POOL A
Australia
England
Wales
Oceania 1
Play-off winner
South Africa
Scotland
Samoa
Asia 1
Americas 2
New Zealand
Argentina
Tonga
Europe 1
Africa 1
France
Ireland
Italy
Americas 1
Europe 2
Amazingly, this will be the 4th straight RWC where the Springboks and Samoa are drawn in the same pool.
1999 remains the only RWC the Springboks have played in where where the Springboks didn't play against Samoa (or Western Samoa as they were in 1995).
The odds on this happening must be very large. Samoans always consider their WC role to be to injure as many Boks as possible. I smell and nz hand in this.
Er......the 4th straight RWC, if your statement that the Boks didn't play Samoa in 99 is correct:
2003 is one
2007 is two
2011 is three
2015 is four.
There that wasn't so hard, I'm sure you are up to it. The more interesting question is, what are the odds of playing the same team in 4 RWC pools.
Well Samoa is a third seed team in the pools and of course there are 4 third seed teams, one in each pool. The Boks are always a first seed or perhaps in 2003 a second seed team.
So the odds that Samoa is your third seed team is one in four. The odds that they are your third seed team four times in a row are 1/4 to the power 4. .....or 1 in 256.
But of course there are 4 third seed teams.....and you could as easily have drawn Wales or some other team four times in a row. So the odds of drawing any third seed team three times in a row are four times better. So the odds drop to one in 64 that you would play the same third seed team three times in a row.....although in fact the odds are lower than this because the third seed teams are not always the same.
Second seed team are pretty consistent though, and there the odds of 1 in 64 are pretty good.
But of course your 4 time opponent could come out of any of the three other seed levels. So the odds of playing the same opponent are considerably better than playing the same seed four times in a row...... approximately 1 in 20 times.
So it's not so amazing really....especially if you then consider that there are four first seeds. If you take that into account its one in five chance that some first seed team will play an opponent four times in a row.
We have come a long way from your "5th straight time" RooiAAS. Next time you deride statistics, just think how simple your world is, precisely because statistics have removed all sorts of complexities. Allowing you to remain the uneducated moron you are, in some safety!
well Moz you are the mathematician but somehow I would have thought it a lot higher than 1 in 20
Depends on how you define the problem. When I was an undergraduate, two cars in CT with successive license plate numbers crashed. The Argus had a front page picture, saying something like ..."one in a million". I wrote a letter to the editor giving much higher odds of those two cars crashing. In those more intellectual days it was published as a nice brain teaser.
Some other writer disagreed and rightly pointed out that the more interesting number was the odds of any two consecutive numbered cars crashing. Somebody else objected that you had to have the sequence right....leading to a long debate until the editor finally said he was accepting no more letters on the subject.
Nobody was right, nobody was wrong....you had to define the problem you wished to solve.
But counting to four and getting five....bwaaaaaahahahahahaha....that's in a league of it's own!!!!!
Maybe ou rooitwit was counting on his fingers. He forgot he had lost one so when he reached his thumb he thought it was 5?
I am confident that rooitwit, if he applies himself, can count to 5 Moz.
I must say, even though I think RooiAAS is "too much stoopid" to quote the jive lingo he has discovered as an old toppie........I still thought he could count to four. Seems I'm wrong!
It seems we are certain Pool winners....with a match against the Poms or Wales in the quarters. Likely playing Oz in the semis. And no NZ until the finals. It's an easy pool set up , but the three likely knockout matches are tough.
Pool A is a tough one with 3 possibilities and no forgone conclusion...England much improved and Wales very hungry and tasted disappointment in 2011 and Australia always being there will indeed be tough...there has to be a loser amongst these big 3.
In the other pools I cannot visualise the same thing happening...Samoa are going to try and be spoilers and try and disable us, so will Scotland but they are very unlikely to beat us on the world stage.
The AB's will get through this one with relative ease although the Argies might be a different team in 2 years time but that's very unlikely. The Four Nations will improve them I have no doubt but it takes many years to be on par with the AB's.
The last pool could spring a surprise with an improving Italy...afterall they have tasted 2 victories against the Les Bleus...freak as it might be but WC's are strange animals...ie Tonga beating France and then the almost unthinkable France falling short by only 1 point in questionable refereeing which so easerly could have been changed by one penalty or a drop goal...I still wonder about this one...often think if Lievremont had not been anti-Michalak and he played instead of Trihn Duc, Yachvili or Parra...could France's biggest rugby dream been fulfilled...indeed any nations dream to beat the AB's at home. Many have called it a conspiracy...with Bryce Lawrence and Craig Joubert under question we will never really know but refereeing has been called to question, most certainly on BL who after being given the referee award gets put out to graze to save future embarrassment.
Minnows in world cup
Oceana 1...must be Fiji...playoff no idea, Asia 1 must be Japan, Americas 2 ...second place out of Canada USA or Uruguay?,Europe 1...1st place out of either Georgia,Romania,Portugal or Russia,Africa 1...Namibia or Zimbabwe, Americas 1..1st place out of.Canada,USA or Uruguay,Europe 2,,,2nd place out of Georgia,Romania,Portugal or Russia.
Hardly likely to make any inroads sadly...Japan, Canada or Georgia might well surprise a major player (Georgia Ireland 2007 came close) but unlikely to progress to quarters.
It will take nations like this a long time to develope so as to take on tier 1 nations because mainly lack of sponsorship funds and popularity in nation (USA and Japan...although club rugby is fairly big in the latter).
Of course it is up north Chabal, so the POms and Wales do have a good chance of winning that pool. Which might leave us, as last time, with Oz in the quarters. Because of 4N familiarity, that's a harder one!
Americas 1 and 2 will be Canada and USA. Uruguay will probably win the Consur A pool against Brazil and Chile. But unless a miracle happens, they have no chance against Canada or USA. They will be in the repechage.
Indeed Mozart being Europe could well lean in Eng and Wales favour...imagine quarters without Australia...not saying it will happen but certainly a possibility.
Canada rugby...in minnows, the repechage then are the playoffs in pool A...ie the winner of what's left...this could be the 3rd in ENC 1 (likely to be Portugal Spain or Russia...Georgia or Romania will be in either 1st or 2nd from what I've read so far) or Uruguay or Asia (UAR or Hong Kong)??? of course there's more possibilities but these are the most likely ones...the other one in Africa 1, I'm told could be Madagascar,Morocco or even Kenya,Uganda???
In that case a new kid on the block...doesn't evoke much interest to the major nation fans but is nevertheless interesting to those who love the game for itself and not necessary as a means of proving misrepresented superiority.
