Super 15 log going into the last round robin game.

Although the Stormers were pathetic in both there last two games - I still give them a 50-50 chance to become overall log leader.   I cannot see them not beating the Rebels and I think the Hurricans could give the Chiefs a hard time.   The Hurricans can knock off the Chiefs by beating them - or p-recventing them from scoring four tries.   

The Stormers shall top the SA log - the Bulls can do nothing about it anymore.

So the combined log would next week probasbly look like the following:-

1 and 2 - The Chiefs or the Stormers - depending on the outcome of the game next week

3.   The Brumbies

4   The Crusaders

5   The Bulls

6.  The Sharks

As I understand it - the brumbies will be playing the Sharks in that case.   After yesterday and today - I would say the brumbies will have to play the Sharks and the Crusaders the Bulls - both being away games for the said two SA teams.

What do you think about that?

We need the Chiefs to beat the Canes and the Tahs to beat the Reds in order to keep the Sharks, Bulls and Stormers in the top 6 - of course the Sharks have to beat the Cheetahs for this to all happen

Saffex

I am sure despite their miserable display today - that the Stormers will beat the Rebels.   They may even get five points that would put them on top of the log.   However, even if they lose and get 1 bonus point - they would still be second on the log.   The only thing that can remove them from second is if the Brumbies win with fie points and the Stormers pick up no points whatsoever.   That is very, very unlikely.

I am pretty sure of the predictions for 1, 2 and 3.

I believe the Bulls will - despite their atrocious performance against the Sharks - get a five-pointer against the  more miserable Lions.     The Crusaders is likely to get a 5-pointer against the Force - so that should secure the Crusaders and Bulls in positions 4 and 5..   There are 3 teams competing for position number 6.   Those are the Sharks, Reds and the Hurricanes.    If the latter loses against the Chiefs - they would be out of contention.     That means two things - if the Reds get a 5 pointer - the Sharks will also have to get one.  The Sharks have to win - but also gets a bonus point to keep the Reds out of 6 - if the Reds manages a bonus point.   If the Sharks, Reds and Hurricanes all loses - the Sharks may still be at 6 if they manage to get a bonus point in the process - even if the other two mentioned teams also gets a bonus point in losing.   

All in all - the present one point advanatge of the Sharks will be very hard to overcome - and I still give the Sharks a better chance percentatge wise to be no 6.    That is what I took into account in my posting above.

If the other contenders(canes and reads) do not win and score a bonus point with 4 tries, then they are out.

Both the Bulls and the Sharks will know if they need to score 4 tries for the bonus point win before the games.

In this instance it may be better for either team to not score a bonus point with 4 tries.

The Sharks play before the Bulls, If only a win is required then the sharks could just kick more penalties instead of tries. 

Then finishing 6th is better than 5th because it means that they would play the Brumbies rather than the Crusaders. The Crusaders have allmost the first choice team playing and in the knock out stages in Christchuch not worth betting against.

The Sharks beat the Brumbies in Canberra earlier in the year, and the Bulls could also beat them away. However I think the Sharks would have a better chance in winning in Cambera.

One thing is Frans Steyn will not be available for the playoffs so not ideal

Sharkbok

I would not worry too much about Steyn's absence - on Friday he disappointed me and did not perform on the Super 15 level - maybe his wedding was the reason.  Be it as it may - he did not really have an outstanding game on Friday and he was one of the players I gave 6 out of 10.

If forced to do so - the Sharks would play the very average Whitehead at 12 and play Jordaan at 13.   Jordaan at 13 would be a vast improvement on Whitehead - so the game is still on.    I think the Sharks could get the upper hand over the Brumbies - and move into semi-final position, where they would have to meet either the Chiefs or the Stormers - depending on the top 2 log positions - which could still change.

On Friday night performances - I give the Bulls NO chance to beat the Crusaders at Christchurch - so my likely four teams for the semis would be the Chiefs, the Stormers, the Crusaders and the Sharks - but the latter is in a must win situation in both the two games needed before the semi-final stage is reached - in the case of the Cheetahs preferably with a 5-pointer.   In any event - if the Sharks manage to scor e four tries against the Cheetahs - all other teams fall away - irrespective of whether they manage a 5 point win or not.   In general my feeling is that the Sharks will be number 6 - come what may.

The Hurricans can upset the Chiefs - but that would knock the Chiefs off the top of the combined log  and also bring them into consideration for position number 6.   Unlikely though and my forecast for the play-offs would mean 1 new Zealand team - two SA teams and 1 Australian team.   The New Zealanders would not like that to happen. 

It's only the Reds that can do it with a win plus bonus point if the Sharks and Bulls win without the bonus, right?

Canes don't have the wins. Or do they have the other tie breaker?

If the top 6 is as you have it at the end of the season, then I would bet on the final 4 teams being Stormers, Chiefs, Crusaders, Sharks.

Unfortunately, with the way the Stormers are playing, I think it would be an all NZ final. :(