Firstly this hit was exactly the same as the hit Kolisi was yellow carded for…..the player was already held in the tackle dropping slightly….the tackler was second in and went straight into the head. The Kolisi tackle was just as much a red as this incident.
Secondly it occurred with 60 minutes to go and Cardiff up by 7 points. The model predicts 2.5 points every ten minutes …..so 15 points as a result of the red. So the model predicts a 22 point victory for Cardiff. It ended at 36 to 14…..a 22 point victory.
Model vindicated.
Which again underscores the Bok 1 point victory with a man up for a net 40 minutes was unconvincing