Stormers st SA's best bet

JON CARDINELLI of Keo says the Stormers remain on course for a home semi-final, a fact that makes them the best-placed South African franchise.

As I wrote two weeks ago, three South African franchises should qualify for the 2012 play-offs (As the premier rugby playing nation in the tri nations this should be expected). The Stormers have already booked their place in the next phase by securing the SA conference title, while the Bulls and Sharks should advance on the back of big home victories in the final round of the league.

I expect the Bulls to collect five log points from their coming fixture against the Lions, but even that may not be enough to secure home advantage in the qualifying play-off. They missed an opportunity in Durban last week in that another four points would have furthered their cause for a top-four finish. As it stands, they’re unlikely to surpass the Crusaders, and so a journey to Christchurch is now looking highly likely. (Will the bulle front up or jus ttrhow in the towell once more when down under)

The Crusaders will host the Western Force in their final league match, and based on current form the Cantabrians must be favourites to win comfortably. Even if they accumulate four log points instead of five and the Bulls bank a full house at Loftus, the Crusaders will still finish ahead of Bulls on the log. The Bulls will be hoping the Force can do them a favour and score an upset like the Rebels did earlier in the season, but aberrations like that are surely a once in a season occurence.

Like the Stormers and Sharks, the Bulls will know what they need to do to advance before they even take the field on Saturday. The matches involving the three South African contenders are the final three of the league. No doubt the coaches of these teams will be watching the overseas fixtures on Friday and Saturday morning with keen interest.

The Stormers will be supporting the Hurricanes when they host the Chiefs (naturally as we want to top the log and the chiefies are unworthy of tha thonour due to their being a non warrior tribe as sitting bool well knows!!). A win for the Hurricanes will mean that the Stormers merely need to beat the Rebels to secure top spot on the log. The upshot of this outcome is that the Stormers will host a semi-final and a possible final.(Very nice outcome!!)

If the Hurricanes can’t win that match, the Stormers will at least hope that their defence limits the Chiefs to three tries or less. A Chiefs win without the bonus point will mean that the Stormers still have a chance of finishing top of the log, providing of course they score four or more tries in a win against the Rebels at Newlands.

The Bulls and Sharks, however, will be hoping that the Chiefs beat the Hurricanes and end the latter team’s play-off ambitions (These lessor light do have their dreams too I guess). They will also hope that the Waratahs beat the Reds or at least stop Ewen McKenzie’s men from claiming five log points from that encounter.

There is a chance that the Hurricanes and Reds will score bonus-point victories in their respective matches, and that would take both teams up to 58 log points. However if that were to happen, the Bulls and Sharks would still be in a good position, given that they both boast superior points differentials to that of the Hurricanes and Reds. They would, of course, still need to win their matches against the Lions and Cheetahs respectively.

It seems more likely that the Chiefs will win in Wellington, although it could be closer than most expect. What this result could do is give the Stormers a chance of claiming top spot. It is something they need to shoot for, and there isn’t a tremendous amount of risk involved.

The Brumbies are likely to beat the Blues in Canberra, and five log points would see them moving one point ahead of the Stormers. That result would see the Stormers needing at least one log point from the Rebels fixture to finish second, as they have won more matches than the Brumbies.

If the Brumbies don’t get the bonus point, then the Stormers will be free to pursue a five-point haul knowing there will be no consequences should they lose. There will however, be everything to gain in the shape of a potential home final.

As I have repatedly said we need our big guns back - Etzebeth, Schalk, Vermuelen and Koster. Then we have  a chance. A five pointer against the rebels is a must have.

Go Hurricanes and of course Go Mighty Stormers!!

A chance of a 5 pointer.....BWahahahahahaha!!! Pull the other one. The Stormers are looking more and more pedestrian as the season goes forward. The boring ten man rugby of the Bulls in years gone by, looks like sevens rugby compared with the play of the Stormers at the moment. Sharks are the best SA side at present. I don't even want to discuss the Bulls because they are as inconsistant as France this year. My prediction is the Stormers will make the final, again, but they'll have their bums handed to them by the Chiefs at home.

Bluebok, we have been saving our efforts till when it is really needed - hahahahahaha

But please do factor in the point that Frans is NOT going to be playing in playoffs (if sharkies make the playoffs)

No the best bet, provided we are at full strength is the Mighty Stormers.   Hopefully we will be back to our sparkling best soon. The Chiefs will probably not be in the final   -  even sitting bool realises that.  If the Chiefs have the misfortune to travel to Newlands for the final their fate is sealed! Bwahahahahaha.

Man I do hope Schalk and Vermulen get back soon!!!!!!  Cant wait to see our pack of 940 kg in action. Kitshoff, Liebeberg, Malherbe, Etzebeth, Bekker, Elstadt, Vermuelen and Schalk.  Reserves Harris, Fourie Quinn and Koster. Ouch!!!!  Some eyes will be opened wide. It will be a turning point is rugby in SA. 

Can you imagine what the rolling maul will do to the opposition? The non warrior tribe the chiefies will be munched and crunched. Their only hope is the non recovery of these MEN.

 Seriously What is the issue with this Bonus point thing, everybody seems to be so bent on trying to finnish top of the log. As long as you finnish one of the top 2 so you have a reast for one week you should be good. And stormers have proven this year they can win ugly and close games and create these games. They should be okay. Not the most bautifull rugby in the world but a win is a win. As I said last week, as long as they keep on winning in the next weeks they will be fine. no need to make a big show of it. And if they do get it right, good on them.

Ek, the point is this, if the Stormers don't top the overall log, which they proobably won't, they will most likely play the Chiefs in New Zealand for the final, assuming they both make it that far. Unfortunately, that basically means they will lose the final, because playing away from home is hard, and playing all the way over in New Zealand is even harder. The stats in Super Rugby finals VERY strongly favour the home team. That is the issue with the Bonus point thing. Still, I'll be shouting my lungs out for the Hurricanes to beat the Chiefs and for the Stormers to finally get a bonus point victory! 

playing away for a final for a SA team is the hardest. being the travel aspect the trip from the republic to NZ or AUS is by far the toughest to undertake and if memory serves me right the team that hosts the final has a far better winning % than the visiting team so that proves that not have a home game for the final is alreay a dauting challendge.

so i hope the canes can pull of a win and the stormers can win by 5. for SA sake

 I hear you bluebok, but if you dwell to much on that you lose focus, and the stormers have proven they can go over there and win.

Besides I don't neceserily think the the Chiefs will play in the final:

Lets take current standings:

Ciefs

Stormers 

Brumbies

Crusaders

Bulls 

Sharks.

And lets take it as that to be the order in which they finnish, Hypothtical off course. and current form:

Playoffs:

Crusaders v bulls in NZ - Crusaders to win

Sharks v Brumbies in Aus - Sharks to win

Semis: (anyone can win here)

Chiefs v Sharks 

Stormers v Crusaders

Then final permutations are:

Chiefs v Stormers in NZ

or

Stormers v Sharks at Newlands

or 

Chiefs v Crusaders in NZ

or

Chiefs v Sharks in NZ.

Way to many possibilities to really worry about if you will end up first or second on the log. From there my argument. Just play to win and win ugly. If they play the chiefs in the final it will be in NZ, if they play anyone else it will be at Newlands.

the brumbies game will be the easier of the knock out games but still no pushover game either. jakes team are not there just to make up the numbers. the brumbies have a great record against the sharks as well.

if the sharks take the brumbies my money will be on the sharks for the semis as well. they really play very well in NZ in general. it all just depends on what team pitches on the day for the sharks.

 Sorry adding to this, let's make a hypothetical situation where the stormers actually do score the bonus point and end up top of the log:

then playoffs would be still:

Crusaders v bulls in NZ - Crusaders to win

Sharks v Brumbies in Aus - Sharks to win

Semi's would now be, still:

Chiefs v sharks

Stiormers v Crusaders.

the only thing that a top of the log position will gain for the stormers is that in the event that the they play the chiefs in the final the final would be in Cape town. that is one thing in loads of differnet permutations. It also has the nice little Banana peel that you might lose focus changing your style now at this stage of the tournament. Keep it simple Stormers and just continue to win. You still need to beat a few teams before you can even think of the final.

hahaha imagine a stormers crusaders semi....

cant imagine how the stadium wil look with all those racist cape town coloureds coming out in full force to support any NZ team that comes to cape town. its will be a home game for the saders pretty much. last year the stadium itself booed the stormers on there own ground. cant even imagine how a semi would go down

So Carpet you in reference to that then agree that they shouldn't worry about home ground advantage against a KIWI side as they won't have it even if they play at home:) so why worry then about the bonus point.....

hahahahaha yes EK i was at newlands myself last year. never ever have i seen such a warm embrace for any other team. dont think even the stormers had such a nice round of cheers around the ground the whole year.

as a south african i was very much shocked to watch and hear this kind of support. you parking lot was full of old bashed up corsa's and all black flags. so much so that i felt like i was in another country.i cant explain it really. i dont know if they have some sense of false entitlement towards the maori of NZ or they are just completely disillusioned. as n afrikaans capetonian myself i cant really understand it nor explain it.