RC Predictions (Round 6)

South Africa vs New Zealand 

Its finally here, the biggest game of the year. A rare opportunity to win back-to-back All Black tests, and questions abound. Can the Boks repeat their defensive heroics, are the All Blacks psychologically made of glass? Is Barrett really the world's best flyhalf? Rassie looks set to reinstate the failed partnership of Damian and Kriel, and Louw is likely to replace Notshe at 8. The Boks have been unable to repel die Schwarzwelle in four attempts at Loftus since readmission, however, they have never lost four consecutive tests on home soil since the very first encounter in 1928. They have thrice halted a fourth capitulation. The task doesn't get any easier as Hansen's charges dismantled Los Pumas with all the veracity of a pack of hyena. If they are in the mood for such physicality, the Kiwis could be dining on biltong on Saturday. 

Odds:

South Africa: 50/13

New Zealand: 1/4

Draw: 40/1

Argentina vs Australia 

Surely, this is Cheika's last opportunity to save his job. The Wallabies were toothless against the Boks for much of the encounter last Saturday. Yet, Los Pumas were very poor themselves. Their s rum being absolutely demolished and their impressive lock duo being subdued. They failed to take advantage the opportunities the did have. The Wallaroos have won comprehensively in Argentina the past couple of years, but their attack, now rated the worst in 40 years of Aussie rugby, was mot quite this lacking. Cheika looks set to end the Beale experiment. Has he returned to his sense? O r is it an act of desperation? Another loss will have the team return to a rabid crowd of howling dingos. 

Odds:

Argentina: 11/13

Australia: 19/16

Draw: 17/14

Predictions 

1. Auge: Kiwis by 12; Wallabies by 10
   
2. Bluebok: Kiwis by 11; Pumas by 5
3. Denny: Boks by 6; Pumas by 11
4. Just_Win: Kiwis by 10; Wallabies by 6
5. CleverMike: Boks by 6; Pumas by 6
6. Wardad: Kiwis by 13; Wallabies by 17
7. Chabad: Kiwis by 11; Pumas by 9
8. Draht: Boks by 2; Pumas by 7
9. Basque: Kiwis by 17; Pumas by 10
10. Mozart: Kiwis by 13; Wallabies by 5
11. Blikkies: Boks by 13; Wallabies by 9

Wait for it - I will put in my prediction tomorrow.  

Wait for it - I will put in my prediction tomorrow.  

Boks by 6

Pumas by 11

I hope you are right Denny. That is exactly the outcome I want. 

You have to recognize that the Boks went into the Wellington test with desperation, not self-belief and confidence.......they have now earned both.

You're right, they have the belief they can actually pull this off. That is by no means a triviality, and could be the catalyst for a win. It's very possible. 

What concerns me is the backlash. The All Blacks played very differently in Wellington to how they normally play against us. Not receiving Kapa O Pango, I just knew they didn't regard the Boks as a real challenge. They've had a rude awakening, and they will be gunning for a no nonsense win. I expect their physicality to be much better and to be more direct and disciplined. Their scrumming was absolutey brutal against Los Pumas. 

We don't have the centres to exert pressure or support any attacking movement. We have a weak link in Kolbe. I like him, and he is very dangerous if we bring him into the attack, but he can be run over. We miss Mapimpi a lot. So that's 4 of our 7 backs who are dubious defenders. Two of whom have a proven record folding entire tests all on their own. No Whiteley is another blow. Maybe Louw has a good game at 8. I honesty don't know which way his inclusion will go. 

We need a big effort, and while it certainly is possible, it'll be harder than Wellington. If the Boks can pull this one off, I'll consider it the most impressive win since the 18-5 victory over the Kiwis in 2011.

The Boks have shown the AB's to be human........this is going to be a process effort regardless of our weaknesses in certain positions. What value do you put in self-belief and confidence?

One thing I know, with your mental state I'm glad you're not fronting as one of the Boks

I can trust my effort. I can't trust Damian to be reliable. I also can't trust Kriel. If you have to shadow key defenders, how much confidence can you have in them? I'm basing this on years of failure. Damian is not worth the benefit of the doubt and Kriel has been very patchy to say the least. All of my concerns are more than reasonable. The All Blacks have already run over Kolbe for a try. No amount of confidence makes these issues go away. The question is, can the Boks win in spite of these vulnerabilities? I hope so. It's possible, but it'll be a grind. 

Relax.....have a Wild Turkey and Coke....it's not as hard as you think.

The only interest I have is to see what strategies Hansen has put in place to counter the rush defence. 

You couldn't ask for a better sunset to the Rugby Championship 2018 .

ABs by 10

Wobblies by 6

Springboks by 6

Argentina by  6

I think that there are problems that can hamper the AB's - namely the travel factor and playing at altitude for the first time this year.

I think the Aussies will also play at altitude for the first time and Salta is not an easy game for them.

As to the AB's I would worry a lot about SBW and he is possibly an early replacement - since the better center is on the bench.

Louw at 8 is a worrying factor - he is not up to standard,   

As to the present scenario the Springboks was desperate in their game in Wellington and possibly down in confidence after two losses against Argentina and Australia - they will have more confidence on Saturday and that may also be a factor.

As per normal poor AO suffer from delusions obstructing his thinking abilities - very normal with him.

Confidence affects energy and conviction, it alone cannot overturn a problem. One of the weakness of Bok rugby is that it's too often reliant upon extreme emotional last stands. New Zealanders are less emotional (not less passionate) and merely solve the problems in front of them. It's more efficient in every way. 

The Wallabies usually score big in Argentina, but they have been stuttering on attack. I'm sure they'd take heart from their game against Los Pumas this year, where they created lots of opportunities. They had little trouble moving the ball. The Puma freestyle running game leaves them open for a suckered punch. This will be their first test at Salta. They've only played In Buenos Aires, Rosario and Mendoza. That said, they've succeed in Mendoza, which has a higher elevation of 2449 feet above sea level. Salta is roughly 3600 feet above sea level. Much of Argentina is situated in rather mountainous regions with some shape elevations. So, if we play there, we aren't likely to be playing anywhere near sea level.

I did a study on this many years ago. Anything between 4000 and 8000 feet is moderate altitude. You have to go to an extreme 14,000 to 20,000 feet before you reach very high. So, the Wallabies won't be playing at high altitude, they will be playing at a higher altitude to anything we have to offer. 

AO

"Salta is roughly 3600 feet above sea level.  So, the Wallabies won't be playing at high altitude, though they will be playing at a higher altitude than anything we have to offer." 

Fact is Salta is 3780 feet above see level and Pretoria 4393 feet above see level.   I cannot always follow your rubbish on site - most is just thumb-sucks, but the above is just plainly wrong.   Johannesburg is 5751 feet above sea level.  I always know that Pretoria - situated in valleys are below the Johannesburg level.

Anyway - I am constantly having to correct your postings and am getting tired of that.

There I no way that at that altitude there are not issues affecting players and although it is not on top of Everest - the altitude has an effect.    

3600 is roughly the altitude of Salta, you just confirmed that Mr. Clever. Why so disagreeable? Furthermore, this is a similar altitude to what Australia are accustomed to playing in for the Wallabies. You've gotten yourself worked up over nothing! 

Being a Mary Mary quite contrary, ends with a kick in one's large derrierey. 

Ok - I will be nice.  Please mote that you have made a mistake in the second part of your comments on higher altitude than anything we have to offer.     

I have made no error. In a little fit you wanted to be disagreeable and made an error yourself. Stop doing these things and there won't be a problem. Ende. 

ABs by 13 Wallabillies by 17

AO

Sure you made no error - but you changed your comments after I pointed out that you were wrong.  So a false claim that there was no error at all is a bad lie and rather an admission that you adjusted the post is what would be the honest way to go.   

NZ 30 SA 19

Arg 24 Austr 15

Arg by 7

Boks by 2 heart.

Blacks by 7 brain 

Yes Draad us Saffas all feel like that but the brain does tell us :

1) In Wellington the AB's made uncharacteristic stupid errors, in judgement and were caught with their pants down.

2) Just plain simple errors.

3) Boks played with real guts and determination and their defense was superb which took the AB's by surprise and caused these errors.

4) AB's will be well prepared for this.

5) AB's won't be affected by hostile Loftus fans...they are not that type of team.

6) Positive things for the Boks as well...they will play for the support and their confidence has been regained.

7) Will this be enough, I doubt it sadly as I believe the AB's although once in awhile are vulnerable but not for long...their outfit is far too outstanding for that.

8) No they are not undefeatable in once offs...France proved that in 3 World Cups (including the final in NZ 2011...there's absolutely nothing in one point in reality.

9) On the Pumas front they are on a rise with new coach and their skills are brilliant but their inconsistencies need to be nipped in the bud.

my guess,.... the AB are going to struggle till the replacements come in,... this is going to be a tough test for the whole team and, especially, for the BB-SBW dupla,... the critics' eyes are going to be focus on them and they need a good performance to keep their incumbent status,.... probably their most important test game 

after being nulified by the boks defense and then having failed to move the backline and control the game against the argies, BB needs to prove he can deliver in tight games and very especially that he can avoid the defensive pressure,... SBW needs another very good performance to prove he deserves the starting spot over Crotty,.... which is a very hard task,....

for what we've seen till the moment I'm not very optimistic and think the BB-SBW pair are going to struggle,... but it's in their hands, let see what they are capable of,... and i hope I'm wrong,... which would mean that BB-SBW can face the hardest opposition with the WC in mind

A. Smith could be in the same boat,... or a very similar one,... with Perenara taking his chances when given and having very solid performances

anyway, if they are not able to deliver a good performance, the bench players will come for the last 30 minutes and form what IMO is the best and most inform AB backline

9. TJ Perenara     10. R. Mo'unga

12. R. Crotty        13. J. Goodhue

11. R. Ioane        14. B. Smith     15. B. Barrett

with this backline the AB should kill the game,... a quite levelled game till that moment

The AB by 17

Argies by 10

There are alot of All Blacks who like to run and play laterally, Crotty is one of those who straightens up the attack and keeps the defence in check. Posing a direct and wide threat is what opens up the game. I've never been sold on Sonny. Jake layed down the blueprint in 2012 when his Brumbies completely shut him down and stalled the imposing Chief attack, forcing them to frustratingly go wide. I don't see where he has the advantage over Crotty in a physical test. I'd go Laumape before Sonny as well.

Then again, it all depends on how the game unfolds. The All Blacks can play off Sonny. It presents a dizzying array of options that opens the game up. It looks to me like the All Blacks are going going to attack with more aggression inside. If they can get that game going, the Boks are going to have their hands full.

The All Black Pack is a pretty robust machine. They can fight fire with fire against the Boks and boast strength from 1 to 8. The Boks are carrying too many passengers.

Kolisi becomes more effective in open play, in space. Hue is a very smart runner with great hands. In fact, he is statistically one of our top 2 attacking threats. It's quite a puzzle. Does his attacking ability compensate for his weaknesses? Can he round out his game? Do we have the game to really make use of his unique abilities?

Overall, I find it hard to choose the Boks over the All Blacks because they have too many options. The big weakness is that New Zealand do not have the kicking game to genuinely dominate a game aerially, though Beauden has shown in the past he can make those kicks - think back to 2013's Ellis Park encounter. 

You can't win every game, but you can fight. It's the tame loss that stings. That, and when the ref ruins the contest. I can be at peace with a fair fight, even when we lose. I don't like it, but I can accept it. 

So their are 7 supporting an AB win by 12,42 points out of ten participants.

In the case of the Wallabies the count is  5 wins by the Wallabies and 4 by the Pumas.

Good luck gentleman and welcome to Mozart making I believe a prediction for the first time this series,  

Boks by 13.

Aus. by 9

We should have been wrong!