IMO the real favourites are only 2: New Zealand and Ireland. I would include England also but only because of their home advantage.
France have been very lucky in previous tournaments but luck doesn't last forever. PSA destroyed the traditional french expansive game and has not been able to establish an alternative gameplan. They now play trying to impose their forward pack's phisicallity but they lack structure. France won't beat Ireland and therefore they will have to play the AB in QF where they'll be easily beaten.
Wales lack depth and they have had too many injuries in the backline, Jonhatan Davies, Webb, Halfpenny and even one of the substitutes, Walker.
Australia have too many weak points. To begin with their captain. Moore is too impulsive, during the RC he was involved in every quarrel and he was constantly complaining to the refs which ended up irritating the refs, the worst thing a captain can do.
They don't have a established 9-10 pair and hardly will establish one for the WC. Genia and Foley have been out of form for the whole season, Nick Phipps don't know passing (which is the main task of a scrumie) and Toomua doesn't know kicking (his last game against the AB was disastrous) and then we have Cooper able of the best and the worst but who use to reserve the worst for the important matches.
Neither they have a established loose trio. Their best 2 backrowers play openside and is not yet clear if they are going to play both or not. it seems that Hooper and Poc0ck are going to play together which is not a very good idea IMO but they don't have many other alternatives, Palu is not phisically up to test level and McCalman is a good SR player but has yet to prove he's a good test level nº8.
Their backline is one of the bests of the tournament and Folau will very probably be disputing the best player and most tries awards but their forward pack, in spite of the evident improvement with Mario Ledesma, will still lack grunt and won't be enough to hold the English pack. which has the edge over the aussies over the last years.
And South Africa have weak points all over the team. Their coach is way too conservative and his building of the team the last 4 years has been IMO disastrous. His bet for the old guard has been so unconditional that he has not develope the needed back-ups.
They lack a established 9-10 pair. After playing the whole last year with Pollard, the coach now realised that he's too green and out of form and opts for Lambie who has very little experience and most of his caps are from the bench, besides he used to crack down under pressure.
FdP is a puzzle but it's very doubtful that he can play the whole tournament at a high level, may be some matches but not the whole. Pienaar is now very average and Paige went unnoticed at SR level, let alone at test level.
Matfield is not phisycally up to test standard, Alberts has not played for the whole season and was already too slow with a very low workrate, JdV comes from a year-long injury and with his age a lot more of gametime is needed to get the form (it took almost a year to Carter), the outside backs (Le Roux, Kirchner, Mvovo) are too weak defensively,......... too many weak pointys to win a WC.
My prediction for the WC final is New Zealand-Ireland with England also very near and with chances of displacing I reland from it.
Pro2,549 posts
17 Sept 2015, 12:20
#1
17 Sept 2015, 12:20#1


