The QF predictions and the NZA conference

everything is already decided in the aussie and saffa conferences,....... and everything is yet to be decided in the NZ 's,....... depending on what happens next weekend in the NZ conf. thus the finals' pairing will be

in the aussie conf. the brumbies are almost the finalists,.... they play Force (last australasian team at home). If they win by more than 3tries (which is very probable), the waratahs can't do anything,......... if they don't get the BP and the waratahs either they also classify,....... the only option for the tahs is if they win with BP (which I see as very improbable against the blues at Auckland) and the brumbies lose (almost impossible) or win without the BP (improbable)
So the brumbies will be the aussie's only representative and they will be the 4th seeding

The Stormers will be the 3th seeding. Sharks the 8th (unless they lose at home against the sunwolves) and the Lions will lead the SA group and if they win at Buenos Aires (70/30) tehy will be first feeding.

So everything depends on what the NZ teams do next saturday,....... we have Saders-Canes and Landers-Chiefs,...... anything can happens but the most probable outcome IMO is a saders victory (80/20) due to the home advantage and the fact that they use to beat the canes in the last years,......... and a landers win (65/35) due to the same factors (home adv. and that they have chiefs' number the same way chiefs have saders' or saders have canes'),..... against the landers runs the fact that they come from a literal travelling around the globe
in this case ( and even if the chiefs win but saders win with a BP and both end up with the same amount of points) the saders will be the first of the NZ conf.

-So the most probable result will be:
1. Lions
2. Crusaders
3. Stormers
4. Brumbies
5. Highlanders
6. Chiefs
7. Hurricanes
8. Sharks

which will give the following confrontations:
1. Lions-8. Sharks                     Lions (95/5)
2. Crusaders-7. Hurricanes        saders (80/20)
3. Stormers-6. Chiefs          50/50 (stormers can impose their forwards or chiefs their backline)
4. Brumbies-5. Highlanders       landers (95/5)

IMO sharks and brumbies are a level down and they have almost no possibilities


-the most probable variation of this will be that the chiefs win and the saders win but without a BP in which case the chiefs will lead the NZ conf and the feeding will be:
1. Lions
2. Chiefs
3. Stormers
4. Brumbies
5. Crusaders
6. Highlanders
7. Hurricanes
8. Sharks

1. Lions-8. Sharks                      Lions (95/5)
2. Chiefs-7. Hurricanes               chiefs (65/35)
3. Stormers-6. Highlanders         landers (65/35 )
4. Brumbies-5. Crusaders           Saders (95/5)

-and the next most probable variation will be that the Lions lose at B.A. in which case:
1. Crusaders
2. Lions
3. Stormers
4. Brumbies
5. Highlanders
6. Chiefs
7. Hurricanes
8. Sharks

1. Crusaders-8. Sharks          Saders (99/1)
2. Lions-7. Hurricanes    canes (60/40,) they already crushed them in JHB
3. Stormers-6. Chiefs            50/50
4. Brumbies-5. Highlanders    landers (95/5)

this is no doubt the best for the saders,....... and the most interesting one with 3 games NZ-SA and one AUS-NZ.


For the saders, their most difficult pairing would be with the canes at home (unless they lose against them next sat in which case they will very probably have to travel to SA to play the stormers (80/20 for saders),

The most probable QF for the chiefs will be against the stormers at Newlands,..... apart from the hard game, it implies to travel there,..... but they can also play the canes at home

The stormers will play against a kiwi team,...... the chiefs the most probable (and the most attainable one for them IMO),.... but it could be landers or even saders

the Lions only have to win in B.A. to assure an easy QF against the sharks

 The Lions are significantly handicapped by having to fly to Bargieland and back for a QF

 Cheers BP for all the permutations ! Potential banana skin Moz?

Maybe.....they are playing well, but it's a long trip across many time zones. Definitely the short straw.  

 nah,...... a round trip to Argentina doesn't affect the players

something like what the lander have done,..... from NZ to SA, from SA to Arg and from Arg to NZ (a complete round to the globe, across every time zone),....... combined with the travel they have to face for the QF,...... let say that they travel again to SA to play the stormers,....... if they classify and have to play the SF in NZ,.... yeah, after those 5 travels in 5 weeks around the globe the players could be affected,......

but a round trip to B.A.? no, I don't think so

you saffas have always over rated the effects of trips,...... to use it as excuse when underperforming,...... but it wasn't even true that the saffa teams travelled more,...... they had to travel less than aussies and kiwis

 I do not think a trip to BA and back will affect the Lions - and if they win - they will have the Sharks at home to content with in the quarterfinals - not too difficult a game.  

Mozart has been going on about the SA sides being sub-par - but a more worrying aspect of Super Rugby is the Aussie teams.   Bad news for Super Rugby that lot.  

I think the present system is not acceptable and wrote elsewhere that there need to be a drastic change to the system.  Have three conferences comprised as follows:-    

New Zealand Conference:

Blues,  Chiefs, Crusaders, Highlanders, Hurricanes, Pacific Islanders

Australian  Conference:

Brumbies, Force, Rebels, Reds,  Sunwolves, Waratahs

South Africa Conference:

Bulls, Cheetahs, Jaguares, Lions, Sharks, Stormers

Let the six teams play each other in the first five rounds to qualify for –

*  The Cup Tournament – the top 4 teams in each conference

*  The Plate tournament – the 2 teams not qualifying in each conference

The Cup Tournament

The top 12 teams then have to qualify for the play-off rounds by playing each other (ie 11 games each

The Plate Tournament     

 The six teams must play home and away games internally to qualify for the play-off games.

 

That would ultimately lead to a system where stronger teams have to play each other without honeymoon games against weaker teams – giving a distorted picture of their real strength in the competition. 

 

Travel matters.
Particularly West to East and the earlier the start of the game, the worse the effect. There are mountains of data in the NFL to prove this.
Biorhythms are all messed up, don't sleep as well in a different bed, routine is off - different gym / food / clubhouse, miss the family, the travel itself is tiring and hard on the joints - the bigger you are the worse it is. It all adds up. 
Doesn't mean its always a factor in the game, but it can be a decider if the matchup is even.