Last year I was pretty negative about our chances in the 4 big games of the year. They were all away games too.
We ended up winning 75% of them and did so in quite dominant style.
The conventional wisdom would dictate that since 3 of the 4 games against the ABs are in SA, the Boks should see the ABs off without too much trouble.
I know that not a single Bok fan here just read the above and felt comfortable with the "conventional wisdom". I don't either.
Mainly I'm worried about the AB ruck speed. If the Boks have had a weakness over the last few years it's that they've gotten flustered when teams came at them fast and cleared rucks quickly. The Eden Park game last year was the blueprint and I have a feeling that the ABs are gonna run out in Cape Town looking to hit rucks early and hard. I wouldn't be surprised to see them put a bit of extra effort into counter rucks, as they did successfully against Ireland, and the Boks at Eden Park.
I feel the ABs biggest risk factor is going to be injuries. If Love goes down, suddenly they'll look a lot like the ABs we've been beating over the last few years. What happens if Roigard gets injured? It's a long tour, they'll be playing so many games on the bounce, and on harder pitches than they're used to. It's going to be interesting to see their selections for the games against the franchise sides.
One feels that the Boks, playing less games, are less at risk of injuries, but also more able to replace anybody that takes a knock.
That first game in CT is going to be brutal. I'm very much doubting it's going to be pretty rugby and instead have much more of the feel of a knockout game because that'll be the one that will set the tone.
I'll make a big call and predict that Jasper will be man of the series. I honestly think he's the MVP at the moment. That rubbish that they used to say about DDA "Stop DDA and you stop the Boks"...I think if you replace DDA's name with Jasper's then that statement becomes a lot more true at the moment.
Not long now!
What are your thoughts?
