rendered irrelevant in a World Cup year but that would be wrong - winning the silverware that has eluded them in the southern hemisphere competition since 2009 would surely provide a further boost to the Bok confidence.
Already it appears that we may be in for a re-run of the scenario that presented itself the last time the Boks won the World Cup in 2007. Back then the Super Rugby success enjoyed by the Bulls and the Sharks, who met in that year’s final, created the wave of momentum that South African rugby rode right into the World Cup itself.
If the Boks can beat Argentina and the All Blacks are denied a bonus point against Australia in Perth the same day, or they can beat the Pumas by enough points to erase whatever inroads the All Blacks might have made on the current 14-point advantage the South Africans enjoy in the points differential column, then the Boks will go to Japan as southern hemisphere champions.
No, that is no guarantee of World Cup success and yes, the Wallabies won the Tri-Nations in 2011 and the Championship in 2015 and didn’t carry that momentum into the World Cup itself. But given how rarely the Boks do win the Sanzaar tournament (just four times in two and a half decades) it would provide a boost similar to the one provided by Super 14 success 12 years ago.
It is imperative that the Boks retain that momentum right into September and the World Cup itself. If they do, they might just ride the wave right through to the final in Yokohama on 2 November.
MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS
While the Bok ship is ploughing ahead and sailing strongly, their chief rivals probably have more questions still than answers. Hansen appears uncertain of his midfield, with Sonny Bill Williams heading back to the Mitre Cup this week to regain some of his old form there. He did provide the great pass that set up the only All Black try, but isn't the strong presence and off-loading factor he was previously.
The South African success at placing pressure on Richie Mo'unga meant that the experiment of playing the Crusaders flyhalf and Beauden Barrett in the same team wasn't a resounding success, but Hansen should feel pleased with the way Barrett came through at fullback. Presented with the extra space he has from that position, he is a dangerous player. Bar rat is the supreme wee ab ballerina for sure!)
The Wallabies stood up from their opening defeat by beating Argentina and these days any Australian rugby win is something to celebrate, but in reality, it was no more than should have been expected given that the Pumas had to travel from Argentina and left out some key players.
The Pumas will be disappointed that they didn't take their chances at Suncorp Stadium, a venue where the Wallabies do tend to enjoy success, but they will probably agree they were a little flat. They will be a lot sharper when the Springboks arrive in Salta two weeks from now.
