What will happen in Round 6

I think that members are fairly clear about their choices this coming round if one looks at their choices in the Total Rankers this weekend:-

Blues - Highlanders game

Highlanders to win  -     5

Blues to win           -      3

Hurricanes -  Stormers  game   

Hurricanes to win   -      9

Stormers to win     -      1

Waratahs - Crusaders game

Crusaders to win    -     11

Waratahs to win     -      0

Sunwolves - Lions game

Lions to win           -     11

Sunwolves to win   -      1

Bulls -  Chiefs game

Bulls to win            -      5

Chiefs to win          -      1

Sharks - Rebels game

Sharks to win         -      6

Rebels to win         -       1

Brumbies - Reds game

Brumbies to win     -      0

Reds                        -      0

I gave the above to see where members do not expect upset results - but is upsets possible in Round 6.  Taking into account the games and the choices above, as well as the performances of the teems involved thus far in the competition and found the following:-

Blues        winning     -    50%

Stormers winning        -    50%

Waratahs winning        -    10%

Sunwolves winning      -    20% 

Chiefs winning            -     10%

Rebels winning           -     30%

Reds winning              -     40%

So the chances of the Crussaders, Lions and Bulls losing ae minimal, but there are very real possibility of upsets in the remainder of the games are relatively high.

Please ensure that the remainder of the members providing their choices as a matter of ugency.

When did you collate this data Mike?

I make it 4 votes for the Highlanders to 3 for the Blues and Brycy and I  both voted days ago.

Sorry - figures updated 

I do not know how I left the Highlanders out 0 for some reason or aniother I thought the selections were for the Brumbies,     Based on their performances thus far - I think they would be very, very lucky to beat the Blues.   And so would the Hurricanes be.     

There are three upsets that would cause problems for most members, namely -

*   the Crusaders

*   the Lions 

*   the Hurricanes

I think there is not the remotest chance that the Crusaders could lose or even draw the match.

 The problem is that the Lions may not do as well as we may think.   Playing in Singapore is not easy and may result in problems for the Lions,

I did not touch the above matches with a barge pole because performances of the teams involved indicates clearly that the an upset was highly unlikely,   I studied the Hurruicaanes and the Stormers carefully and looked at the results achieved by both and decided to go outside of the norm for the following reasons:-

*    The Hurricanes won one game against the Brumbies convincingly and with ease - they struggled in all other games and  managed to win narrowly  in two games = drew against the Chiefs - lost badly against the Crusaders,    That was not a very  convincing record this year and in watching their games it became clear that their Tight 5 is too weak to contain better forwards,  Their strength lies in their backline - but one of their best backline players is not playing.

*    The Stormers started off very badly - but since then they have been steadily improving.  The game against the Jaguares (Argentina) was a really good indication that they are improving,   Their strength are amongst their forwards where they can get the upper hand - which could cause problems for the Hurricanes backline getting poor balls.

My only negative is the record of Glen Jackson as a referee,   He has a bad record insofar as determining the outcome of Super Rugby games are concerned,   A few years ago he reffed a game between the  Hurricanes and Stormers in Wellington and was severely criticized after the match,   He appeared on the . NZ Rugby program on TV,   They showed Jackson two incidents in the relevant  game and asked him about his interpretation  of the instances that led to Hurricanes tries,  Jackson became very embarrassed and  muttered something about he made mistakes,  Last year he was sent to ref games in SA.   After buggering up badly in both games in Pretoria and Durban  he was recalled to New Zealand  and did not return too SA.   In the Pretoria test he gave a penalty in the last minute to the Highlanders which got them   to win the game - but analysis indicated that there was no transgression of any rule at all.   In the Durban game he gave a number of rulings nobody could understand,   It was apparent that Sanzaar was not happy with what happened and recalled him forthwith,   All in all the ref could hand the Hurricanes a win - so watch out for that as well.            

As I stated I warned you guys to not back the highlanders based on my performance assessment thus far in Super Rugby.   Congrats to the  guys who backed the Blues to win - especially Clo udy

I told you the Blues would win .......

BB

I wrot extensively about the Highlanders and why I thought they would lose.  And they should have won by more than they did.   Four tries against two is for me an indication that things are not an indication that the win went to the right team.   Piy that the Blues uised such a piss pot p\layer at flyhalf - h cost them at least 7 points and missed 8 points in goal kicks.

Watch out for my next worning.  The Huricanes will have to have massive help from the ref to beat the Stormers,   The Blues Tight 5 struggled against the Highlanders and the Huricanes didi the same.   They had one good game this year (against the Brumbies).   In all their other games they struggled too win and that draw against the Chiefs tells me a lot.  

By the way only 20% of the Superbru participants said the Blues would win - so they regard it as an upset.