Stuff Power Rankings give NZ a 45% Chance of winning the RWC

The Power Rankings forecast the All Blacks as 62 per cent favourites to win their semifinal and advance to the final ahead of England (38 per cent). Whichever of these teams wins that first semifinal is likely to enter the final as favourites.

On the other side of the draw, the model slightly favours Wales to beat South Africa. It gives Wales a 19 per cent chance to lift the trophy.

South Africa are the least favoured team at nine per cent and the lowest rated of the four semi-finalists according to our model.

Although they have played well in 2019, the Springboks were relatively poor for a long periods after 2015 World Cup, driving down their rating. And while they have played better recently, they have had very few wins over teams rated above them, which is the best way for a team to increase their rating.

After beating the All Blacks in 2018, they went on to lose to England and Wales on their end-of-year tour.

In 2019, the only team above them they have actually played is the All Blacks, for one draw and one loss. So the Wales game should be a good gauge of where South Africa are really at. Another good win would boost their rating and their forecast chances of winning the World Cup

It appears this is a somewhat backwards looking assessment.

I would put the Bok chances as follows:

Vs Wales 65%....the Frogs were easily the better team.

Vs England in a final 40%

Vs NZ in a final  ....30%.....not that different because of recent history.

And the final piece of the puzzle is the ABs vs Poms...where NZ have a 70% chance.

So the Boks' calculus is:

0.65 x (0.7x0.3+0.3x0.4)=0.21.

So a reasonable series of probability assignments by game give us a 21% chance of winning the RWC....certainly higher than Stuff's 9%.

Over the last 18 months the Springboks beat England twice and they lost one game against them because of player experimenting and the other because of  rather minor problems corrected afterwards and a faulty decision  by the referee for which he afterwards apologized.

Against the AB's we have a record of 1 win, 1 loss and 1 draw before the WC.  Fact is the Springboks weakened the team and especially the Tight 5 against the AB's in the WC by playing Mostert at Lock and the latter's poor defense led to a try scored by the AB's.   Both the AB tries in that game followed on school yard handling error by the Springboks as well.   I would say the match-up in the final between the Springboks is likely to be 50:50.

The Springboks lost two games against Wales over the last 18 months and the one as in Washington where the team sent was an experimental team at best.   The second match in Wales was won by the Welsh and deservedly so.  However, I was seriously unimpressed by the performances in Japan against the Aussies and the French and I believe they are beatable on Sunday, when they will meet a team considerably stronger team than the one they met in November last year under playing conditions not favouring them.

Nice try - but the dominant opinion is that the final will be a match up between the Springboks and the AB's according to independent observers.                             

Shark I expect us to play all our remaining games, much as we played NZ.....a game we really tried to win. So the box kick will be a big part of the mix.