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FORUM / RUGBY /  SA Coaching win rates through WC 2019

SA Coaching win rates through WC 2019

Started by Mozart17 REPLIES617 VIEWS· 01 Mar 2018, 17:44
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MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
01 Mar 2018, 17:44
#1
01 Mar 2018, 17:44#1
1992: John Williams - 20% win rate 1993: Ian McIntosh - 33% 1994: Kitch Christie - 100% 1996: Andre Markgraaff - 61% 1997: Carel du Plessis - 37% 1997: Nick Mallett - 71% 2000: Harry Viljoen - 53% 2002: Rudolf Straeuli - 52% 2004: Jake White - 67% 2008: Peter de Villiers - 62% 2012: Heyneke Meyer - 67% 2016: Allister Coetzee 44% 2018: Rassie Erasmus - 46% through 12/18.
sharkbok
sharkbokCaptain23,256 posts
01 Mar 2018, 18:00
#2
01 Mar 2018, 18:00#2
It is amazing that some were worse than Coetzee, although they did not lose to Italy. 
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
01 Mar 2018, 19:07
#3
01 Mar 2018, 19:07#3

Neither did  they lose against Japan,

However,  lets look at Mozart forecast  of a 46%  winning record under Erasmus,   That at best is a rubbish forecast based on zero facts other than the standard Mozart prejudice since no tests has been played at all.   We will have to remember this gem and remind him of this thread.   he is always wise after the fact - so lets see how his only forecast in years - so we will soon see what happens.   I am getting the feeling that he will regret making that forecast for years yo come. and he will then state he never forecasted the rate.         

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
01 Mar 2018, 20:40
#4
01 Mar 2018, 20:40#4
What's wrong D Cup, you moan if I don't forecast.....and then when I do you say it's based on zero facts. But actually it's based on lots of facts. 1 We lose against Wales....lost in 2017, the US venue, tough early challenge. 2 We lose 2 out of 3 against the Poms. They have a better backline and a much more experienced team. 3 We have a traditional Rugby Cup....we beat the Bargies twice, lose to NZ twice and split against Oz. 4 We beat France and Italy on the YE tour, but lose heavily to Ireland at home. That's 6 wins out of 13 tests or 46%. What could change? The Oz series could go either way. We could shock Wales. France could get their act together and win. On balance 46% feels about right. The Stick factor precludes against a more optimistic view.
MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
01 Mar 2018, 20:40
#5
01 Mar 2018, 20:40#5
What's wrong D Cup, you moan if I don't forecast.....and then when I do you say it's based on zero facts. But actually it's based on lots of facts. 1 We lose against Wales....lost in 2017, the US venue, tough early challenge. 2 We lose 2 out of 3 against the Poms. They have a better backline and a much more experienced team. 3 We have a traditional Rugby Cup....we beat the Bargies twice, lose to NZ twice and split against Oz. 4 We beat France and Italy on the YE tour, but lose heavily to Ireland at home. That's 6 wins out of 13 tests or 46%. What could change? The Oz series could go either way. We could shock Wales. France could get their act together and win. On balance 46% feels about right. The Stick factor precludes against a more optimistic view.
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
01 Mar 2018, 20:56
#6
01 Mar 2018, 20:56#6

OK  -  for a change you are not a coward and make a forecast,   Stupid -n but then we ex[ect nothing more from you,   By the way why quote the 2017 results  to indicate that Rassie will achieve the same percentage in 2018 and 2019?  I will remember this threat and we can discus the issue when some tests have been played, 


MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
01 Mar 2018, 21:01
#7
01 Mar 2018, 21:01#7
Well why don't you make your prediction DCup. In fact it might be fun if everybody gives it a go.
DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
01 Mar 2018, 21:03
#8
01 Mar 2018, 21:03#8

So Moz, you thing we'll beat the Poms once this year?...then we'll probably beat Wales too. 

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
01 Mar 2018, 21:11
#9
01 Mar 2018, 21:11#9
I'd put a Wales win at about 60/40. If you say the Poms are 70% likely to win, the chances they win all three is only 35%.....so I'm calling for one Bok win, perhaps in a dead rubber game,
CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
02 Mar 2018, 05:30
#10
02 Mar 2018, 05:30#10

This is a thread to remember so I saved it for future discussion.   

CL
CleanCutPro9,905 posts
02 Mar 2018, 08:45
#11
02 Mar 2018, 08:45#11

I doubt we'll see Rassie slump to below 50%. His Morse code signals from on high should be enough to see us past 50%.


DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
02 Mar 2018, 17:32
#12
02 Mar 2018, 17:32#12

So, Moz, anything above 46% should gow down to Rassie's influence?

MO
MozartCaptain49,914 posts
02 Mar 2018, 17:35
#13
02 Mar 2018, 17:35#13
Stop sitting on the fence Draad, make your prediction.
DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
03 Mar 2018, 11:16
#14
03 Mar 2018, 11:16#14

Moz, I'm atually not sitting on the fence, but there is not alot to be positive about in South African rugby at the moment...except for our tight 5. 

Loosies are a bit unbalanced, but we can probably field an at least par back row.

 9 through to 15 is a huge problem. None of those sellections settled by a long yard. 

So yes, you are probably spot on with your prediction. I'm hoping, with a bit of luck, we can beat that and win a couple of games  more. 

DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
03 Mar 2018, 11:21
#15
03 Mar 2018, 11:21#15

I'll bring back Fransie at 15 and Vermaak at 9.

Rob Dup at 10? Janse van Rensburg at 12? Wings should be the least of our troubles, but there are no clear contenders.

CL
clevermikeCoach57,555 posts
03 Mar 2018, 11:54
#16
03 Mar 2018, 11:54#16

Draad

The Super Rugby Season will show us the way to go, but as you say the Tight 5 is near the best we can field.  

Bearing in mind what we saw last weekend I would add Snyman and on todays showing Schickerling to the mix iro the Tight 5

Our loosies are unsettled at the moment,   I think that if they want a stronger player I wouldthink that Du Toit could play at 8   I am  a great admirer of the following:-

Blindsiders - Du Preez (2), Van Dyk and Wiese

Opensiders :   Kriel, Kwagga and Roelof Smit

The problem with the Du Preez's are that their ball skills is a bit problematic,

The situation as to scrummies is problematic,   Cronje was tried and made some serious mistakes.   Schreuder is playing today and we will see what happens.   I think the future belongs to Ivan van Zyl and Papier.

Iro Flyhalfs I think the ultimate choice will be between Pollard, Du Preez and Willemse

Centers -  In the games played Kriel and De Allende had good game thus far, Then there are Janse van Rensburg, Vorster and Odendaal as well.

Wings   -   I would say the choice should be between Mapimpi, Nkosi, Dyantyi, Combrinck and Van Wyk.

Full back - this is the one real problem for Rassie.   I will actually prefer Willie le Roux in that  position.  Fat Fransie is too slow to be a full back and he is also a serious defensive liability because of the latter defect.   Good under high balls?   I am not sure - he has not played FB or wing for many years;   Aside from that is kicking game is extremely questionable.   In 2014 he made a world record in handing over possession 32 times in Super Rugby  - most of those related to poor kicking,

The problem is that the above does not include enough  quota players to meet government requirements.   Hope Rassie stands up to them and insist on best player selection without regard to race.     




DB
DbDraadCaptain26,388 posts
03 Mar 2018, 12:05
#17
03 Mar 2018, 12:05#17

Maaik, I was jesting about Fransie and Vermaak, to illustrate the hopeless state of our backline. 

I know that there are a few good prospects, but we are in dire straits with the backs. When last did an international top 10 test team field an all new backline? None of our current Bok backline players is world class...

You might have a case for Willie. He has his blunders, but he is streets ahead of Coetzee.

CL
CleanCutPro9,905 posts
03 Mar 2018, 13:12
#18
03 Mar 2018, 13:12#18

What about Gelant?

You guys obviously don't think much of him.

Willie has shown us that he's not the kind we want. Too many stupid decisions at crucial moments in a match. Time to move on to the next generation.

— END OF THREAD —

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