The Boks and NZ played very evenly two months ago. Both tests were decided in the last seconds and no team really dominated. South Africa’s power packs ( we virtually play 2 of them) had the wood on NZ. They had a hard time in the scrums and the Bok maul was a constant threat.
But despite the plethora of good ball, our backs couldn’t take advantage. So NZ via the brilliance of Barrett was able to live off scraps and come within one stupid decision of sweeping the series. It was an arm wrestle.
The matches against Oz weren’t. We were well beaten. Oz cleverly neutralized our pack with their athletic locks and Kerevi dominated the midfield. Not much has been said about those losses, basically because we haven’t figured them out. The Aussie team touring the NH is a much easier challenge, showing just how thin their resources are. But with their best on the park they can live with the Boks.
Nor was the Irish/NZ match an arm wrestle. NZ was clearly outplayed in most facets of the game, except perhaps the scrums. Which is where the Boks would have done better. Our scrum currently is almost unstoppable. We would have put the wood the Ireland up front. And for most of history so would NZ.
SH teams beat NH teams via sheer physicality. That’s how we beat Wales and Scotland who were more dangerous ball in hand. In the end the fact that the Scottish tighthead imploded determined much of this game. The difference between our line speed in defence and that of Scotland was also stark. We had 5 metres of space, the Scottish centres got man and ball.
So for NZ something has changed. If they can’t beat the best NH teams up front things become less automatic, and the role of Barrett becomes pivotal. I don’t think Mo’unga is going to win those tests for them. Their centres also look sub par….but a Smith/Barrett combination may disguise that weakness. It’s going to be an interesting few years for NZ.
For South Africa….a Bok/Irish confrontation or a Bok/Oz confrontation remains much the same proposition. Destroy them up front. But to the degree teams like Ireland get closer to parity up front our bankruptcy in the backs except for turnover ball, will become an issue.
The annoying thing is it doesn’t have to be that way….we have big skilled backs who could use all that great ball with a bit of encouragement. We have a unique opportunity with this rare weak period in NZ rugby and no other side that has shown consistency at the top level, albeit Oz and Ireland have the capacity.
So will we grow as a team and add simple things like the offload to our armory or is the plan to box kick our way through to the next WC? The risk of that safety first course is we meet a team like Oz who on the day can neutralize that game and there is no practiced alternative. Whereas with our quality of ball a competitive backline should be able to put the issue beyond doubt.
When we were in the doldrums a few years ago I made the point that a return to our traditional values of dominant set pieces and a weaponised defence would turn around our fortunes. That’s happened under Harrassmiss…frankly it was easy . But if we don’t add to our skill set a unique opportunity to be the undisputed number one in rugby will be lost.


