World Rugby’s third-ranked team visits number four in Brisbane next week. Both teams seem to be falling off a cliff, hanging on by fingertips, one kicking and screaming, the other regurgitating stale clichés about growing and learning.
This old rivalry has been ruled by home-field advantage over the years. The Wallabies usually beat the Springboks in Australia (an all-time 23 wins to 12 in Australia, with one draw).
Suncorp’s pristine track has typically been barren ground for the visiting Boks. In the last five Test matches in Brisbane, the Wallabies have won four. In 2006, Suncorp witnessed the Boks battered 49-0. So, this is good soil for a comeback by Michael Cheika and his beleaguered boys?
The 2013 exception was one of Heyneke Meyer’s best moments: a 38-12 hoodoo-shattering win by the (then) offensive Bok juggernaut. The Boks left that game unbeaten (four from four), heading to Auckland for what came to be the great Bismarck-sank-Carter episode, while there the Wallabies were still winless in that year’s Rugby Championship.
Basically, the home side bounced from ruck to ruck without a sign of knowing how to find a gap, Morne Steyn outdueled Quade Cooper in the battle for field position, and Meyer used a battering ram 342kg loose trio of Francois Louw, Willem Alberts and Duane Vermeulen.
Ewan McKenzie’s big loss was avenged in July of last year with a try after the hooter by Tevita Kuridrani to give Michael Cheika’s side a crucial 24-20 win. Stephen Moore’s decision to go for the corner was hailed as a brave call. In the Republic, the narrative was “we gave them two chances to beat us and they took the second.”
Back then, Michael Hooper got the start over David Pocock, pre-‘Pooper.’ Early in the match, the Boks waged a war of attrition that seemed to be working as of 47:00, as Jesse Kriel scored a converted try to put the visitors up 20-6. A powerful scrum and a try by Eben Etzebeth staked South Africa to a lead. Cheika’s choice of the Cooper-Genia combo over Foley-Phipps was the big news leading into that game.
This year, both teams limp into Suncorp. Both have decent arguments for that coveted underdog status.
Cheika seems fond of the “us versus the world” technique of motivation. Perfecting the “our backs are up against the wall” theme as a coach is an art. Cheika’s five straight losses give him ammunition to work with as he attempts to inspire his troops.
But perhaps he has been too wild in his punches. He has taken swings at a French referee’s rudeness, the entire fraternity of referees, former Wallabies’ critiques, himself, his only proven lineout lock, New Zealand’s security sensibilities, and of course, the scapegoat of all leaders everywhere, the media. His defence of captain Stephen Moore comes off like a helicopter mum, trying to shame teachers into forcing the cool kids to play with her socially awkward son.
But he can definitely make a plausible argument for underdog status, no matter what Queensland bookies offer. The Wallaby lineout is abysmal, and faces a Bok lineout with five jumpers, and the best and second best lineout thieves in 2016 Super Rugby. Worse, there is no certainty as to the identity of the Wallaby locks, in order to hone their throw-and-catch this week, when it might actually make a difference.
Scott Fardy has played too much rugby and bless his soul, he knows no moderation. He will come hard at the Boks; but I think he needs time off to eat a hamburger every three hours and rest. His teammate Pocock’s 15 carries against the All Blacks looked like 14 too many, given his 15 tackles and five misses, leading to 0 turnovers won in the second Bledisloe.
Australia has simply had to tackle too much. Eleven Wallabies made ten or more tackles in the Bledisloes, with an astonishing 67 misses in total. If Cheika’s game plan results in double-digit tackle attempts by Bernard Foley and Dane Haylett-Perry on hard-running Boks like Warren Whiteley, Damian de Allende, Eben Etzebeth, and Pieter-Steph du Toit, it will be a long night in Brisbane for the home fans.
The ‘spine’ of the Wallabies (Moore-Douglas-Pocock-Genia-Cooper-Folau) has not looked healthy in the lumbar area; the only bright spots have been in the cervical area: the world-class Israel Folau. Perhaps also Will Genia, who even looked good up against Aaron Smith.
But Allister Coetzee is not sailing along the trade winds with supermodels on deck and a bottle of champagne. From his first Test, he’s been drowning, gasping, almost surviving, and never in charge. Every match has seemed to come down to one or two moments of luck or failure.
