There is not much to write about before the November tests - so let look at the age statistics of the two starting teams look like:-
Total Age of two teams players - in years only
All Blacks = 417
Springboks = 393
Average Age
All Blacks = 27,8
Springboks = 26,2
Age Distribution
All Blacks = 30+ = 5
25 - 29 = 6
24- = 4
Springboks = 30+ = 1
25 - 29 = 9
24- = 5
Youngest Player
All Blacks = Rieko Ioane
Springboks = Lionel Marx
If there are no team changes the following deductions are logical:-
Average Age of Players at 2019 WC
All Blacks = 28,8 years
Springboks = 27,2 years
The average age of both teams will be substantially lower than it was in the 2015 WC – indicating a very substantial change since then. This change was far more noticeable in the Springbok team – for example the average age of the Springboks in the Japan test in 2015 was 29,7 years – as against the likely 27,2 years in 2019.
There will in the next WC be the following number of players at age of 30 or older in the two teams:-
All Blacks = 6 players
Springboks = 2 players
Potential Player changes
All Blacks
The only All Blacks player unlikely to make the 2019 WC is S-B Williams – all the other thirty plus players will probably be in the All Black squad. Williams have had serious injury problems for a while now and when he played the old magic was largely gone
Springboks
I cannot see how Francois Louw can survive to the 2019 WC as a loosie, He will then be 34 years of age and his performance was much poorer this year compared to 2015. Another year will only mean a further decline.
His potential replacement could be Vermeulen – a player of a similar age. Vermeulen over the last 3 years had serious injury problems and it is unlikely that he will make through Super Rugby next year without another injury problem. Fact is I think the chance of Vermeulen getting through to the WC is about 40% or less.
Any potential replacement of Louw and Vermeulen will be much younger and may just pull down the average age of the Springboks to below 27 in the WC next year.
The Center Situation
I have already commented on the S-B Williams situation – but another problem case can be found in the case of Ryan Crotty. He is already 30 years old – but has unfortunately a rather serious injury history relating to concussion. Will he take the punishment further during the year leading up to the next WC?
New Zealand has good potential replacements for the two centers mentioned. One would think that players like Luamape and Goodhue will ensure improvement in center performance and I think that Goodhue will in future be the best center in world rugby.
In the case of South Africa the two centers are very, very average in performance and there is no sign of any upcoming centers being an improvement on the present 2. Hope something comes up – but I have doubts about that happening. Esterhuizen and Am was tried out this year –but both were performance-wise worse than the present two 2 that played the All Blacks.
Conclusion
The above opens up the possibility for further objective assessment of what could happen between now and 2019 insofar as the two teams are concerned, Please – we need objectivity and not other issues here.
The average age of the world cup team of 2015 wasn't that far off these numbers. When one omitted Victor the average age was just over 27 .
André: Was very physical both on defence and attack. He hits the line very hard as a carrier and is reliable enough to bring down anyone from 1 to 15 on his own without losing so much as a millimetre. There were crashballs that he stopped dead in their tracks. He routinely harassed and pressured attackers well behind the gainline. A very useful weapon. Nice distribution, he doesn't fold under pressure either. When play breaks down he relieves pressure. Has shown an ability to kick at times.
Damian: The same problems persist, defence and an inability to assert himself in any assured way. He can't read play very well. Considering how inexperienced André is, this should be very alarming. He needs space to thrive and will naturally begin to play literally in finding it. It's difficult to play off of him. Ball presentation at the breakdown and ball security have been other issues. He is clearly a 13, not a 12.
Am: Very solid on defence. A better all round 13 than Kriel. Another which has often relieved pressure rather than creating it. Reads play well and is positionally sound. The best new prospect at 13 for quite some time, many years. He was sorely missed.
Kriel: A very erratic set of performances. He was excellent against New Zealand at Loftus, but poor in Wellington. He was nowhere in Brisbane as well. He is faster than Am, more lively on attack, but poor on defence and when sent as a chaser. The aspect of his game which stood out to me at Loftus was his work in tandem with players around him. He looked mkre connected with the team than ever before. If he is preferred over Am, this should be why. Though Am showed signs of this too. Kriel and Am are closer than the 12s.
I dot know ow you can work out average age as you did. If you take out Matfield and replace him with a younger player, the difference would be less half a year or even less lower than the present calculation.
Mozart worked out the average age of the players in the 2015 WC squad as 29,6 and the players in the Japan test as 29,7. There is no way that 1 player could have a major impact on the end result of the calculation.
However, the average age never was as low as you claim to be.
As stated your preferences at center are well-known - but it is doubtful that Erasmus will agree with you. So you are at liberty to have your own preferences though.
For the rest is my outlines given above as a reasonable conclusion.
