Tournament Predictor

The big four contenders

Ireland have never made it past the quarter-final stage at the Rugby World Cup, but surely this year that hoodoo will end.

So we now have Opta’s tournament predictor, which apparently takes into account thousands of data points, manipulated by a super computer.

What’s interesting is the very low number for Scotland. If true our chance of making the playoffs are very high …..the chance of losing to both Ireland and Scotland is about 50%x5 % or 2.5%. Leaving a 97.5 % chance of making the playoffs. 

After which the chance of winning is 97.5 % x 50%x85%x50% or 21%. Which accords with the computer number. The number I solved for is the odds of winning the semi….where we would likely play one of England, the Bargies or Australia. 

The computer has the odds of a win over these teams at about 85%, which strikes me as high. To me 70 to 75% seems more realistic, given the non quantifiable factors.

Still I think they’re about right that each of NZ, France and the Boks have a 20% chance. Ireland I’d put lower….perhaps  15%. But that won’t meaningfully change our odds.

The above analysis takes no cognisance of the role played by bent refs happy to receive kiwi largesse!

JW we have seen it all before. 

Wrong the Opta model takes account  of results, which incorporates whatever reffing bias exists. Even some of the reverse bias the Boks have enjoyed since Harrassmiss produced his disgusting tape.

Whoops on this particular occasion you happen to be wrong Beeno, that never seems to discourage you though and the odds are with you... surely you have to be right soon or later

A game can also still switch on the bounce of the ball. One tremendous kick instead pops-up and the opposition are instead on attack. 

Personally I think NZ will beat France and the Boks will beat Ireland and Scotland. That puts us up against France and that’s the game that concerns me. Win that one and we should be in the final given the weakness of the other pools.

I have a dreadful feeling that Manie will let us down with his kicking .... often

You’re fun at parties,  right?

Your fun at parties, right?

Me?

Credit is given when it is deserved: liberal societies have managed to turn into jobs activities other societies do not as those activities are based on nothing.

So this so  called predictor predicts nothing.

All four favourites are favourites anyone could give without trying.

The use of probabilities is improper. It is noticeable that it adds no information, the difference between each major contender is so small that all of them are equal from a probabilistic point of view.

For people believing in certainties, two of the four teams will be kicked out from the tournament, which means 40 pc of the so called probabilities are distributed over the rest.

How, certainly not in the following: if one of the four teams makes it to the final against one of the non four teamsn the one from the four will not rise to 80 pc chances of success.

The other team will benefit the most from the elimination of the three other major contenders.

Best case scenario for this con: two of the four teams make it to the finals. Worse case scenario: no teams.

Liberal societies have this good they push jobs that makes no sense, attach a mathematical model and that is good to go. A big factory to predict the past.

Good jobs.

And that is climate science models that are good.

Pitiful.

Am I not invited to this party then, Plum ?  

@ Becs, 

You and I can kaalvoet sokkie.

Saffex will have to seethe and cope.

Ha ha ha ! Ok, Xavi  

Thanks  

Oh I would never do such a heinous thing.