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FORUM / RUGBY /  Rugby World Cup draw strongly favors NZ

Rugby World Cup draw strongly favors NZ

Started by oimatey27 REPLIES461 VIEWS· 11 Jul 2014, 19:27
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OI
oimatey
Pro1,870 posts
OI
oimateyPro1,870 posts
11 Jul 2014, 19:27
#1
11 Jul 2014, 19:27#1

From The Roar:


I am looking forward to the real man’s World Cup next year – where men only get stretchered off the field if they’ve broken something and won’t be back five minutes later to prance around.

But unfortunately there is only one team with a real shot at taking home the title: New Zealand.

Australia, England and South Africa will all have very good teams, each capable of winning in their own right, but the nature of the draw will mean that none of these teams will have the legs to beat New Zealand in the final.

Australia and England have the toughest run in the ‘pool of death’, where they have been grouped together with Wales and Fiji. That’s two games against top-10 opponents and another against Fiji, who are no mugs and sit in 11th spot. Ouch.

South Africa aren’t too much better off with three top-10 opponents in Samoa, Scotland and Japan. Although it’s easier than facing Australia, England, Wales and Fiji, this is still tough pool for the South Africans.

Compare that to New Zealand’s pool matches against Argentina (12), Tonga (13), Georgia (15) and Namibia (22) and no one can argue they have shockingly easy run to the quarter-finals.

Some might argue this would leave the Kiwis underdone, with no big games under their belt heading into the next round. But they’ll most likely be up against France or Ireland, which will hardly have them shaking in their boots.

Sure, France have been the Kiwi’s bogey team in World Cups, but it’s hard to see the current side repeating the miracles of past teams.

Meanwhile, in Pool A and B, South Africa will be up against either Australia or England (I’m assuming Wales won’t make it past the pool stage) and the side not playing South Africa will be up against the physical Samoans.

As an Aussie, I’m going to back the Wallabies to win Pool A and beat Samoa in the quarter-final, leaving England to face South Africa.

That brings us to the semi-final, where the Wallabies will face the winner of South Africa or England.

On the other side of the draw, New Zealand will play either France, Ireland or Argentina in their semi-final. The Kiwi’s will have to shift into third gear for this game but should breeze though without too much trouble and be fresh and ready to go for the final.

To be honest, it won’t matter who they play as the second, third and fourth ranked teams in the world will be knackered after playing each other at least once in the lead-up to the final.

At international level, it’s getting tougher and tougher to put in two big performances back-to-back against quality opposition. That intensity only magnifies during a World Cup, where getting knocked out of the tournament is at stake.

Putting in three big performances with a fresh and warmed up New Zealand at the finish line will be almost impossible.

Fortunately, New Zealand is my second favourite team behind Australia, so I’m fairly certain one of my favourite teams will win. But I can’t help feel that it will be a little anti-climactic watching the All Blacks trounce a weary Australia, England or South Africa in the final.


OI
oimatey
Pro1,870 posts
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oimateyPro1,870 posts
11 Jul 2014, 19:51
#2
11 Jul 2014, 19:51#2
South Africa's likely knock-out round opponents:
Quarters: England / Australia.
Semis: NZ.
Final: England / Australia.

If you want to be the best, you gotta beat the best.

sharkbok
sharkbok
Captain23,294 posts
sharkbok
sharkbokCaptain23,294 posts
11 Jul 2014, 20:13
#3
11 Jul 2014, 20:13#3
So the AIG All Blacks have bribed the IRB officials once again. Graeme Henry is right, they must be involved in match fixing and settings.

William Web Ellis is useless and they need to do away with this rubbish format.

OI
oimatey
Pro1,870 posts
OI
oimateyPro1,870 posts
11 Jul 2014, 20:24
#4
11 Jul 2014, 20:24#4
Why they determine the seedings / pools so far in advance is beyond me.

ST
Sun-Tzu
Club Pro713 posts
ST
Sun-TzuClub Pro713 posts
11 Jul 2014, 21:55
#5
11 Jul 2014, 21:55#5
 I posted about this in 2012, South Africa's road to the final could potentially - depending on the form of these sides - be the most difficult of all.

Oimatey, they may not necessarily be the best. New Zealand and Australia were rather poor in 2007; Australia particularly embarrassing. The World Cup will end up like the last irrespective of format; a blatant farce. I can only hope that this will push South Africa further to Europe and we can finally see the combined might of England, France and South Africa overthrow the current regime.
MO
moolaa
Pro2,380 posts
MO
moolaaPro2,380 posts
12 Jul 2014, 04:31
#6
12 Jul 2014, 04:31#6
 Funny how you Saffas didn't have a problem with this format when you had to play the World's 12th ranked team Argentina in the semi in 2007!Oh what short memories you have!!
RE
redsman
Pro1,710 posts
RE
redsmanPro1,710 posts
12 Jul 2014, 07:34
#7
12 Jul 2014, 07:34#7
 AIG obviously rigging the whoel thing sad state of affairs really I just hope they lose so I can pour shite all over their precious cry baby fans.... hahahaba
OI
oimatey
Pro1,870 posts
OI
oimateyPro1,870 posts
12 Jul 2014, 07:50
#8
12 Jul 2014, 07:50#8

 Oh dear moolaa - that's the best comeback you can think of?


2007 ..... let's see, Argentina was ranked 3rd in the world after the RWC. Probably the best team they have ever had. Who knocked out NZ that year? The French team that the Argies beat TWICE in that same RWC, demolishing them in the second game.


NZ had a cakewalk pool draw in 2007 as well so maybe its a good omen !!!



MO
Mozart
Captain49,914 posts
MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
12 Jul 2014, 08:04
#9
12 Jul 2014, 08:04#9
As I recall we played the Bargies  because NZ lost to France, the team that lost to the Bargies. Hell it was hardly our fault that the ABs bombed out. 
WA
Wardad
Pro6,663 posts
WA
WardadPro6,663 posts
12 Jul 2014, 10:27
#10
12 Jul 2014, 10:27#10
 Yeah well like most Kiwis I would rather a much tougher pool , this draw hardly favours the ABS unless you think they wont make it out of the pools i say they were in the Eng/Oz/Wales pool or instance .
WA
Wardad
Pro6,663 posts
WA
WardadPro6,663 posts
12 Jul 2014, 10:32
#11
12 Jul 2014, 10:32#11
 REdsman ya arse wipe ,what a fucking sook you are you drone on about the Wallies and reds but cant be arsed going to watch them something ev en I have done unlike you ya nong ,my brother and I are even going to suncorp to watch the reds/tahs game will even barrack for the reds for  the first time .
MO
moolaa
Pro2,380 posts
MO
moolaaPro2,380 posts
12 Jul 2014, 11:38
#12
12 Jul 2014, 11:38#12
 Oimatey, doesn't excuse the fact that SA had the EASIEST draw ever in a RWC in playing Fiji in the quarters and Argentina in the semis! And the Argies were not ranked 3rd PRIOR to the tournament so don't try that one!
AB
ABasquefan
Pro2,549 posts
AB
ABasquefanPro2,549 posts
12 Jul 2014, 13:31
#13
12 Jul 2014, 13:31#13
 hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

still more than a year for the WC and you saffas and aussies have already begun to cry, to moan, to whine and to make excuses.
That's too much!!
AB
ABasquefan
Pro2,549 posts
AB
ABasquefanPro2,549 posts
12 Jul 2014, 13:41
#14
12 Jul 2014, 13:41#14
 "So the AIG All Blacks have bribed the IRB officials once again."

"The World Cup will end up like the last irrespective of format; a blatant farce."

"AIG obviously rigging the whoel thing sad state of affairs really"

This is really insane, it can only come from sick and disturbed minds.
The RWC format has been the same for years. It's almost the same, if not the same, as the Football WC. It takes into account the last WC results and the IRB rankuing in a given moment combined with a pure raffle.
So WTF has to do NZ or the AIG with it?
JW
Just_win
Captain18,570 posts
JW
Just_winCaptain18,570 posts
12 Jul 2014, 14:11
#15
12 Jul 2014, 14:11#15
The whining has started already but Beeno has been out beeno-ed. He hasn't even posted on this thread yet & this topic is his bread & butter. The whiners have lost their conductor.
The happy but discordant Boks Choir                   
 They will improve when Beeno leads them  
AB
ABasquefan
Pro2,549 posts
AB
ABasquefanPro2,549 posts
12 Jul 2014, 14:18
#16
12 Jul 2014, 14:18#16
 yeah, cloudy, the article and Oimatey's comments are OK. No doubt NZ has an easier way, that's what happens when you make a seed raffle (I'm not sure if this is the appropiate word) and the seeding factors are the results of the recent WC and the IRB rankings and a country, NZ, has been the first in both.
Australia had his chance to avoid his group (which is by far the most difficult one, that's true also) but they lost almost all their matches during the 2012 EOYT and therefore finish in a bad place in the IRB rankings that year and went to that group.

But another thing are the other comments taliking about farce, bribes, rigging. It's really childish to talk about that when the format has been the same for all and for years.
JW
Just_win
Captain18,570 posts
JW
Just_winCaptain18,570 posts
12 Jul 2014, 14:29
#17
12 Jul 2014, 14:29#17
 I agree the article is factual & oimatey's comment are fair enough. The rest of the comments about bribes, etc. are good for a laugh though.
WA
Wardad
Pro6,663 posts
WA
WardadPro6,663 posts
12 Jul 2014, 18:43
#18
12 Jul 2014, 18:43#18
 Seeing as we have not won all the marbles thus far it seems that someone has been neglecting their duties RE the enormous amounts of money in brown paper bags ?Isnt that your job this time JW ? Cloudy got it to the right swiss accounts last time no probs !Seriously anyone who believes that shite probably has a pile of mouldy old teeth under their pillow and should see me quick smart about a swamp......er um "great business opportunity " comes complete with former bridge somewhere in New York .....Wardads curse strikes again , I am 4 f or 4 at Suncorp ,yet to barrack for a winner !
PA
Papamoa
Club Pro683 posts
PA
PapamoaClub Pro683 posts
13 Jul 2014, 08:31
#19
13 Jul 2014, 08:31#19
 Well, sounds pretty sweet to me. Bring it on!!!
DE
Denny
Captain12,893 posts
DE
DennyCaptain12,893 posts
13 Jul 2014, 08:44
#20
13 Jul 2014, 08:44#20
 I think NZ's soft draw might work against them, it helps having a solid hit out leading into the quarters, also there's nothing stiff about SA's draw either....Scotland and Samoa?...get serious!
PA
Papamoa
Club Pro683 posts
PA
PapamoaClub Pro683 posts
13 Jul 2014, 08:52
#21
13 Jul 2014, 08:52#21
 Yeah depends how you look at it as far as injuries go, this can be an advantage to by allowing subs to come on once certain victory is guaranteed instead of playing full strength team for tough contest after tough contest. AB have been capable of grinding out wins under sever pressure over the past few years and are becoming very skilled at winning even when a loss looks imminent.
 Nothing is guaranteed in the RWC as any All Black observer would know .
WA
Wardad
Pro6,663 posts
WA
WardadPro6,663 posts
13 Jul 2014, 12:15
#22
13 Jul 2014, 12:15#22
 Denny makes quite a valid point there ,I doubt that Samoa and ahem.... the poower wee Scots will cause any heart aches ...
GE
generaltit
Pro3,164 posts
GE
generaltitPro3,164 posts
13 Jul 2014, 15:30
#23
13 Jul 2014, 15:30#23
 A soft draw in a pool never favours a possible contender...a pool of death makes you sharper and tougher for what lies ahead...AB's and France were both in Pool A in last world cup and had to play each other twice...SA was in soft pool,Wales,Samoa,Fiji and Namibia  but should have lost to Wales in opening game...ironically we paid for that and inherited BL to settle the price .

The AB's won't favour an easy run...playing minnow sides and tier 2.
MD
Monkey D Luffy
Pro6,277 posts
MD
Monkey D LuffyPro6,277 posts
14 Jul 2014, 19:52
#24
14 Jul 2014, 19:52#24
All Blacks had a piss easy pool in the 2007 RWC, their were many theories around NZ that it was one of many snowballs which added to the avalanche which was the All Blacks 2007 RWC campaign.

but while the All Blacks pool was easy, it dosent mean the Boks 2007 RWC run was hard, i mean they never had to face the All Blacks or the wallabies. All Blacks beat them twice already that year and the wallabies only just lost one of their two test in SA.

Boks 2007 RWC
samoa
england
tonga
USA
fiji
argentina
england

u can talk up argentina all u want, and in 2007 they had a fantastic lottery winning run, but if u think that even at the peak of their powers they are worthy of their rank and title as a tier one rugby nation, then excuse me while i LMAO.

remember, the likes of scotland are also considered tier one nations, and they have never ever beaten the All Blacks or Boks..... oh wait a minute,,,, they have never ever beaten the All Blacks.

the Boks 2007 RWC was easy peasy, but thats the nature of RWCs and the bOks can only play with whats what given to them, just like every one else.
and its also why i think all RWCs are overrated.

u know whats harder then winning a RWC???
- never losing a pool match in the RWC.
something that only the All Blacks have done so far.

- being the IRB No1 ranked team.
three teams have been crowned No1. 4 teams have won RWCs.
on top of that, u only have to be on top of ur game every 4 years for the RWC, while the IRB No1 is evaluated every single test match.
oh and the All Blacks have been No1 for nearly 90% of the time since inception.
sharkbok
sharkbok
Captain23,294 posts
sharkbok
sharkbokCaptain23,294 posts
14 Jul 2014, 20:03
#25
14 Jul 2014, 20:03#25
It should not be possible for the top 3-4 teams to meet each other before the semis. 
A unlucky draw can either be a group like the hosts England have where they have the Wallabies, and Wales in one group. This is 3 of the top 6 teams in the first round.
Or an unlucky draw can be one of the top 3 teams having to play each other before the final. Who ever gets to dodge the other 2 best teams before the final is allways going to have an easy route. 
The William Web Format is to give Northern Hemisphere more chances by allowing the top 3 Southern Hemishphere opportunities to knock each other out enroute to the final.
France never beat any of the top 3 teams (Southern Hemisphere) and made the final in 2011, and England never beat any of the top 3 either and made the finals in 2007.
CL
clevermike
Coach57,555 posts
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
14 Jul 2014, 20:44
#26
14 Jul 2014, 20:44#26
oiimatey
It is very difficult to go against the draws in this case
There are 4 pools and those are based as follows based on the team as applicable in September 2012.   The first function is to determine which teams should be the top teams in each pool.   In this case the teams involved were New Zealand, Australia,  South Africa and France.  As it ended u the pools were as follows: 

Pool A
 Autsralia heads this pool as the number 2 ranked team
One team will come from the teams ranked 5 to 8 - EnglandOne team will come from the teams ranked 9 to 12 -  WalesTwo teams from the teams having to qualify for participation
Pool BSouth Africa heads this pool as the number 3 ranked team
One team will come from the teams ranked 5 to 8    -   SamoaOne team will come from the teams ranked 9 to 12  -   ScotlandTwo teams from the teams having to qualify for participation
Pool CNew Zealand heads this pool as the number 1 ranked team
One team will come from the teams ranked 5 to 8   -   Argentina One team will come from the teams ranked 9 to 12  -  TongaTwo teams from the teams having to qualify for participation
Pool DFrance heads this pool as the number 4 ranked team
One team will come from the teams ranked 5 to 8   -    IrelandOne team will come from the teams ranked 9 to 12  -   ItalyTwo teams from the teams having to qualify for participation
There is no way any country can influence the draws as suggested above.  What is worrisome was the fact that the rat ings were based on the September 1012 ratings and not later ones.  That is why the teams were New Zealand 1 - Australia 2 - South Africa 3 and France 4.
The quarter finals allows for the following:-- QF1: Winner Pool B v Runner-up Pool A
QF2: Winner Pool C v Runner-up Pool D
QF3: Winner Pool A v Runner-up Pool B
QF4: Winner Pool D v Runner-up Pool C

That is the way Quaterfinals are normally played.   It is likely SA may end up playing either England or Australia in the quarters - that could be seriously problematic if Meyer persists with some of his present selections.    We will have to have speed to beat the Aussies and grunt to beat the English.   
No use to start moaning about the draw, etc.  We have as much problems as the  AB's may have - Ireland nearly ran over them in the last test last year and they have a habit of struggling against France in NH conditions.
No team is really assured of winning in the quarterfinals and less so in the semies.  
OI
oimatey
Pro1,870 posts
OI
oimateyPro1,870 posts
14 Jul 2014, 21:55
#27
14 Jul 2014, 21:55#27
Clever,
Neither the article or my comments suggest the draw is rigged - I understand how it works and if there is one thing I'm not its a conspiracy theorist. But certainly the issue remains that the seeding is done far too early and can result in a situation like we have now where the highest current seed NZ will face in pool play is #12 and then likely France in QF who are in total disarray.

MO
moolaa
Pro2,380 posts
MO
moolaaPro2,380 posts
15 Jul 2014, 01:38
#28
15 Jul 2014, 01:38#28

Oimatey, the Frogs in dissaray is a far more dangerous animal than any other team in the comp as the ABs will testify. In 1999 we hammered them by 50 points in June in Wellington, only to get our arses handed to us at Twickers in the RWC Semi.

As an ABs supporter, I'd far rather us play Ireland who have never beaten the ABs (despite somehow blowing it against us in 2013) and have never made it past the QFs in any RWC. Compare Ireland to France who have played in 3 RWC Finals. In my opinion the QF is the most perilous match in the RWC as a team with walkover wins in the Pool matches can find itself extremely underdone for the knockout phase.

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