The most likely theoretical path to a WC win

The most likely path is as follows: 

Ireland beat Scotland and the Boks play France in  Quarter Final 4.

Assuming we win that,  in the semi final we then face the winner of Pool D England or the Runner Up in Pool C Fiji or Australia. On current form that is likely to be England

The other semi final will likely be NZ or Ireland vs Wales. So NZ or Ireland are likely to progress to the Final

So the path to a win assuming nothing weird happens in Scotland vs Ireland is:

Beat Tonga

Beat France

Beat England

Beat Ireland or New Zealand.

This is really not much different to the challenge we faced before the Ireland loss. Probability of success ….one would now say 95% against Tonga, 50% against France, 60% against England and 45% against Ireland presumably they are the final opponent.

Overall probability of winning that probability string 13%. It’s more complicated to evaluate all the possible tail end events, but if NZ is the opponent because of the match ups…perhaps it goes to 16%. And given the probability of that vs France is perhaps 50/50…..the overall probability calculates at 14.5% 

So it’s still doable…but very tough. It’s become a little tougher because the Bok odds have lengthened against France, NZ and Ireland with our inability to put Ireland away. And because England have found some form.

If we had won yesterday I would have said we were 100% likely to beat Tonga, 55% likely to beat NZ …75% likely to beat Wales and 55% likely to beat France/Ireland. Giving a probability of 23%.

Our fragility against Ireland has dropped our theoretical probability to win the WC from 23% to 14.5%…quite a big drop. But we are still in with a shot. 

Pool B is somewhat like a another mini World Cup within the larger World Cup...very testing and energy sapping for the 3 likely contestant teams. Could Scotland upset Ireland, maybe but most rugby pundits don't think so. But world cups can have surprises as in some cases in the past. In 2011 in NZ, Tonga beat France in pool stages, yet France ended up in the final in NZ only to lose by 1 point against NZ in home ground.A lot of folk felt that Craig Joubert made an error in one of his calls but that is another debate.

Can Scotland throw a spanner in the works, ofcourse it can.

 https://www.scotsman.com/sport/rugby-union/rugby-world-cup-what-scotland-need-to-qualify-after-irelands-win-over-south-africa-4346872

I feel like Ireland played far nearer to their ceiling than we did.

In this WC, maybe. Otherwise, certainly not.

So far, IR has failed to display what have been their regular strengths for years now and it did not depend on SA rugby as it happened in the other games.

The only strength they are in par with: marshalling the ruck zone.

They seem to be off somewhat, maybe not be the case for the finals though.

Liberals struggle with the society they have built, they keep denying.

Odds are mostly designed to support gambling habits, they do not reflect chances but are computed first to drive people to gamble second to ensure the bet organizing company makes a profit.

It makes no sense to compare the odds with the starting ones as FR for example lost their half back paiting (due ironically to liberals' addiction to gambling)

Odds like

SA rugby VS FR: 65 +, 35-, SA rugby VS EN:  85+, 15 -, IR VS SA rugby: 55+, 45 -

are more likely to be expected from models designed to predict the outcome of the games.

Problem: they wont drive people in gambling as much.

Liberals cant accept the society as they have organized it.

A lot of folk felt that Craig Joubert made an error in one of his calls but that is another debate.

He made at least 33 bad calls. There was a video on it. There were three critical ball calls leading to the "winning" penalty.