Too late for Big Bear

It will certainly be all about energy come Saturday.
Having played a monster of a game against the Chiefs, then travelling West for the best part of a day on Sunday/Monday, one can't help but wonder how the Saders will cope in the final. 
The Canes never threw the game away yesterday. They were out on their feet. They weren't the first and won't be the last to succumb to Lions up there where the air is thin. The difference between the first and second half was gas. Plain and simple. 
At some point teams will have to recognise that unless you are training at altitude you will often succumb to lesser teams that are.
To add to the nightmare, the Lions field relatively small loosies, one very mobile lock and a front row that slug long after the bell goes. Thus putting themselves even further ahead on energy stocks come the final 30. That's where they have been beating teAms for two years now.
Indeed it is too late for the Saders to book the team in at Big Bear for a three week camp. So what can they do?
Try to stop the game as often as possible for "injuries" would be plan A when it comes to stamina management. Take big slow breathes while the magic rub is applied to their oh so badly hurt teammate, and then play until the next stoppage. A target of two minutes out of every ten, adding in normal stoppages in the game, should see them with a decent amount of breathers. 
Altitude, tough game last week, jet lag and away from home. Any one of those is sufficient reason for a team to underperform. All four an we start talking underdog status.
If it rains on Saturday that will even things out a little but there ain't no chance of rain. Not that my garden woul d mind.
Obviously I'll be wanting the Leeus to win but if the Saders do pull it off I won't be too disappointed since I'll have witnessed something special.
Anything less than a 15 point half time lead and there will be a very concerned dressing room at half time for the Kiwi boys.
Can't bloody wait!

 I am not sure you are correct about the Hurricanes not being outplayed b3ecause of the travel factor.   The Hurricanes was questionable against the Brumbies as well - so they might have run out of steam insofar as the competition is concerned.
With rare exceptions the Crusaders have the same team they had last year which was badly beaten by the Lions.   The other problem is that after the Chiefs travelled to SA and back - a very trying situation to be in - the Crusaders struggled against them yesterday.  
I think the situation favours the Lions - but the match outcome is difficult to predict.       

Mike the same Canes team beat the Lions twice last year. 
Fair point about the Chiefs/Saders game though. If they are deteriorating, then the away game at altitude will just add to their woes. 
Indeed, anything can happen on the day. 
Kinda feels like the time is right for the Lions though. Not saying the Saders dont deserve it but the Lions certainly do. They amount of positive influence they had on the game. Where would SA rugby e ight now ithout them? It's scary really. The ridiculous amount of tries and other records they've broken. It would really be awesome for them if they won. 
Also a Lions win would have a knock on effect into the RC. It would be nice to see a competitive few Bok AB games this year. I'm sure the Kiwis would agree. Though after the epic Lions/ABs series I don't know how huge an affair it would have to be to compete with that.

 
Everyone claims it was the "thin air" that won it for the Lions.

That's a steaming pile of horse sh!t.

Why not give the actual Lions rugby team the credit for playing such great rugby?

Don't they deserve to be acknowledged for their efforts all season long ... and again this past Saturday? They came back from the dead and took it to a classy outfit ... out pointing them by 40pt to 7. 

We've turned Ellis Park into a fortress ... as it should be. It's become very difficult to beat us at home ... as it should be. We've beaten everyone else in their back yard.

The Lions topped the log for a reason. Not the Bulls who by the way also play their home matches at altitude. How well did they do? 

The Lions are in the final for a reason. Not the Bulls or anyone else ... and deserve to be there because of their skills on the park ... not the altitude or the thin air.

Give me a friggin break.

Why are you guys making such a big deal about the distance the Saders have to travel? Nothing is ever said when we have to travel down under to contest the play offs.

Stop looking for excuses for them. The Saders are a professional outfit. They've been around the park many times and could easily win the coming final.

The Lions deserve to be their opponents ... simply because they play an excellent brand of winning rugby.

 

 CC you know I have every appreciation for what the Lions have done. You won't find me taking an inch away from their achievements. In fact I back most of their players when others doubt them. 
Monster...been calling for him to be a Bok since before the 2016 Bok season.Whitley...When Strauss was picked I said it was a mistake and Whitely should get the job. Faf, Jantjies, JSVR, Coetzee, Redlinghuys, Marx, Akker, Combrink, Akkerman etc All guys I have consistently said should get green and gold. 
I was also one of the, if not the first here to talk about transplanting the Lions spirit into the Bok changing room.
I don't think anyone doubts my support for them or the fact that I thought no they deserve a ton of credit on various levels for what they've done.
BUT. A large part of what they have achieved is down to their fitness. Fitness which is hard gained at altitude but once attained grants you favour in the last 20. Still they deserve credit for this too because it's not like they drive up a mountain, then sit there and enjoy the view while they get fit. No, they graft their gatte off and probably don't even notice if it's sunshine or rain. And they deserve credit for understanding how to make the best of their geographical situation and then doing so excellently. 
So please don't get me wrong. They deserve every bit of credit for making it this far. Unlike the Bulls who train at similar altitude yet are no fitter than anyone else. 
It is however a fact that training at altitude is an advantage. It's not a new phenomenon. 
So it's fair to say that coming to Ellis Park is more of a challenge than going to Kings or Newlands. 
Anyway...cheer up. WE ARE IN THE FINAL...AT HOME!!!!!!!!!!!!! 
So awesome :)

 "The Canes never threw the game away yesterday. They were out on their feet. They weren't the first and won't be the last to succumb to Lions up there where the air is thin. (...)At some point teams will have to recognise that unless you are training at altitude you will often succumb to lesser teams that are."


For once, I agree with plum the plank,.... Lions are a "lesser" team that win thanks to being used to Jbg's altitude

 Look who's talking about planks!

When I constructed my prediction model Hal.....I had a parameter for travelling. I found travelling between NZ and SA was a negative of 6.7 points. It's a derived number so it could be out....but the model behaved quite well. So in the absence of an updated bigger study that's what I'm going with. .. Altitude reacts with travel.....probably also in the converted try range.....but you can't add the two. So a swag would be 10 for NZ travel to JHB, and about 6 for a South African coastal team. It's a real advantage. ... But it cuts the other way as well. The Lions game works best on hard fields....so when they play at a soft field like Newlands, they have to adjust. I remember as a boy of 12 going from J'Burg to CT, and feeling I was running in mud. .. It's all part of the competition, NZ had the advantage last year. What's interesting about altitude is the disproportionate effect on the second half, leaving one guessing if a NZ lead is big enough. Last week it clearly wasn't.

 Hal?
Care to share Moz?
Last year people were saying that teams needed at least a ten/fifteen possible margin going into half time. Now it appears that fifteen points isn't enough. 
Yet another reason why the Lions/Boks should do well this year. If the Boks play The ABs at Loftus or Ellis Park, my feeling is that we should load even more Lions into the team. Exactly because they won't loose anything synergy wise and will with every Lions addition strengthen that final twenty advantage. 
The questions is...Why have the Bulls not capitalised on altitude? How is it that it's taken the rugby world decades to understand something that is given as fact in other sports? 
If the Lions win tomorrow and then proceed to do well over the next few years, will they have shone light on yet another aspect of the game?
John Mitchell will probably implement similar fitness regimes at the Bulls and probably follow through with enforcing them. That should be interesting. Would nice to have two squads in SA as fit as the Lions. 
I have no doubt the Saders will take the lead early on Saturday. 

 @Basque I don't really care for people who only agree with things that suite their bias.
If the Lions were your team you'd never dream of giving an outside explanation for their doing well. The best you'd supply would be that "My team plans very well. We are part of a much bigger structure that also plans very well. And our players are just so skillful."
Blah blah blah.  
Sound familiar?

 Hal was a regression model I built about 10 years ago for the Southern test series.....using data from prior years. I can't recall all the causal variables I used.....but first week after trans ocean travel was one. The effect of altitude on stamina is an interesting subject.....witness the runners from Kenya. Another interesting data point is Chris Froome.....grew up in Kenya, but still seems to possess unusual stamina. Is this something one gains for life?