The final round of Super Rugby is upon us and, like last year, everything is still up in the air about who will finish where. The only certainty is the Waratahs will finish on top of the ladder.
This weekend will see four massive games. Blues versus Chiefs, Brumbies versus Force, Crusaders versus Highlanders and Stormers versus Sharks.
Hurricanes have a bye but they will know their fate on Friday night after the first two games. It might even happen after the first game.
They need a Blues victory over a low-scoring Chiefs and the loser of the Brumbies versus Force game to get no bonus points to be safe. Anything less and they are gone.
Blues have an almost impossible scenario. They need a win and that win needs to be by 39 points or more, with four tries. They also need the loser of the Brumbies and Force game to get no bonus points. That would be enough to see them sneak into sixth spot.
The Chiefs need a win, a draw or a loss with two bonus points to jump over the Hurricanes. Anything less and they will miss out. Even with a draw or loss with two bonus points and they can still miss out if the loser of the Brumbies versus Force game get two bonus points as well.
A win guarantees a finals spot, but anything less and they will face a tense two hours waiting for other results.
The Brumbies and Force can both qualify, and the winner of this game is in. If it’s a draw and the Chiefs don’t win they both get through. If the Chiefs lose and don’t get two bonus points and the Brumbies versus Force loser gets a bonus point they are both in.
If the Chiefs win and it’s a draw, both teams can still make it, provided the Highlanders lose and get no bonus points.
The Crusaders have qualified. If they get one bonus point they top the New Zealand conference. If they lose by more than seven to the Highlanders and the Highlanders score four tries then they will lose the conference.
The worst case scenario for them is finishing fourth, and their main battle could be for second place with the Sharks. Currently there are eight points difference between the side, and this could be crucial in the final wash up. If they win by five for example, the Sharks will need to win by 14 or more.
If the Highlanders win with a four-try bonus and keep the Crusaders from getting a bonus point they win the New Zealand conference. If they get one bonus point they won’t finish out of the finals. If they lose with no bonus points, they are out if the Chiefs win and the Brumbies and Force get two points.
The Sharks have the benefit of knowing exactly what they need to do to beat the Crusaders or potentially Highlanders into second place. They can’t finish worse than third but they need to finish higher than the New Zealand conference winner to gain second place. If that is the Crusaders then the eight-point differential comes right into play.
These are the scenarios. This is how I think the results might play out
Blues will roll the Chiefs. The Chiefs have not been good on the road this season and the Blues at home is almost as tough as the Waratahs at home. I think the Chiefs might scratch a bonus point out of the game and slide into sixth spot but fail to pass the Hurricanes.
Brumbies will win at home and lock in a finals spot. Force will scrape a bonus point and dump the Chiefs out of the finals.
The Crusaders will beat the Highlanders and win the New Zealand conference with a four-try bonus. The Highlanders will lock in fifth position and secure an away final to the Brumbies Week 1.
The Sharks will fall to the Stormers, who have gone 160 minutes at home without conceding a point.
This is how I think the finals will work out.
Week 1
Sharks versus Force
Brumbies versus Highlanders
Week 2
Waratahs versus Brumbies
Crusaders versus Sharks
Final
Waratahs versus Crusaders
