RC Predictions 2018 (Round 5)

South Africa vs Australia 

There is no sugar coating it, Australia are on the ropes as Cheika desperately fights to save himself. A victory over the Boks in Brisbane brought a short reprieve to the mounting pressure, but a loss to Argentina fueled it all the more. The fans are becoming more vocal in their disapproval, and we've already seen an altercation with a fan and a Wallaby which resulted in talented loose forward Tui ruling himself out for the remainder of the year. The Boks, however, find themselves fresh from taking the most prized scalp of them all. Can they make amends for that limp showing in Dingo country? Or will they undo their good work? Rassie has been given a boost with news that star playmake Willie is available for selection. 

Odds:

South Africa: 3/8

Australia: 11/4

Draw: 40/1

Argentina vs New Zealand 

Los Pumas have faced die Schwarzwelle eleven times at home since they first hosted them in 1985 at Buenos Aires. Aside from a 21 all draw in the second test of that year, they have lost every one. Worse yet, the All Blacks average 39 points in the Rugby Championship era. This to Los Pumas' paltry 14. Yet, they find themselves against an adversary missing their captain. Could this be the moment for Argentina to finally get one over the reigning champs or will their cavalier style be exposed again? They lost exciting wing Moyano, who ripped through Australia and currently leads the tournament for defenders beaten. On the otherhand, the World Champions are still smarting from their shock defeat to the men from the Republic, who successfully carried forth an uprising, eventually sacking HQ. 

Odds:

Argentina: 15/2

New Zealand: 1/8

Draw: 50/1

PREDICTIONS

1. Auge: Boks by 7; Kiwis by 17
   
2. Bluebok: Boks by 8; Kiwis by 11
3. Denny: Boks by 12; Kiwis by 20
4. Wardad: Roos by 2; Kiwis by 9
5. CleverMike: Boks by 1; Kiwis by 24
6. Blikkies: Roos by 8; Kiwis by 25

AO

It all depends on team selection.   Th Springboks can become undone with two defensive sieves playing at 12 and 10.

If Pollard is to move to 12 then Willemse is a must at 10.   I would rather have Willie le Roux at 15 and Willemse at 12 and retain Pollard at 10.

In the 2017 Under 20 WC Bosch played at 10 and Willemse at 12 for the juniors.  Bosch failed and the younger Willemse playing at 12 was a success.  

His defense is much better than Pollard's and that would be a wiser  choice indeed.  

However, I think that and the loosie issue is where the Springboks are weak and suspect.   I think if Erasmus pick Jantjies at 10 and Pollard at 12 it will mean a long and likely poor day at the office for the Springboks.     

I do not think the All Blacks would win by  a margin of less than 21 points against Argentina.    

Will wait for the team selection before making any p rediction.

It's fine, everything can be updated until kickoff. I clearly did it too late last time. 

AO

I participate in the Superbru prediction competition and that is when I will look at what is happening and make my actual predictions based on team s election

Boks by 12

AB's by 20

Aussies by 2 ABs by 9 

How could you show so little faith in the Boks Wardad! 

In the event you dethrone Clever Mike, you will be awarded 'Le Grand Cigare Filtre' . No regrets or relapses on Dr. Auge's watch. 

Wardad might just be right and I have my doubts about a win - but proper teams election could eliminate my doubts.   

There is always a chance of a stuff up. Team selection will be easier in some cases, harder in others. Am will be missed. As will Mapimpi. However, Willie is back and so too Esterhuizen. 

I'll readjust my mental autocorrect. I thought Blobbok had posted for sure. 

My predictions are as follows:-

SA by 1 point

New Zealand by 24 points.

My SA win is based entirely on hope and not fact.   The team itself has too many question marks for real optimism.

Aus by 8. Our loosies will be dominated heavily by Hooper and Pocock. If OZ do have a reliable kicker the winning margin might be even bigger. I will get drunk with joy if I am wrong.

NZ by 25. 

I fear you may be correct Blikkies. I reviewed the Ireland series, he was immense right from the very first play of the game. However, against New Zealand? He was nowhere near as impactful. I have my doubts about Hooper though. No doubt he is a quality player, but it isn't without reason that he is fallen out of favour with the fans.

I believe our ability at the breakdown will depend more on a team effort. We have Marx, Malherbe, Eben, Esterhuizen. We have good cleaners and a pilfer threat of our own. So it isn't entirely one way traffic. 

It'll certainly be interesting. What concerns me the most is that Australia were moving the ball very well against Argentina. They were far more creative than the All Blacks were against us. We usually struggle against that kind of opponent as they stress individual defenders more severely. That's when the likes of Damian become entirely helpless. 

AO

Just two  observations about your latest posting:-

Hooper

Where do get the following from: -

“I have my doubts about Hooper though. No doubt he is a quality player, but it isn't without reason that he is fallen out of favour with the fans.” 

Which fans has he has fallen out of favour with and where did you get that story from?   If it is a myth you yourself have created please admit as such.   You are always on about “plastic” fans – are the Aussies also in that category?

The Center Problem  

I believe your summary of the Aussies taking the balls wider is correct.   However, your problem seems a bit skewed to put it mildly.   De Allende is injured and is not playing today.   So lets make a suggestion – if the Aussies wins today the way is wide open to blame De Allende for the loss.  I am sure that would match up with your normal “facts”

Back to the defense problem though  -   Esterhuizen from his junior years and throughout his Super Rugby and test histories has had one major problem – his porous defense.   So if that problem is found today – just ignore it and carry n regardless

I talk to Australians and predominantly read Aussie sports sites. Don't be so quick to be a contrary Mary, lest you get egg all over your perty dress. The general consensus is that Hooper is an imposter, who is in the King's throne, namely, The no.7 jersey. There are many who don't want him as captain, or in the team.

How would I consider Damian a reason for a loss if he isn't playing? How is that in any way in accordance with my "normal facts". That's borderline unintelligible. 

Keep talking Lügnerin. Even if Esterhuizen were to have a genuinely bad game, something I don't believe will happen, Damian in no way replicates what Esterhuizen do brings to the table or betters it. Esterhuizen has stopping power to bring down 1 to 15. Damian doesn't. Esterhuizen can be left to defend on his own, he doesn't require a support tackle. Damian can't do this. Esterhuizen can be trusted to lead the rush, Rassie hasn't trusted Damian with this responsibility. Is Rassie a BSer? An idiot? I'd like to know why you think Rassie doesn't trust the supposedly better Damian to take on that defensive responsibility. It's usually the 12 who does this.

When I post the video of Esterhuizen's entire season thus far, you'll need a canoe to traverse the egg that will be coming your way! I would throw you a paddle, but your nose is so long from lying, you can use it as a gondola oar. Ende.

EDIT : Updated Odds. 

You talk to many Australians and read their newspaper repots - why not post just one of those?   

Secondly dream on about Esterhuiizen's wonderful defense.  His missed tackle ratio is higher by a major margin than De Allende's - his number of tackles made is lower by an even bigger margin than De Allende's.   

Rassie is not an idiot - he knew De Allende is way better than Esterhuizen in all aspects of play and his selection preference indicates as such.   He always picked De Allende when  he is available.   In the third dead rubber English test he gave Esterhuizen a chance and it did not pay off.   He immediately picked De Allende when he became available and his choice would have been the same for the rest of the tests if  De Allende was not injured.

I have been doing that since June! 

And if you look through my thread history, you'll find a discussion about what the Aussie expectations were going into the Brisbane test. You pay very little attention and make too many assumptions. Diagnosis: Dummheit.

As an aside, I've been following the NRL for many years. It's the preferred code of rugby amongst Aussies. 

Like many a poster I wuz just being contrary ,besides when not playing the ABs I have to back the Wobblies because the 7s team I created from the fruit of me loins are all Aussies.

Picking my son up from the flics last night we spotted some wallabies lurking near our driveway ,once again I have located the whereabouts of the infamous Aussie tight five !

Denny's this week's master prognostic. Clever Mike's brief reign comes to an end. 

@Wardad: I've seen of that love hate Aussie-Kiwi relations quite a bit. Alas, they couldn't deliver. Let's hope they don't find their way to alcohol. We know that only ends in tears, though I wouldn't blame them.