i would add the following to your list
Wstrhuizeenmm Faf, Kitshof abd Jleyn to yor list,
Hoecver - the perornace of players ove the next 18 monthss may indicate more that is getting down in perforamances, In the case of kitshof he will not play rugby again. I am not sure about De Jager either, On the other hand there are younger players coming through that may up their games making some 30+ players redundent,
In the meantime based on preent performances the following players are eseentials til 2027 based on performsncesL-
Kolbe, De Allende, Pollard, Du Toit, Etzebeth and Marx'
Dave
My problem with Esterhuizen as he always was a fringe player and in the 20 tests he played in he was not performing on test level, If that is the case at 30 years of age - there is zero chance it will change in future, Remember he ws left out of the 2019 RWC and when Kriel was to be replaced Willemse was called up and not Esterhuizen. If De Allende is to be replaced it will not be Estehuizen as he has yet after 20 tests he hd notscored a sincle try on tst level beither did he had any try assists in his perforamnces,
He has other deficiencies as well relating to ball handling and defense - so I would not be surprised if he is left out of the Springbok squad in 2025. I would definitely prefer the 31 year-old Serfotnein ahead of him when it comes to center selection/
Inofar as De Allende is concerned as long as rugby experts eleive e is the bes cneter in the game at present he wills tay on as indispensable. That can change when his perormances goes down and thus year tere as no such decline in evidence,
the sme applies t Malherbe as well. So over th enxt ear to 18 months we will see who is goin g to be considered as selectable and who would miss the boat as well as who the replacements sould be. I think Brwne will pla a roe iro backline selections and he is going o ahve a maor say on backline and loose forward selections in future. Wise will reach the age fo 30 thsis year and in my book he is not irreplaceable as well/ I would rather prefer Hanekom or Roos in the number 8 position in fuiture,
. .
Dave
The players who knocked on a ball with an pen tryline do not ge my vote. He has done it on Under 20 final in 2014 and again in a test in 2019. S ince then he has played littl test rugby since he always was a fringe player, If Willemse was available Esterhuizen would not be in the Springbok squad.
In 2019 it was obvious whn Erasmus after the Kriel injury during the C chose t cll up Willemse ahead of him to replace Kriek, I do not thik Erasmus still regar hinm as a frige player - good on club level and unable to really step up to test level. Estehuizen this year was of more than on. As far as I know he layed in two tests this year and that was against Portugal where he fucked up royally and got a red card as a result anda five week ban to boot. His other test wasagainst Wales - this year a very weak team - but not a house on fire.
I think that with Willemse available he may not make the S prig bok squad this year, Hoever I doubt vey much whether he would be in the Springbok squad this year - but that depends on Browne's opinion of him.
In my opinion Esterhuizen is the same as backline player a Moster as a forward player,
.
Anyone that is 33 is a big risk to take to the World Cup. The only player I would hold onto is Etzebeth because we don't a player of his calibre at 4.
Both Kolisi and De Allende are probably playing their best rugby right now, but I wouldn't bank on them. I would be looking at two sets of players to replace them with.
Hooker and Hannekom are the two that we have to invest.
Willemse and Esterhuizen can cover De Allende.
For Kolisi, only Kwagga is a viable option, van Staeden is not. So I don't like Hannekom at 6, but probably where he'll get his bok opportunity. He is very similar to Ardie Savea, has pace and power for not such a big guy. Great on the deck, so I think he is the one we should go for.
Bongi is no longer the player he once was, he had a good season this year, but you can tell the guy is on his last legs.
The next World Cup is going to be longer and knock out games are starting sooner with a top 16 now. So it will be 4 weeks of knock-out rugby. You need a younger team to get your through that. I don't see the like of Kolisi, Malherbe etc making it past 2 weeks. We saw how gassed they were against England and Rassie pulled both Kolisi and Etsebeth early. I also don't like the hype around Kolis at the moment. He is only successful because of the leadership around him and how Rassie has shielded him
Esterhuizen the "fringe" player's ratings against Scotland this year :
Rugby365
12 Andre Esterhuizen
Produced
some powerful surges, often getting over the advantage line and his 10
bursts yielded more than 50 metres. Add in a team-high 13 tackles and
you realise his true value.
8/10
Rugbypass
12. Andre Esterhuizen – 8.5
Direct
and confrontational, rugby’s biggest inside centre utilised all of his
ballast to routinely get his side over the gainline.
Ending his day as the top backline carrier with 48 meters from 10 carries to go with his 13 tackles, Esterhuizen held his end of the bargain and reminded everyone that he is a genuine contender for Damian de Allende’s jersey.
Pakie
So how mny tries had Esterhuizen scored in that match and how many did he score in the 20 tests he played in? He is a fringe test player at 30 ears of age - will he show improvemens in the next three years?
Cant remember how you made he same forecasts when Meyer selected Mattfield and De villiers in the 2015 WC.
I think thats ome players may go through to the WC - but Etzebeth latest injuries do not look good.
KC
When did Malherbe play in England and looked gassed - must have been in your imagination since he was not in the squad. Try again. .
Cant remember how you made he same forecasts when Meyer selected Mattfield and De villiers in the 2015 WC.
Yes. Yes, I made the same "forecasts" back then About...something. Or other. That Matfield would do the thing and De Villiers the other thing. Yes, I remember it clearly and I can also completely see the connection between that and Andre Esterhuizen in 2024. Genius, really, my foresight, my ability to draw stuff and things together 9 years apart. I mean, Matfield, Esterhuizen, it's right there but few will see it. Brilliant.
Nobody should go until the players replacing them are notably better….that’s the lesson of Mallett, Destroyli and HM, all of whom replaced effective Springboks with speculative newbies.
Libbok replacing Pollard is a classical example that almost lost us the WC.
We absolutely need to select the next team, give them playing opportunities alongside the established team. But then they need to make their case. So far only Fassi, Sacha, Wilco and Hanekom look to have strong credentials. The rest have been competent but a step below our established team.
The age of the team is scary….but we haven’t exposed many youngsters until 2024. So there is a gap in the talent flow. Wilco for example should have had far more test exposure, but is now 30 himself.
It hasn’t been a good example of succession planning, but we will make it worse if we trade down just for youth,
I should have added Williams, I think he has demonstrated he belongs.
In our BombSquad era many of the + 30 brigade need to play half a game only .....................
Rassie has a well thought out plan for the next WC, took me a while before I got to understand what he's on about but now that I do I believe he's way ahead of any other coach. Used to be critical of his weekly changes and playing an unsettled side but if one understands where he's coming from then it all makes sense.
For a start he knows what he's got in experience and he's well aware of the ageing factor, he knows he cannot replace the experience so the plan is to extend their playing careers for one more throw of the dice until the RWC. One way of doing that is to keep the ageing war horses fresh, half a game here with benching and resting in the mix. On the other side of the coin he's growing the ability of if you want the 'B' team so there's no drop off . To play a settled side or your best side every week as suggested on here is just suicide.
Rassie is walking uncharted waters, balancing on a tight rope, at the end of the day he'll have to choose and choose right. He's the man there's no-one better around, I trust him now.