If we want to see cricket scores against us in the RC by especially Australia and new Zealand - keep the present side which played against Wales. Why do I say that?
Wales was the third lowest rated side in the 6 Nations. They lost badly against the Irish (25-3) and put up poor performances against the English and the Italians. During the 6 Nations they had one of their major play makers - Leigh Halfpenny - available.
The backline
The first test we did well enough against them - but that really was the Willie le Roux show. The other players played around him and they benefitted virtually totally from his miracle performances in that test.
In the test yesterday we struggled badly against the Welsh.. Wales realized the danger posed by Le Roux yesterday and tried to neutralize him - that was in fact only lost in the last 10 minutes of the game.
There are two issues here - the only real play makers we had in the present series were Le Roux and to some extent Habana. The rest of the backline was really problematic and to a major extent dull and uninspiring.
The problem starts with the halfback pair. Du Preez was not convincing in either of the tests played. Yesterday he showed very near to zero and I was very unhappy with his very average performance. He is not the player he used to be. Pienaar really is no better and there is an unspiring pair leaving a hole in scrummie performances that needs to be filled.
Morne is a really dull and robotic flyhalf. He tries the minimum himself and unlike in the past - when his game was concentrated on his kicking - his present efforts all are aimed at getting the ball to Willie le Roux and hope for some miracle to happen. Himself he does very little. That is the reason for all his skip passes yesterday. In the process he cut out Serfontein - who saw the ball rarely yesterday. Meantime he does preciously little himself and that remains a serious problem for the team and especially the functioning of the backline.
Serfontein saw very littl balls and what h does saw he used effectively. His defense was very good with a missed tackle ration of below 8%. H was better in the first test and showed enough to leave him in the centr combination.
Pietersen is lost as a 13 - he just is not good enough in that position. His major problem is his defense - which is entirely based on win play - not that of a center. He is a good wing being wasted at 13 and like the Sharks did in 2012 - we need to get away from the idea that he is a player that can be utilized to maximum extent at 13.
So the problem is with the inside players in the backline - the halfbacks and the no 13 center especially.
The Forwards
Here there are serious problems as well. It is clear that we have a good enough no 8 and no 6. and adequate back-up especially in the number 6 position - Marcel Coetzee.
The problem is with the critically important no 7 position. In the present set up we tried Alberts and Burger in that position. For different reasons bth really never makes the grade. Alberts is a low work rate player - he stands around behind mauls - hoping balls come to him to allow for eye-catching carries. If it does he normally dies with the ball 1 meter further. His defense is hampered by his speed impediment - he tackles players who comes near him - sometimes ineffectively and routinely misses more tackles than he should. His ball protection and recovery skills and also his ball handling is non-existent. In totality he is a very limited -capacity player that should be sent packing. Burger tries hard - but there really is no go-forward in his performances anymore. A case where the spirit is willing - but the body less so. This showed clearly in the last two tests he played in.
The lock situation is also critical. Matfield is a problem - he is extremely poor in the tight phases of play - a non-factor in mauls and a problem in support in scrums. His only asset is two-fold - he is good in line outs and in catching kick-in balls, that is if the kick-in balls is actually kicked in his direction. His tackling is feeble and his personal ball carries even more so. Although his tackle stats is good - the effectiveness and quality of the tackles are seriously deficient. The problem with Matfield is his deficiencies in physicality. I am very worried about Flip van der Merwe - he is nowadays regularly carded and before this series he came off a three weak ban for an illegal tackle. Yesterday he got carded again and it cost the Springboks dearly. Even though Van der Merwe has the necessary physicality required from a lock - he lacks in discipline and at this stage is a serious danger for the Springboks.
The props suffer because of deficient support in scrumming. Both the props and the hooker has been seriously over-played by the Sharks and now the Springboks and they need a break. The only prop with rather serious question makes is Jannie du Plessis. In scrumming - with the necessary lock support he is still acceptable - but his contribution outside of the scrums is virtually non-existent. I would say that Du Plessis's position needs reviewing - and that we need to start phasing in younger props to take over from him - especially bearing in mind that he is already 31 years old and is unlikely to be even remotely effective next year.
Bismarck du Plessis has been seriously over-played this year and needs a break badly. Strauss will be abck soon enough and we should start developing hookers like Marx of the Lions i future.
What is to be done in the RC to avoid disaster
I would say that we have te players to make a difference - looking at the following positions:-
* At full back e have adequate resources. Le Roux is a miracle worker and if there is any problem he can be covered by Lambie and even by Mvovo. With his showing of development even Taute and Boshoff can come into the picture.
* At wing we have more than enough players to make a difference in Habana, Pietersen, Hendricks, Mvovo and even Engelbrecht and Jordaan
* We are thin on the ground with centers and I would say the answer is to use the core of De Villiers, Serfonmtein and De Allende as the key centers and if back up is needed we can look at players like Jordaan as well.
* The flyhalf position is critical. It is clear why Morne Steyn is not used as the starting flyhalf by his club. He is unimaginative and never show any play making abilities. At his stage I think we have Goosen and Pollard, as well as Lambie to take over this position and there would be a huge improvement. Boshoff has also showed that he would be an improvement on the robotic and predictable Morne Steyn.
* I was really not impressed with the form shown by Fourie du Preez in the tests against the Aussies and All Blacks last year and even less so by his performances in the last two tests against Wales. He suffers from Japanese Rugby Playing disease. Soft rugby made him a shadow of the player he used to be and he showed yesterday that he is ineffective in all round play and really serve only to pass the ball and kick rather ineffectively. Pienaar is even worse - both get cught in possession to many times - showing a lack of speed in execution - playing the outside backs under pressure. I realize their is something of a deficiency in development of really top scrummies in SA at present - but I think that the process should entail the retention of Du Preez this year and the phasing in of Reinach and Groom into the process and keeping an eye at the development of De Klerk over the coming CC and Super 15 seasons as well.
* Vermeulen remains the key no 8 player in South Africa and there will be a serious problem if he gets injured and is not available. I would say his longer term successor-cum-back up is Arno Botha - with as interim backup being Philip van der Walt
* It really is time to get rid of the limited Alberts and the powder-puff Burger at 7. Juan Smith showed some spark during the Heineken Xup final - but he is also a 32 year-old and not really an option - though Meyer would probably try and get him into the frame. The answer lies in players like Labuschagne, and even the very mobile and strong Rhodes as possibilities. In the longer term I think that players like Pieter-Steph du Toit can come into the frame as well. Rhodes played at lock for the Stormers this year, but he is really a blind-side flank and Du Toit has a good enough skill-set to develop to play either at lock or no 7. Warren Whitteley and Jaco Kriel is also developing nicely and the former can also cover the number 8 position.
* The number 6 position is adequately covered by Louw and Marcel Coetzee.
* The locks is a serious problem at present. We should forget about the pap Bakkies Botha and non-physical Matfield - both are not a shadow of the great players they used to be five years ago. I am also seriously worried about the ill-discipline of Flip van der Merwe. The immediate answer is obviously Etzebeth and De Jager, while the future also lies with Du Tout and Willemse and in the longer run with Schckerling as well. Although Jaques du Plessis is being used as a number 7 at present - I think he is a better version of Alberts - but nevertheless a limited player - who should rather be utilized as a lock in future.
* I think it is time to start with the phasing out of Jannie du Plessis over the next six months. The up and coming young tight heads are in fact Malherbe, Marcel ban der Merwe and Esterhuizen with Oosthuizen as the Super- Sub in that position.
* Bismarck du Plessis and Strauss are the best and we have the up and coming Marx to bear in mind
* We are adequately covered at loosehead with Matawrire and can at present count on Nyakane and Van der Merwe of the Lions and ultimately Kitshoff to use at looshead.
What should the RC squad looks like
Backline players (13)
Le Roux, Lambie, Habana, Pietersen, Mvovo, Hendricks, De Allende, De Villiers, Serfontein, Goosen, Pollard, Du Preez, Reinach.
The following are strong additions in the case of injuries - Engelbrecht as a wing, Jordaan, Boshoff and Groom.
Experienced players = 6 players. Already Springboks = 4 playersNew selections = 3 players
Forwards (15)
Vermeulen, Louw, Labuschagne, Marcel Coetzee, Whiteley, Etzebeth, De Jager, Willemse, Jannie du Plessis, Malherbe, Marcel van der Merwe, Mtawarire, Nyakane, Bismarck and Strauss.
Experienced players = 8 players. Already Springboks = 3 playersNew selections = 4 players
The total squad will comprise of 14 experienced players, 7 players who gave already played for the Springboks and 7 new players - who can gradually move into the match day squad of 23 players.
