RYAN VREDE of keo with the assistance of ruckingoodstats.com studies the statistical trends that will shape the massive Bulls-Stormers derby at Loftus on Saturday.
The Bulls are under no illusions about the importance of victory in the context of their conference challenge, while the Stormers are equally aware that back-to-back defeats could derail their ambitions of a home play-off. Both will also be keeping an eye on the resurgent Sharks, who will close the gap on the losers with victory over the Lions this weekend.
There is no question that the Bulls are the superior attacking unit. They’ve outscored the Stormers by 38 tries to 21, which, together with losing bonus points, accounts for the for their log position despite them having lost four matches to the Stormers’ two. Their success has been based on the clinical edge they have exhibited once in the opposition’s 22m. They are ranked second in the competition for time spent in that zone and have clearly converted opportunities into points better than the Cape side. Their attacking tempo has also been notable, with the slowest build-up in the tournament.
However, in the Stormers’ defence the Bulls will encounter a formidable force which will be amplified by the return of combative and physical flank Siya Kolisi. The Stormers concede 16.3 points a game (lowest in the competition), 1.6 tries a game (lowest), miss on average one in every 9.9 tackle attempts (best in competition) and teams are making just 1.4 clean linebreaks a game (second lowest in the competition) against them. The Bulls have been good on attack, but will have to lift their standard considerably to consistently trouble their great rivals.
As one means of achieving that they will look to pin the Stormers in their territory through tactical kicks. They kick every 36 seconds and will hope the Stormers, who put boot to ball every 34 seconds (two shortest periods for this action in competition) return the kick inaccurately, which would set up broken field situations, or look to run from deep within their territory, in which case the Bulls will back their defence to isolate runners and force penalties or turnovers.
With regards to the former, if it comes down to a straight shoot out between the goal-kickers – the performances of Peter Grant, who is kicking at 90%, some of those match-winning efforts, and Morné Steyn, who is uncharacteristically low at 75% but is renowned for his accuracy in the biggest matches, will be key to the result. Grant more so, given the Stormers’ attacking struggles with ball in hand.
If the Stormers get territorial dominance they will profit from the Bulls’ chronic ill-discipline. No side in the competition has conceded more penalties than the Bulls (11 per match and many while in possession), with 17% of their scrums resulting in a penalty or free kick. The Stormers will target them here, but the Bulls will do so at the lineouts, where they have stolen 24.3% of opposition’s feeds. Stormers lock Andries Bekker was out-thought in this department against the Sharks (Really!) and he will have to prove that he has the capacity to command the lineouts when the heat is cranked up.
