RWC '23 - Scotland vs South Africa [Predictions]

Summary

The more I look at this lineup, the more I feel worried about the Boks. We have the return of De Allende, which is quite a colossal mistake given how Esterhuizen has yet again proven himself the better option. We have Faf and Libbok at halfback, which must rank as the weakest halfback pairing at top level. There are many vulnerable areas to exploit. However, this is Scotland, and we don't just lose to Scotland, not in a World Cup. They have shown tactical naivety against us over the past few encounters. I don't think they have the conviction to play their way against us, and I also don't think they really know how to best approach a Bok test. We have that tradition and experience that they don't have, and I think that'll be one of the factors that swings it our way. We also still have some good players on the field. Wiese is the kind of performer who produces enough to compensate for the low production of the likes of Steph, Lood, Malherber, Kolisi, Thor et al. Over the past three years, he has been our only assured carrier over the gainline and a solid defender. We have long-range strike power with speed, and Kriel (with a much better strike rate than Am), has the ability to amplify that threat. Scotland will have their moments, but we will punish them for silly mistakes and openings, and this will accumulate to a point where they simply cannot compete. Interestingly, it was Kriel who busted them open in 2014 with a strong showing. 

Prediction: Boks by 17, with a good 4 tries. 

Match Odds

South Africa: 1/6
Draw: 25/1
Scotland: 4/1

Boks by 13 points  

Boks by 14...solid win...please!

The second Kiwi test was an anomaly. We need to play better than we have all year. We've been a sieve, even in those wins. 

The heat is on!!!

No, I’m serious, europe is going through a heat wave and humidity. It’s been 30c. Think the Scot will wilt in the heat tomorrow. 

Go bokke

Never underestimate, the Scot spirit, indomitable, tough, resilient and determined...and very proud in a good way.

Nevertheless could be a step too high...but you never know and could surprise in a "do or die " scenario.

I surmise it will go closer than the pundits are saying.

Our pack is not very strong. We are physically dominated in almost every test. We haven't had a power pack since 2014. On the gainline we have issues. The soft under belly is there. Is a question of whether the Scots can exploit it. I don't think they will. They have the capacity, but they just don't have the tactical acumen to play the Boks and I think they won't impose their game on us. We also habe the refs in out pocket. 

Beanbag is about 13 years out of date. 

Boks 24-12. Jocks to start brightly but fade in the 2nd half. 

Bokke   31 - 12

Weak Points Scotland Can Exploit:

1. Halfbacks: We have a 10 with no physicality or ability to play in the face of any kind of intensity. He plays like a deer in headlights at even the hint of pressure and cannot read play when the game speeds up. Faf can't kick or pass. If we need to apply kick pressure both are unequipped to win that battle.
2. Loose Trio: We have one test quality loosie in Wiese. The other two cannot defend or carry. Neither can win a real a breakdown battle.
3. Defence: The Bok's don't have stopping power on the line, and we are weak around the fringes. Our primary rushers are very reactive and passive. They can be moved around. The backs are extremely vulnerable.

1. They must rush up hard in the interior. Bring the Boks down early. Seal off the outside at all costs. The Boks need and want space from a passive line. They cannot function under pressure. 
2. The Boks gang tackle. They must shift the point of contact. The Boks fold like a deck of cards when teams sustain the attack through offloads and change the angles and points of attack. The Boks are not assured defenders in isolation. Spread them out, but there's no need to play too far from the previous ruck. 
3. Conditioning: The Boks are not very fit. Make them soak up pressure, their structures become laboured later in the game.
4. Territory: Pin the Boks back, don't let them run at you.
5. 16th Man: The Scots are going to have to soak up some 16th man pressure. We saw the All Blacks do it with tries that were gifted by player 16 in the first test. This is just one of those things. They'll need some attitude in their 22 to keep the Boks out under duress.