For our Super Rugby final preview, we thought it might be useful to present the cold hard stats, given that the Waratahs and Crusaders have both arrived at the last game of the season in great form.
Every week this Super Rugby season, SANZAR has sent out ‘match packs’ on each game outlining all manner of stats on the two teams in the contest, courtesy of theirofficial statistic supplier Opta Sports.
Each match pack equates to more than twenty pages of information, and so it’s probably obvious why we haven’t used them to any great degree throughout the season. I will, however, admit that I’ve pulled some useful figures out of them for my sideline commentary gig for ABC Grandstand this season.
So, with thanks to SANZAR and Opta Sports, here are the stats that may or may not matter. Make of them what you will…
Set Piece
The Waratahs are operating at a success rate of 85.8 per cent at scrum time, which ranks them tenth in the competition. The Crusaders are going slightly better, at 88.5 per cent, which puts them fourth overall. The Crusaders’ opponents have an average scrum success rate of 76 per cent, the second-lowest in the competition after the Sharks.
At lineout time, the difference is a little more obvious: the Crusaders’ 88.6 per cent has them ranked third overall. The Waratahs sit tenth overall, with a success rate of 82.6 per cent.
Of the top 25 lineout ball-winners in the competition, Crusaders lock Sam Whitelock is ranked seventh overall, with 50 takes in 16 appearances. Dave Dennis’ 38 wins from his 13 games before injury struck still has him ranked 19th.
Whitelock also sits third on the lineout steals rankings, with ten for the year, while his locking partner Dominic Bird has four, and younger brother Luke has four as well. Flanker Stephen Hoiles sits 18th on the list with four steals, and is the only Waratah in the top 25.
The Crusaders have averaged the most lineout steals (2.4) per game this year, with their opponents’ success rate of 78 per cent the lowest in the competition.
Defence
The Waratahs have the second-lowest tackles average for Super Rugby, making just 97 tackles per game. The Crusaders make 109.7 tackles per game by comparison, which rates them seventh overall.
The Waratahs miss the fewest number of tackles on average, at just 14.1 per match, while the Crusaders miss 18.1 per game. For their respective semi-finals, the Waratahs missed just eight of 115 attempted, while the Crusaders missed 21 of 101.
Both sides have operated at around 86-87 per cent tackle effectiveness for the season, but the Waratahs completed 93 per cent in their semi, while the Crusaders dropped to 79 per cent against the Sharks.
Michael Hooper ranked sixth overall for tackles made (178, 10.8 per match), while Matt Todd (141, 10.8) and Sam Whitelock (139, 8.7) also make the top 25 players.
And while we’re naming names, Andy Ellis, Ryan Crotty, and Kurtley Beale have all missed 23 tackles for the year, while Bernard Foley and Colin Slade have both missed 22.
That means 1.3-1.4 a game.
Attack
Both sides have averaged similarly for the season, The Waratahs scoring 29.8 points per game while conceding 16.5, and the Crusaders 28.4 for and 19.3 against. The two teams come into the Final with the biggest points differentials, +227 and +155 respectively.
The Waratahs have scored 59 tries for the season (3.4 per game), while letting in 25 (1.5). The Crusaders have scored 47 tries (2.8 per game), while letting in 36 (2.1).
Waratahs fullback Israel Folau and rampaging Crusaders winger Nemani Nadolo sit first and second on the try-scorers rankings, with 12 and 11, respectively, from 13 games each.
Bernard Foley (229 points from 17 games) and Colin Slade (178 from 16) sit first and fourth on the points scoring list for the season.
Though the Waratahs made more ball-carries and gained more metres per game than the Crusaders, both sides averaged either side of four metres per carry. The Waratahs also passed significantly more than any other side this season, nearly 28 more passes per game.
The Waratahs ranked second and first, respectively, for defenders beaten and clean breaks, while the Crusaders rank eighth and third.
Tidbits of gold
• Michael Hooper is the only player in the Final to have played every minute this season, while Adam Ashley-Cooper, Bernard Foley, Kane Douglas, Kurtley Beale, Nick Phipps, and Tatafu Polota-Nau have played all 17 games for the Waratahs. Ryan Crotty is the only Crusader to have played every game, but he has been replaced several times this season.
• This is the third time the ‘Tahs have made it to the final, losing to the Crusaders on both previous occasions (2005, 2008).
• Since the inauguration of Super 14 in 2006, the Crusaders have won all nine meetings between these trans-Tasman rivals. The Crusaders also won both meetings in 2005 (including the Final) and you need to go back to February 2004 for the Waratahs’ last success against the New Zealand outfit, a 43-19 away from home win in Round 1.
• The NSW side continue to top the charts for average tries, carries, metres, passes, breaks and offloads. They have also missed the fewest number of tackles this year, an average of 14.1 per week.
• While the Waratahs top the charts for offloads, opponents of the Crusaders have produced fewer per game (8) than any other side.
• Opponents of the Waratahs have won more turnovers (9.6) than against any other team.
• Bernard Foley has landed 78 per cent of his shots at goal this year, while Colin Slade has notched 79 per cent. Dan Carter has kicked 12 from 20, a success rate of just 60 per cent.
• Kurtley Beale (225) and Israel Dagg (201) are the only men to make 200+ carries this season.
• Both Nemani Nadolo and Israel Folau have accrued 50 defenders beaten this year, only two others can better this.
• Beale has had a direct hand in 18 tries this season (8 tries, 10 assists), more than anybody else.
• Folau has made at least 21 more offloads (47) than any other player this season, while Nadolo leads the way for clean breaks with 26, with Folau on 25 and Adam Ashley-Cooper on 21.
• Of players to play more than 10 games this season, Nadolo has the best average gain per carry (9.97m).
• The Waratahs have a minus points difference (-13) in the second quarter of games this season, while the Crusaders’ score is positive in all four segments.
• The Tahs have scored 15 tries in the opening quarter of matches this season, more than any other side. The Crusaders have managed just six in the same period. The Waratahs have conceded fewer first quarter (4) and last quarter (5) tries than any other side.
• The Crusaders have scored more first phase tries (25) than any other side this year and nine more than the Sydney-based side.
• 13 of the 59 tries the Waratahs have scored this season have originated from turnovers, more than any other side in the competition.
