Some things have changed with the first test lost. Most obviously, to claim success the Boks have to win the next three tests. A two all draw favors the visiting team, as was the case last year when we split the two match series with NZ. Clearly this is now a harder task, but still doable for a team with the Springboks pack strength.
But NZ will be the less stressed team starting on Saturday, that could be a good or bad thing. The ABs have been written off too recently to feel comfortable losing on Saturday though, so I’m expecting two teams with WC level motivation.
From the Bok’s perspective Eben’s form is one of the positives. I thought he had blinder, stealing two lineouts, tackling with purpose and showing his pace out wide in one athletic run. He looked like himself. The scrums are the other big positive. But only in the first half. The NZ subs did better than Lomax and particularly de Groot…..but for the most part they were packing against Steenkamp and Porthen who was popping out of every scrum….so with Thomas subbing in the next test this is likely to still be a major NZ vulnerability. Possibly a fatal one.
In the plus column for NZ, their backs negated the rush defense pretty well and the handling was slick. And while their tight forwards struggled, the loose forwards edged the contest. Vaa’i was far better than Dud Toit on the day and after a fast start de Villiers faded with Jacobson busting through Dud Toit for a crucial try. Wiese and Savea were both outstanding. Saturday could also be decided by the loosies and with Kolisi coming back, NZ have a shot. Victory won’t seem as unlikely and the Boks belief, a big asset, won’t be quite as strong.
Then we have the coaching and face it, we were out coached. Geraasmus has admitted to missing the stand them up and strip tactic. But it was obvious from early in the game and nothing changed after the half. Then there was the Porthen selection, bold but unwise….something for the third or fourth test if you were up. This was compounded by pulling Ox just at the point the scrums were turning the match in our favor and also playing Wessels for Steenkamp late in the game. And of course there was the no plan B issue.
By contrast Rennie may not have the horses in the front row, but the team just dealt with it. The defense was excellent, one missed tackle on Esterhozen excepted. There was relatively little gratuitous kicking and it seemed good understanding among the players. And then there was the hectic pressure on Williams and Sacha….much like Dud Toit did to George Ford in 99, NZ never gave them an inch except out wide…..and that led directly to Holland’s try.
So NZ should expect even more forward pressure, quite possibly a scrum yellow card and huge intensity. But without Sacha starting and the Reinach/Pollard/ Allende/Kriel inside backs a totally predictable Bok game plan. Also while Hooker is a terrific young player….losing Kolbe also weakens the turnover ball potency
Lose this one and the rest of the year could be miserable for the Boks. France has the players to do what NZ did without cracking in the scrums although their head case proclivity remains and even Ireland could be tough at home.
Losing at Ellis Park has made things a lot harder
