Springboks have forwards to beat All Blacks, claims top South African critic, published in Rugby Stuff

The Springboks have the superior forwards and will beat the All Blacks in Pretoria to win the Rugby Championship.

The tournament is only one round old but that's the bold claim coming out of South Africa on the back of the teams' respective opening wins.

The All Blacks and Springboks rallied for big wins over the Wallabies and Pumas last weekend, sufficient evidence for leading South African rugby writer Mark Keohane to reinforce his assertions made in June that the world champion New Zealanders would be taken down this year.

"I can see the championship being decided in the final round at Loftus when the All Blacks visit South Africa," the always opinionated Keohane wrote for Sport24.

"And I can see the Springboks winning. I think they'll run the All Blacks close in Wellington but I don't know if the belief is quite there yet to win. The nature of that battle will instill in the Springboks the necessary to finally get a win against the old enemy.

"There's the small hurdle of Australia in Australia, but the Springboks in Durban (against Argentina) did enough to keep the faith and reinforce the belief that we will finally see reward when the All Blacks come to town."

Keohane believes the difference will come with the Springboks' physicality up front and he claims they have more depth there as new coach Rassie Erasmus builds his influence.

Kieran Read's All Blacks beat the Springboks in a 25-24 thriller in Cape Town last year.

Keohane acknowledged the impressive return of Brodie Retallick and Kieran Read but felt Steve Hansen's team were vulnerable in  in the locking  and loose forwards departments without them.

"If either is not available the All Blacks pack loses 50 percent of its grunt, mongrel and presence. Those who back up Retallick and especially Read are simply not in the class of the two All Blacks," he wrote.

"The Springboks are building a pack of forwards that can negate New Zealand's strength up front. The Springboks have greater depth in numbers one to eight than the New Zealanders.

"And what the South African series against England showed was that the Springboks can select two very different pack of forwards and still be equally effective.

"Eben Etzebeth and Malcolm Marx, like Retallick and Read, are players without equal in the Springboks tight five. But those who back them up are very good players, who I'd select ahead of the reserves strength in the All Blacks squad."

He felt recent history had shown New Zealand to be vulnerable when they were taken on up front.

"Teams that pressure the All Blacks through their forwards and also stifle the quickness of their recycled ball, have managed to beat them. It sounds easy but it isn't as easy to find a team with the pack capable of doing this to the All Blacks; equally the quality loose-forwards who specialise playing to the ball. The British and Irish Lions were an exception and so too the Springboks who lost by a point at Newlands in 2017," Keohane wrote on Sport24.

"Australia, in beating the All Blacks in Brisbane last year, also showed that if the physicality and intensity can be sustained for 80 minutes, a victory is indeed a possibility."

He believed the current South African squad had the presence and potential to roll back the clock for rugby's greatest rivalry.

"Few teams in the last decade have managed to consistently put the heat on the All Blacks pack. The Springboks of 2009 did it and won three successive tests against the All Blacks. The Springboks couldn't sustain the dominance and a year later the All Blacks restored order with a three-nil test return.

"Rassie Erasmus's pack of 2018 is starting to mirror the presence of the magnificent 2009 Springboks - a team All Blacks legend Richie McCaw rated the best team he had faced in his 149-test career."

Keohane was gracious enough to return to his June predictions where he tipped Australia to win the Bledisloe Cup opener in their own back yard.

"I expected more of Australia and felt they could win in Sydney. I got that one wrong with a capital W."

He tipped the All Blacks to secure another bonus-point victory in Auckland this weekend and expected the Springboks to win a tough rematch with Argentina in Mendoza. The pressure would be on the Boks to try to secure another bonus point themselves to stay in touch with New Zealand on the points table and work towards his predicted Pretoria showdown which comes in the final round on October 7.

Stuff

JW 

The short answer is - NO.   Depending on selection the Tight 5 could dominate - but the SA loosies are subpar - so that argument is futile ,  

The Boks have greater physicality. That is very true. The All Blacks made many handling errors when pressured by the Aussies. The advantage the All Blacks do have is in Cane and Read. They read play very well on defence and attack the ball aggressively. To assert that the Boks have nothing is ridiculous. They were by far the most physical team on the weekend. 

When Australia were applying some pressure the All Black defence had problems. Straight runs cut in to their defence. However, I can guarantee that they won't be defending the same. The plan was obviously to push inside out to touch with a less guarded seam by the rucks. You can't do that against the Boks. The problem for South Africa is, as I said, K7 and K8 (I always designate K for Kiwi in my notes). They are very good at reading play, and identifying runners ahead of time. The Boks aren't sophisticated enough to really test their ability to read play, which reduces ball retention to a fistfight. Which is in the favour, given the personnel the Boks have chosen. The Bok midfield is big and physical. The wings are physical. The most rounded Bok team for some time.

I anticipate the All Blacks will win, but the Boks have more tools. Faf is going to be a pain in t he back side, the way Januarie used to irritate the All Blacks.