Springboks 2018 Post Mortem & 2019 World Cup Synopsis

Rassie can look back at 2018 as something he can build on. 

However, 2 key problems exist, that if not resolved - then the Boks will have no chance at winning the 2019 World Cup.

The Boks could perhaps beat any team on the day, but they do not have a team that could maintain the form following the course of at least 4 difficult games.

This world cup will be the most competitive ever- unless a team just gets a completely lucky draw.

However, even that is less likely, with at least 6 teams that could win the tournament- so there is probably going to be no easy draw.

The teams could probably be ranked in a similar way to the world rankings, which seem pretty accurate at the moment for a tournament in the Northern Hemisphere. 

However, the mud pit that is the UK in the winter time, favours the Northern Hemisphere who have a pack more able to play on the ground. 

The silver lining is that the Southern Hemisphere should benefit more from the fast tempo Japan rugby fields, and this may even reduce the need for a specialist fetcher, but would require more pace in the back row

1. All Blacks

2. Ireland

3. Wales

4. England/Boks

5. Scotland

6. Australia

7. France

8. Argentina

x2 Problem Areas for the Boks:

A) - Centre combination, in particular, the position of inside centre.

B) - Loose forward combination, lack of a fetcher and outright pace.

Centre Combination

The brainless Delande antics have been well documented on this forum and beyond. He has some flashes in the pan when a light bulb seems to click, but these are fleeting moments that are dimmed by his option taking. 

Delande's instincts are to always take the wrong option. If crash-ball was the only requirement and therefore he does not have to think, he would be worth considering. 

Esterhuizen 

Another crash ball zombie. If the brains of Delande and Esterhuizen could be merged, it may be enough to produce a thinking player.

Pollard

Jantjies has looked good off the bench except do not let him near a high ball. Switching Pollard to 12, with Jantjies at 10 could suit the Japan conditions. 

Damien Willemse

No experience at inside center, and not enough international experience. It looks like he is going to play a bit part in the tournament. 

At this stage, Pollard and Jantjies seem like the best option- but this provides no injury cover.  

Hopefully, a new young player is identified in 2019- but it is probably too late. 

BackRow Combination

No specialist fetcher, and no pace. 

As stated above, the fast tempo fields of Japan may negate the need for a specialist fetcher, but it will require pace to get to the breakdown. However, the Northern Hemishpere refs may slow down the tempo regardless, and allow enter the ruck from any side. 

Francious Slouw was looking like a spent force for the first half of the season, but improved as things progressed. In the slower Northern Hemisphere conditions, he seemed more comfortable. However, he may be past it as this stage for Japan. He seemed off the pace on the Highveld where his geriatric jogging motion was well off the requirements.

Kolisi may be a good best for Japanese conditions- as more of a hybrid loosie that can link with the backs. He has his best games on hard fast pitches, so he may be a good option. He is a fit player, rather than a basher.

Steph Dutoit

Is he fast enough for Japan where loosies can sometimes play as locks, not the other way around?

Thormuelen.

After a fantastic start to the year, Vermeulen packed his stuff and headed to Japan. Perhaps the experience will do him well as he will know what it is like playing in Japan. 

He was without his hammer on the end of the year tour, so is he past his best? Is he fast enough to get to the breakdown? His once vaunted breakdown skills will be tested.

The Donkey Twins (aka the Diesel twins). 

Currently, on loan to the northern hemisphere, both lack the basic skills required for a loosie at test level. These locks are not what is required in Japan as a loosie.

Coetzee

Injury prone, but his high work rate and all-around play could be a good option- starting or off the bench. 

It seems that whatever option is chosen, the Boks may have the wrong combination for pace or/and breakdown skills.

A player like Steph Dutoit may just too slow to play in Japan, as are most other options.

If the breakdown does turn into a slugfest with Northern Hemisphere referees, the Boks may not have the breakdown skills- if Marx is not in top form.

SB

You just about makes me a less Merry Christmas - so lets have a look at what you wrote above and also as your options,   First of all the deficiencies have been identified and discussed endlessly om site - but the solutions are not easy.

Center situation

The idea to move Pollard to center is one aspect that should never be considered and is the worst option to even be mentioned.   

Pollard  was considered at 12 a number of times over the years and has failed every time:-

*    He was used at 12 in the 2013 JWC and failed badly in that position.

*    He was similarly u the Varsity Cup in 2013 and 2014  played in the 12 position and was not a success,

*    Since then he has been used in that position as a bench option  a few times this year and the move by Erasmus was not really successful.

There are three major problems about moving him to center,   Those are the following:-

*    If we had any viable alternative options at flyhalf - where Pollard is the  best flyhalf in SA - is perhaps could in theory work out, but to move him from a vital flyhalf position will never work out and is in fact is a joke in bad taste.   The mere idea that Jantjies will succeed in that position is a joke in bad taste.   He has been poor in all games he played on test level at flyhalf and the question is why even think of playing him at flyhalf.   In the first instance  Jantjies is poor under high balls and his defense  is a joke - opposition players attacking in the channel just run over Jantjies.    Aside from that Jantjies has a serious negative in any format of attack - h does not really attack the defense himself, but run a few steps towards the inside center before passing the balls to that player.   When he does the chances of losing ball possession is very real. 

*     If Pollard has a problem it is in defense.   In the flyhalf position it is a minor issue since the problem is reduced because there are players that protect him, from incessant attacks - at center playing outside another defense liability like Jantjies is unthinkable.

*     Pollard is not a player that can physically attack the gain line successfully and break through defenders.   He has a good step - but at center more is required and him breaking tackles just does not  happen.  

 Pollard should under no circumstances  ever be moved to center - it will destroy the chances for them to win crucial matches - end of story.    I would rather retain De Allende at center than suggest that impossibility as an option. 

So  what other options are available?   I am afraid there is nothing really much around.   Willemse was outstanding as inside center when he played in the 2017 Under 20 RWC - since then he  has virtually never been used  in that position.   The idea  to use him in that position has been raised with the Stormers and has been rejected  totally by Fleck and he will therefore gain no experience at 12.    To my mind he should be considered - he is much more physical than Pollard and  his defense is also better.  

Is there a real alternative  at present - I am afraid not and we can really only hope that something positive comes up in the upcoming season  of Super Rugby,  Personally I would rather suggest Jan Serfontein as an option - but he is also a player with some physicality problems and is not really effective against bigger opposition players,

We all agree there s a center problem - but at present all suggestions have produced no alternative that can be regarded as reasonable alternatives at all,

Loosie situation  

You miss the plot totally here.   Du Toit has the pace to be successful as a 7 and he has ball  sense .   Besides that he is the one loosie used by Erasmus that really was successful on a constant basis.

Kolisi can never be regarded as a test level loosie - but he remains  a political essential and  will be the captain on paper.   So there is no chance that he will not play, but is seems  it is a real situation that he will always be in the number 6 position,   However, he was subbed on a number of occasions in tests and the question really is  which back-up loosie should be in the side.   

I am disappointed in Louw and Vermeulen - both are no real options and it is unlikely that neither of the two would be in the WC squad,   As  a back-up loosie Coetzee is an option ahead of Louw.   As to the number 8 position the answer is  not clear at all.   As it i s the Du Preez twins are better options than Vermeulen as well - even though their ball skills are really deficient and they lack the pace and ball sense one would like to see,  Personally I would rather see  Coetzee as an 8 than Vermeulen. 

The Lock Situation

The one issue you have not dealt with is the lock selection.   Watching the repeats of the tests it becomes obvious that Mostert is the weakness at lock which cannot be retained,   He has a long list of negatives that weaken the Springbok Tight 5 and I think that the selection in that case is easy - either De Jager or Schickerling would be an improvement. 

I would not be surprised if De Jager is played at 5 and Schickerling being on the bench in the WC,        

.                                 

Steph Dutoit is reasonably fast, but perhaps not fast enough as a loosie for conditions in Japan. Apparently, the Japanese game is less physical and more about fitness and skill, so often loose forwards end up playing lock here. Lots of players end of losing weight in Japan, as it is more about cardio fitness than gym power. 

A player like Mostert at 5 could be a good option as a lock in this style of conditions- which will probably be more like Super rugby than standard test matches. 

Vermeulen will at least now have experience of the conditions- and for that matter, many of the SA players have played in Japan so they will know the conditions better than the other teams.

It just depends how much of an influence the Northern Hemisphere refs have on the game, and if they allow people to enter the ruck from any position.

The Jantjies/Pollard combination has actually more options on attack in the second half. The game against France was an example where Jantjies looked good. and he combined with removing the cart horse Delande gave the Boks more options on attack. Tactical kicking improved, as well as option taking when to go wide. 

Janjies has been in the past 3 SuperRugby finals in a row. There is no doubt he is good at a fast tempo game. He is able to get his backline running, unlike many flyhalf's in SA. He is a bit like a Carlos Spencer type of player that excels when given time and space. 

He has his weaknesses like catching the high ball and playing in wet slow conditions- but this should be less of an issue in Japan.

Willemse did not impress of the bench at flyhalf, and so far has done better at 15. Not sure he is big enough to play at inside-centre in the open division. 

If you say it is a faster game in Japan - then you must really think about Vermeulen again.  He will be one of the slowest forward on the field and that includes the props. 

Against the weaker teams the situation may be as you describe - against the stronger teams there will be a hell of a lot more physicality required up front,   The fields may be more in line with hat is encountered  in SA pace-wise in most cases, but that would not men that you can have a weakened Tight 5 on the field.  

Through the Sunwolves being in the Super Rugby series a lot of players from SA have played matches there and they would even have more matches under their belt in Japan than Vermeulen had.  A large number of players went to Japan in the period December to early February to play rugby in Japan so why should the conditions be foreign to them.    Fact I I looked at the teams from Japan playing and Vermeulen was never in the team - he was according to newspaper reports injured during most of the season he was in Japan apparently not playing - so the "experience"  he gained there would be minimal to say the least.

Vermeulen will have to play in the Super Rugby season and we will then see whether is still in contention.   I personally think Thor has lost his hammer and that he is now playing on reputation and not on form that should be the norm for selection.

Incidentally - your story about Jantjies in the French test is not supported by fact.   He played for only 16 minutes and for 80% of those the Springboks were defending.   He handled the ball 5 times in that period and kicked it once - pass it 3 times and carried it once for a 1 meter territory gain.   I frankly cannot see how those three passes could have been enough to credit Pollard and Jantjies with the improvement you described in your statement above.

Be it as it may I rate Willemse higher than Jantjies who loss the plot in games.

However, since Pollard is not likely to be moved from flyhalf  I doubt whether he would start at 12 .               

   ,        

I forgot about Serfontein. I believe he is the best we have. While not the biggest, I think his defence is much better than Delande and Carthuizen.

His playmaking ability is limited but better than the other options. 

Serfontein also has experience combining with Pollard and Jessica Kriel. (Although ideally a better option than Jessica Kriel is found). I am not sure Lukumo AM is the answer either, as he butchers basic draw pass movements.

SB

Am is a tackle-miss disaster and I do not think he is the answer either.    I am hoping that some clarification will come out of the Super Rugby series - but wish that Erasmus considers two of the Blitzbokke as options as well - namely Impi Visser and Muller Du Plessis as well,  

The other option could also be DH van der Merwe  of  Edinburgh,   He has massive pace and strength and is a real matchwinner for his club.     

SB

Am is a tackle-miss disaster and I do not think he is the answer either.    I am hoping that some clarification will come out of the Super Rugby series - but wish that Erasmus considers two of the Blitzbokke as options as well - namely Impi Visser and Muller Du Plessis as well,  

The other option could also be DH van der Merwe  of  Edinburgh,   He has massive pace and strength and is a real matchwinner for his club.     

There is a lot more issues with the Goats than the midfield and backrow.

The team is by far not our best ... riddled with undeserving gravytrainers ... a poor openside flank and an incompetent captain who needs his hand held all the time ... the potential of selecting our best 10 in years at 12 ... a very poor bench ... a brainfarting maniac a 15 ... a quota as an assistant coach ... and the inability to ply according to to any kind of game plan for more thn 10 minutes.

Forget about challenging for the world cup ... it's not realistic.

Ireland and the All Blacks are the only contenders for the title.

CC

Have a very good 2019 - you seem to be in a bad mood at present.  I would not call Le Roux a brain fart.     

CC

Have a very good 2019 - you seem to be in a bad mood at present.  I would not call Le Roux a brain fart.     

Thanks, Mike ... to you too ... hope it's a cracker.

"Brainfart" may be a little harsh ... but we both know he's prone to some really stupid stuff.

In truth ... there isn't anything special about him ... he's no Andre Joubert or Johann Heunis.

He's just there to make up the numbers as we have nothing better at the moment.

Bad mood ... me? ... Never!! I'm on leave and that to me is always a good start to the day. 

CC

My present team would look as follows:-

15  Le Roux, 14 Nkosi, 13  Kriel, 12 Willemse, 11 Dyantyi, 10  Pollard, 9  De Klerk, 8 Du Plessis, 7  Du Toit, 6 Kolisi (not mine but inevitable), 5  De Jager, 4  Etzebeth, 3 Malherbe, 2  Marx, 1 Kitshoff

16  Mbonambi, 17  Mtawarira, 18  Koch, 19  Schicekerling, 20 Kriel, 21  Papier, 22  Visser, 23 Du Plessis.

The latter two are in the sevens set-up at present and I can see real stars in the making.in those two.  Muller du Plessis can cover both the full back and wing positions and Visser both center positions.   Any player who can score three tries against the Fijians beating three  of their defenders (like Du Plessis did) is really something special.   .

 The above would not meet the quota requirements - but a WC squad consists of  32 players - so Erasmus will select most of those from the quota system and will probably include at least Nyakane, Ngcobo, Jantjies, Am and a few other quota players to make up the numbers,  Any other suggestions you could come up with?