The penny finally drops re small backs and I hope Moz and company take note

Years ago I pointed out the Boks were being outgunned by bigger Oz and Nz backlines. Jake fortunately fixed the problem with big centers like Jean, Frans and Jaque Fourie. However dispite the overwhelming evidence against the playing of small backs (One possibly being the maximimum if the individual was particularly brilliant) some unfortunately clung to the outdated view that small backs were fine.

However the wisdom of Beeno's seminal thinking all those years ago is now being justified. I have also to give some credit surprisingly to snapster as he also finally followed me on this matter. (Snapster though still gets it hopelesly wrong regarding forwards where he punts matfield a 106 kg string bean at lock and wee keegan daniel as a loosie - the mind boggles of course but clearly the penny hasnt dropped for snapster and a few others as well. Hopefully they will get it some time in the distant future. But I digress as this thread is about backs:

Ex Supersport

The DHL Stormers look set to call out a new halfback combination for Friday’s final Vodacom Super Rugby tour match against the Rebels in Melbourne.

Coach Allister Coetzee said from Sydney on Monday that there was “a big possibility” that Louis Schreuder and Elton Jantjies respectively will come in to replace Dewaldt Duvenage and Gary van Aswegen.

Rugby in the Cape is a fickle business, and after Jantjies took plenty of flak in the early season for his error-rate and not being able to fit into the Stormers playing pattern, and was more recently even unfairly blamed for the loss to the Blues, all now appears forgiven in the light of the mistakes made by Van Aswegen in the last game.

That the Stormers do need to bring some kind of edge to their attacking game is beyond debate. And it also may not be a coincidence that in the games that the Stormers did show some kind of try-scoring form this season, against the Chiefs and the Brumbies, there were subtle little touches from Jantjies that contributed to quite a few of the five pointers.(And at other tims cost us the match - its Russian roulette stuff)

But to blame an individual for the failings of last week, when the Stormers appeared incapable of taking the ball beyond second phase without making a mistake, would be short-sighted. The problems the Stormers are being pilloried for now did not start when Van Aswegen was selected into the No 10 jersey.

Indeed, his play in the 22-14 victory over the Sharks immediately before the overseas tour was hailed as one of the reasons the Stormers looked so comfortable in that game, even though he was never much more than a link.

Blaming the flyhalf ignores the role that the Stormers game-plan played in last week’s narrow defeat to the Waratahs as well as the equally close loss to the Blues the week before. To put it simply, the Stormers just don’t have any balance to their game, and tend to be too extreme in following the plan on a given day.(We have all seen this for a couple of seasons the side does need to attack more)

Against the Waratahs, with all that team’s game-breakers, the instruction to the Stormers was always going to be to eliminate mistakes and not give the Australian side anything to play with. In other words suffocate them with your defence and then when you do have the ball hold onto it.

PERCEIVED WEAKNESS

The first part of that plan they got right in Sydney, but it was the second part that undid them, and it did appear at times that when they got the ball it was an unexpected event they hadn’t planned for. That does happen too often with the Stormers, and it long pre-dates the arrival of Van Aswegen in the No 10 jersey.

Even the soundest defensive system is going to concede the odd try to a freakish bit of brilliance, and the Stormers do have an inherent weakness that they love to gloss over but remains a constant. The Waratahs were perhaps a bit lucky with their first try in that the ball bounced off Israel Folau’s chest and straight into the hands of wing Cam Crawford. That ball could have gone anywhere.(Exactly so and I said as much but that one eyed Redsman couldnt admit it)

But the Waratahs wouldn’t have been in position to score had it not been for Folau beating Bryan Habana and Joe Pietersen in the air, and the concern there is that this was hardly an unforeseen event. Skipper Jean de Villiers was asked at a media briefing conducted by teleconference from the Newlands boardroom last week whether he was not concerned that the bigger Waratahs back three would be able to exploit that advantage by going the aerial route.

He said it wasn’t a concern, and of course he had to say that. No captain worthy of the position, or coach for that matter, publicly admits to a potential weakness and in so doing runs down and undermines the confidence of an individual player. This fact does admittedly introduce question marks over the relevance of having pre-match press conferences, but that is another issue.

The more pressing issue for the Stormers at the moment is that quite apart from any perceived weaknesses they may have at halfback, they have failed to address the weakness that sunk them in the 2010 Super 14 final at Orlando Stadium – namely they have a small back three that gets easily beaten in the air and also gets turned over too easily out wide when they run. (AT LAST THE PENNY DROPS - OH IF ONLY ALLISTAIR WOULD REA MY POSTS SUCCESS WOULD BE ASSURED!!!!!!!!!)

At least back then the Stormers still had Jaque Fourie at outside centre, but even then it looked apparent that they lacked something after the axing of Sireli Naqelevuki a fortnight earlier. The big wing frustrated many with his at times apparently sloppy approach to dropping back for kicks, a weakness that is common for a lot of players of his ilk and from his part of the world, but was almost impossible for opponents to dispossess when he had the ball in his hands, frequently taking several defenders with him.

Fine player though Juan de Jongh undeniably is, he’s quite diminutive for an outside centre, and the players outside him, wonderful attackers though they may be, are small and easily turned over when they are caught. That undermines any confidence to take the ball wide, particularly for a Stormers team that has the mindset that opportunities should not be presented to the opposition at any cost. (HOW I LOVE I T WHEN THESE JOURNALISTS FINALLY TWIGG AND PARROT WHAT I HAVE BEEN SAYING - THIS IS A MAJOR PROBLEM. However the other problems were the injuries to Tiaan and Grant anD the failure to play Fourie at 6 and of course the large amount of injuries generally)

Perhaps it’s unfair to say the Stormers don’t recognise this. Gerhard van den Heever was brought to the Cape at the start of 2012 precisely to address the shortfall in size at the back, and Jaco Taute was supposed to be the big player in the last line of defence this year but got injured after just a few games.

Van den Heever should be considered as an option to start against the Rebels, but when Bryan Habana leaves for Toulon at the end of this Super Rugby season the Stormers management should regard it as top priority that they find a replacement that will address the area where, if you will excuse the pun, they are falling short.

The writer also  fails to mention other big guys like Allende, Howard and also Du Plessis whom Coetzee could have used

Whilst I have  every sympathy for Allistair regarding all the injuries suffered I still think he does not have the kop to compete at this level. We need a top  coach.     We also need and an investigation by Prof Noakes and his team as to why all these injuries happened - extend that investigation to the Sharks as well. Luck doesnt get that bad. Over thirty players have been injured re these two franchises!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Beeno

Don't praise yourself overmuch and says "I am so good - I cannot speak too highly of myself".   The problem with the Stormers backline was apparent in the season already.   In for instance the Bulls game in Round 2, Jantjies had a shocker - but the outside defence held up - since they played De Allende at 12 and De Villiers at 13, with Taute at full back if my memory serve me correctly.   That basically workd well up to the Chiefs game in Round 4 - but then Coetzee went haywire and started playing De Jongh, Aplon and Pieteresen - the latter to cover for Jantjies shocking goal kicking deficiencies and the fact that Taute got injured.

Jantjies had two good touches against the Chiefs and was shockingly poor for the remainder of the season - even though Saffex dreams that he is on par with Lambie and better than Catrakillis.   His defence was extremely poor - a fact confirmed by defensive stats.   Over the past two years De Jongh did nothing on attck - but he gained the reputation dubiously that he was a good defender.   He had other probems due to his size as well - he easily lost possession in tackle situations, knocked on balls and gave away penalties.   In two years he scored three tries and Mozart made him a hero.   He was anything but - although he scored two tries against the Cheetahs in Bloenfontein - he vanished from sight  in the second half of the game (contributing to their loss)  and in the Blues game he was tossed around like a paper doll.  However, his main problem is defence.   Before the Waratahs game he missed 25% of all attempted tackles and in the latter game it went up to 40%.   Aplon next to him is also a weak defender and so is Pietersen.   

How Coetzee could miss the obvious completely is beyond me.   He cannot have three extremely poor defenders in the 15, 14 and 13 positions and expect that the defencsive system would work.   Last week I forecasted that the Waraths would beat the Stormers because of their big outside players - especially Folau - and it happened exactly according to my forecast.

One do ot know what Coetzee is going to come up this week - bu II think the shockingly small backkline players are going to be retained - and a defeat is inevitable against the Rebels.  The latter team has lost a key player - O'Connor - but they have the loosies that will make the frightened Jantjies quiver in his boots and when he sees them coming he is going to do his ordinary and drop or knock-on balls and if they are in possession of the ball - they are going to run over him (as per normal) like he is not there at all.   For that one "touch" he may or may not come up with - three are going to be three negatives.  The main consolation is that if he flop early as expected in teh first half - he could be benched, but the damage may have ben done by then.

The first two players to go - however - remains De Jongh and Aplon.   With those two in the backline - the game is a goner.   So lets wait and see what happens as to the selections for the Rebels game.  

As to injuries - yes they should seek professional advice.   However, some injuries is not really a mystery.   Take for instance the Francois Steyn case.   Since his return from Frane he never really was in top physical and fitness form and his two major injuries could b attributed to that deficieny.   Although he was losing some of the excess weight and slowly getting fitter - he wa not fully fit yet and unfit players are more subhect to injuries than others.   Not that I am stating all injuries are due to unfitness - some are indeed freaksih - like happened in the Goosen and Jordaan cases - but for the rest a proper investigation is essential.  

Injuries do not always impact on the absence of players from games for longusih periods - when theyreturn - they are not fully matchfit and often enough take time to get really matchfit and produce the goods.   For instance Etzebeth was iffy against the Blues - but showed signs of improvement in the Reds game.   This improvement should continue in later games.   What i a saying basically is that injured players will after return often take a few matches t really start performing.  

In essence though - I agree - professional advice is required.    .       

Beeno

The team is out and Coetzee retains the microlight backline in full - adding Jantjies to the mix.  Statistically Jantjies is a far worse defender than Van Aswegen - so the defensive sieve has been made worse than ever before.  

I forecast another loss against the Rebels - even though O'Connor is not playing.  What a farce

Its all very depressing stuff and I will soon be on medication at this rate!  My analyst says my trying to advise Allistair, mentoring all the kiwi bird brains and keeping a watch on rooitwit  is all too much for anyone's sanity!

Mike I will try to be more humble in future but its hard for reasons you will understand!

Its all so depressing!

What's with your obsession with size? Would a whole team of props make you happy? I don't get it and don't want to see rugby go the way of league.... You still need fucking brains to play ruga thank christ.

Size comes in two flavours....height and weight. Bryan Habana is a "small" wing in terms of height. Should we never have played him? This stuff is mostly half baked. The small Stormers outside backs are easily turned. Really? Is that statistically true? I see Aplon week after week retaining the ball in the tackle. 

The fact is the Stormers do have too much of a good thing with Joe, Aplon, De Jongh and , dare I say, Jantjies. But a big fullback probably solves that.....as long as its not the clumsy Taute. There is a classic case of Saffas anointing a big, slow barger.....who has been a disaster in this S15, just like he was a disaster against NZ. If that's what size can do for us, we are better off without.

The fact is size is crucial at 12, 15.....very desirable on the wings and at 10. Size at 9 and 13 is less important. And even at 12, the most impressive performer in the 6 Nations was Wesley Fofana, at 5'10" and 195 lbs scarcely larger than de Jongh.

Balance is important, you need a few good jumpers in the back three....some heavy tacklers in the inside channels, and a few secure tacklers ...one on one...in space. Not all of those needs have to, or are likely to be covered by Taute like heavies.

Mozart

I am not a size freak - such as the case is of Saffex and Beeno.   To my mind the issue in backlines have a number of components and those are -

*   ball sense and skills;

*   bodly strength'

*   speed

Insofar as ball sense and skills is concerned it is obvious that a bigger and strobger player with ball sense and skills are more effective than a smaller player.   However, you find a bigger player like for instance Francois Steyn often enough lis lacking insofar as this issue is concerned and he is effectivvely less effective at center than for instance he would be at full back.

The second component is bodily strength.   Although Habana is comparatively small he as adequate bodily strength and speed - and is probably a player with more advanced levels of ball sesne and skills than most other rugby players playing at wing.  

However, this combination is not true in some other cases in for instance other backline players in the Stormers team  - who has a deficiency on more than one lementof the three mentioned above.   Take for instance the cases of the following players:-

Pietersen

He does have some ball sense  and skills -  he has the necessary spped - but he is not -

*   a strong runner with ball in hand;

*  competitive with taller players under high balls; and

*   an adequate defender since his smaller stature contributes to him being a weak tackler.

Aplon

He definitely has speed and ball sense and skills, but he is lacking in respect of bodily strength inasmuch as he is not -

*   a strong runner with ball in hand;

*   competitive with taller players under high balls;

*    adequate at all in defence - in fact he is a weaker defender than Pietesen and that is statistically proven  as well.

De Jongh

This really is a remarkable case.   Staiistically he was for two years the number 13 center with the weakest try scorng record in Super 15 and as a matter of fact on other levels of rugby as well.   In 2011 and 2012 he scored a total of three tries on Super 15 level and CC level combined.   He did better this year - inasmuch as his try-scoring record is concerned - he scored three tries this year.  He also during 2011 and 212 develop a reputation that he is a good defender.

However - if one looks at the three elements mentioned above - there are serious problems in all three elements as mentioned above:-

 *   Ball sense and skills

De Jongh is not what a person can describe as a ball sense player.   His ability to vanish out of sight like he did in the Twickenham test and in the case of for instance in thes econd haf of the Cheetahs - Stormers game in Super 15 indicates that he has a negative ball sense capacity.  

There are serious question markks about three elements - namely ball handling, passing of balls and gving away of penaties.   one or more of these three deficiencies are noticeable in every game he plays in.

*    Speed

This element is satisfactory when put into space - but he is not the speediest 13 around and has been caught by oher players when he is in space.

*   Bodily strength

He definitely is not a strong runner with ball in hand and rarely makes a line break on his own.   However, this year in particular his defnesive stats are an absolute nightmare.   Whereas he had the reputation of being a good defender - he this year his tackling deteriorated badly.   Staitsitically he missed completely more than 25% of all attempted tackles.

The combination of having three poor defenders in 13, 14 and 15 is a real problem for the Stormers - but if that was off-set by the ability to bee strong in attack and strong runners with ball in hand - it could ave been a realsitic backline combination.   It definitely is seriously defenctive.

I agree with you provisonally when you say 10 and 13 could be smaller sized players.  However, the proviso is that players in those positions  have all the elements that I mentione as requirements as indiated above.   If those elemens are missing - then the smallish built of the players are not acceptabe either.

In summary - the players at present in the Stormers backline in positions 10, 13, 14 and 15 are totally inadequate and do not bring even 30% of what is realy required to the party.   As long as the present players are used there will always be gaping holes in both defence and attack.

Geez Oom Maaik it must be painful to have your brain.

Mozart

Not painful at all - but I am a realist and it really hurt by the poor performances of the Stormers this year.   Why don't you try and comment on my statements as made above and not try and sideline them by a personal observation about me?

Dave....in an ideal world I would agree with you. But so often the trade off to size is a one that sacrifices agility and quick thinking. Who would you rather have Bastareaud or Fofana. To me the choice is clear.

And I think 10 is the position that really absorbs the big runners. Most teams finesse this with loosie help....but think back to Honibal. In my view he was a pretty ordinary attacking flyhalf and a sub standard kicker. But his defence was one of the reasons we had our great 98.

Mozart

I agree with you about Honibal. .   I can remember the British Lions test in Dyrban - where the Springboks scored three tries.  Honibal missed the conversions of the three tries and also the conversion of twpo penalty attempts.   Becuase of these misses the Sproingboks lost the test 18-15.

He in that test was much like Morne Steyn was in the tests he played in last year - totally inaccurate in goal kicking.

The problem with 10 lies in a number of elements, namely -

*   ability to read the game and to  take quick decisions that would optimnise the maximum benefit their teams can attain through possession of the ball (in other words a high level of ball sense);

*   have a cool head and do not panick under pressure by knocking on balls and delay actions to be taken;

*   the ability to himself attack the gain line when appropriate and help to create space for players outside of him to carry the attack further;

*   the ability to kick accurately - especially relieving kicks and strategic kicking;

*   the ability to defend when the opposition attacks in the pocket.

We have in general - other than Morne Steyn - smaller players at 10 and other than Jantjies they generally meet the requirements as mentioned above.   Jantjies is a lotto player - in extremely rare cases he does something effective - for the rest he is totally unpredictable and often enough cost his team territory and possession.   He also has an atorious goal kicking record for the Stormers and they do not even rely on him for that purpose.   His line kicking is often enough aimless and easily fielded by the opposition.   His defence in the channel borders on the non-existent - especially when the heavier forwards runs at him when h knocks on balls or just drop them..

My basic conttention is that a smaller player can manage at 10 provided he meets the other requirements as mentioned above