The information Mozart Refuses to accept

Over the last four weeks there has been constant threads of Mozart to advocate the selection of Francois Steyn at 12 for the Springboks - the latest shouts and screams being to select him at 10.

Mozart loves to use stats -  provided those support his point of view in players,   Otherwise he finds reasons why the stats should not be used nakedly to indicate the capacity of players.   There I agree with him - but I raised he argument that stats over a period indicates tendencies in player performances.   Although the argument centers around context and can affect thins like missed tackles - there are elements of stats where context means zero - eg knocking on/spilling of balls,  Those are poor play with no excise.

I have made an extract from ESPN and the findings are as follows:-

Steyn

0/1

23

14/24/31

66

0

8

2

9

21/6

0/0

6

0/0

de Allende

1/1

0

4/14/36

195

3

12

0

5

36/7

0/0

0

0/0

The above are the combined stats of the two players concerned this far in Super 15.  I am not going to do a full analyses of the stats,  The stats speak loud and clear.

Lets look at a few elements:-

*   Line breaks  -  Steyn   =  0    De Allende    =  3

*   Defenders beaten  -  Steyn   =  8   De Allende  =  12

*   Possession losses  -  Steyn   =  9  De Alende   =    5

*   Penalties given away  -  Steyn = 6 De Allende  =    0

Bearing in mind that Steyn plays for a team with no losses thus far in 2013 and De Allende plays for a struggling team - one would expect that Steyn would show much better than De Allendem but th exact opposite is in evidence.

The pertinent question is - has Steyn shown enough to justify his selection to the Springbok team and the answer is NO - DEFINITELY NOT      

  

Dear me. Comparing two players in different games, when one played a game at 10 and the other played a game on the wing. That's a problem right there. But let's go with your line of reasoning. You say De Allende has been a more potent attacker....but what sort of defence did they encounter? De Allende ran 195 m and had to beat 12 defenders to do that ....87 of those metres of course came in 7 runs on the wing. Fransie beat 8 defenders in making 66 metres. Advantage De Allende you say. But that means Fransie encounters a tackler every 8.25 metres....De Allende encounters a tackler every 16.25 metres. Who, I ask you with tears in my eyes was running through traffic?
Do me a favour old chap, take your silly theories elsewhere, I really don't have the patience to teach you basic stats. I have zero interest in conversing with you, for heaven sake have some pride and seek out others who take you seriously.

Mozart
Losing possession of the ball and giving away penalties are not theories - those are facts.   Making line breaks and beating defenders are facts - not theories.  At flyhalf Steyn had more chances of doing well - than De Allende had on the wing and he botched it by losing possession and by missing  50% of his tackles.
You do not want to discuss issues with me because I do not accept your silly theories - there is nothing that you say ever that is based on fact - they are indeed silly theories.
You were devious as per normal  - I referred specifically to four  issues - namely Line breaks, defenders beaten, ball possession losses and penalties given away as examples of poor play.  you tried to get around that by referring to the meters gained issue.  So lets accept that  De Allende made 84 meters in the game he played at center and take that off the meter gain.

Now lets look at the meters made while both played at center:-
De Allende    =      111 meters Steyn          =        53 meters
Who I ask you with tears in my eyes were better in running through traffic?   in the Hurricanes game specifically.   Both played at center against the same opponent:-
De Allende     =       53 metersSteyn           =       16 meters
In the other two matches at center the stats were as follows:
De Allende     =       58 metersSteyn           =       37 meters
Now redo your calculations with the above in mind and do not try and fool people in believing your silly arguments.  I ask you with tears in my eyes how you can argue away facts.
Playing against the Chiefs and the Crusaders are definitely playing against stronger opposition than playing against the Bulls and the Reds.
Statistically  Steyn was so poor in his center performances that on Foxsport he was given the following performance points at center:-
*   Bulls           -     9 points*   Hurricanes   -   15 points*   Reds          -   - 8 points
He is at present with 37 points 28th on the list of centers playing in Super 15 - that despite the fact that he got 23 points for successful kicks at goal,    There is not a single performer at center who lost more ball possession, gave away more penalties and was worse in defense than Steyn.

You know your arguments are  without any basis whatsoever and that it is based on prejudice - and not on fact.