Why a NZ team will win the Super 15 title

Chiefs' consistency
Don't read too much into the Chiefs' set piece struggles in last weekend's heavyweight clash against the Crusaders. Their lineout will improve and the addition of lock Craig Clarke will help in this area after his late withdrawal at Waikato Stadium. ( Wholesale changes to the Chiefs this week ......

Prop Toby Smith, hooker Hika Elliot and loose forwards Tanerau Latimer and Kane Thompson also come into the pack.

In the backs, Lelia Masaga is back on the right wing and Jackson Willison returns at centre.

Andrew Horrell moves to fullback and Robbie Robinson switches to the wing.

Their scrum has been surprisingly good, as has their defence. They have lost only three matches this season - one more than the Stormers - but their overall game is much better than that of the South Africans.

Their chances will be lifted further if they qualify for a home final by earning a bonus point win against the Hurricanes this weekend. Home advantage is everything in the playoffs. Only one side, the Bulls in 2007, has won a final away from home since the Crusaders did their three-peat on the road from 1998-2000. In Aaron Cruden and Sonny Bill Williams they have two quality inside backs. They have every chance of going all the way this year.

Crusaders' pedigree
They have the record - seven titles - and the firepower, but have lacked a little of what has made the Chiefs so successful this season - consistency. Having so many All Blacks is a double-edged sword. The Crusaders began slowly after the highs of the World Cup - sneaking home against the Blues and then losing to the Highlanders and Chiefs - and the recent test break also hurt them.

They should have accounted for the Hurricanes in Christchurch but were off the pace. They are often guilty of not performing when they are clear favourites - their loss to the Rebels in Melbourne was a shocker but spurred them to big home wins over the Blues and Highlanders. They must treat the Force with respect this weekend. A win will make them the top wildcard team and they'll fancy their chances of winning their first title since 2008, travel be damned.

Stormers' lack of attack
They are the team with the best defence but with one of the worst attacking records. They simply struggle to score tries - it took a late touchdown from wing Gio Aplon to beat the Cheetahs last weekend with a familiar narrow scoreline (13-6). They have scored only 324 points - only the lowly Force and Lions have scored fewer. However, the other side of the ledger shows why they are second on the table - 233 points scored against. Defence wins big matches which is why the Stormers are in with a decent shout, but the Crusaders won't fear them too much if they have to travel to Cape Town - they beat them there twice last season, including a comfortable 29-10 victory in their semifinal. The Bulls and Sharks remain in the mix but are too inconsistent, especially away from home.

Hurricane warning
Mark Hammett's team could still play a big part in this competition. A victory, and other results going their way, would propel them into the play-offs and from there anything can happen. Their major weakness is their set piece which, although they shook off a scrum pounding to beat the Crusaders, is guaranteed to be exposed in the finals. Halfback TJ Perenara's injury is also a massive blow.

An important point you have omitted is that  nz will only have Steve Walsh as a ref in the playoffs. With BL and some other nz plonks out your chances nosedive. Bwahahahahahhaha

Also brycy when we played the crustacians in Cape Town we had some key players out. Unfortunately we are in a similar postion this year although there is talk of Vermulen being back. Just be thankful Schalk Burger and Koster will not be available - or so we hear. So you will not face the might of a full Stormers pack which would blow the wee chiefies away as anyone with even half a brain cell would realise.

brycy you do know we have a better points diferential than the Chiefs?

Dream on brycy, dream on!

Brycy

I am not sure of the outcome of the last games of the round robin games this weekend.   What I do know is that only the teams at present no' 3 ( The brumbies) will be in the play-offs.     If the Chiefs manage to beat the Hurricanes and score 4 tries in the process - they will be no 1 on the log.      If they win and only get 4 points - and the Stormers win and score 4 tries - they will be number 2.   If they lose - they will be no 2 if the Stormers manage to win.    That is the only potential change in positions 1, 2 and 3.

I think that the Crusdaers and Bulls shall be in positions 4 and 5 respectively -  only position 6 on the log is in question.     I think that the Hurricans it is a must  win situation and to have a chance they will have to score 4 tries.    Anythuing less would be insufficient.     The Reds is in a similar position to the Hurricanes - so I think the favourites for that spot would be the Sharks.     That would mean that New Zealand would have only one team in the play-offs, South Africa 2 and the Aussies 1..   

The play-off situation would then be as follows:-

The Brumbies vs the Sharks in Canberra

The Crusaders vs the Bulls in Christchurch.

The first game is a toss-up.   The Sharks has played very good rugby recently - but buggered up against the Lions.     I would give them a real chance to beat the Brumbies in the play-offs - they beat the Brumbies in the round robin game.     I think the Crusaders will beat the Bulls in the other game.

If the Stormers manage a five pointer in the game this weelkend and the Chiefs beat the Hurricans and not score four tries - they will end up seond on the log.    That means the following scenario.

The Sharks in Hamiton against the Chiefs

The Crusaders in Cape Town against the Stormers

Both games are toss-ups.    The Sharks can beat the Chiefs - even away - they have the firepower to do just that.    The Crusaders struggled against a injury-ridden Stormers team in Christchurch and the Stormers will be near to a full team in the play-offs.    The game being in Cape Town will be much harder for the Crusaders.     

Do not read too much into the attacking play of the Stormers.   The opposing teams generally transgressed whilst the Stormers were attacking - thinking that they can prevent the scoring of tries that way.   The strategy did not prevent the Stormers from winning their games.   All season long they lost two games and even though they did not score enough tries -  in the end they won more games than any of the other teams in Super 15.   On the day they can beat any team.     Their prirotiy has been defence and the fact is that all the other teams scored less points against the Stormers.   As a result - the average  points scoored against them is more than 120 points difference scored against all other teams.    That indeed is a massive difference.     Any team playing against them  in Cape Town will have serious problems.   

I would get more clarity once the games this weekend and the play-offs have been decided - espeially the games involving the Chiefs and the Stormers ones.   That will determine the venues of the semi-finals.   If the Stormers end up on top of the log - they would have home town advantage in the finals as well.   A hard place for any New Zealand team to beat them this year.

Although I think that the New Zealand teams have a good chance in the Finals - I would not predict any of them winning.    Matter of fact - I think chances are that the Chiefs may end up having to play the Crusaders in the semmis and that could mean problems for the Chiefs and put them out of the finals completely.

In any event - it is too early to make any predictions - so lets not get theoretical about issues.    There are far too many possibilities as to the play-offs and the semis to get into a discussion as to who would win the Super 15 this year.     All I can say is that the same thing that happened in the Junior WC can happen in Super 15.    Brycy did you not predict a Junior AB win in that case - with huge bravado????????? .

 Huricanes are average so we can rule them out right now. 

Crusaders are not the same team since Robbie Dean left. 

The Chiefs have played well this season- although the forwards can be taken. The backs are great although the forwards are average. 

If 3 teams make the top 6, then it is 2 new zealand team + 1 OZ team.

Crusaders at home- in a play off is very likely they will win.

brumbies at home- can be beaten- a full strength sharks team can do it- again.

Stormers - do have an issue with the backline attack- but they have lost the fewest games because they are better than the opposition. What other criteria is winning.

The bulls- have falled apart towards the end of the season. However at least they are going to make it into the play offs with a younger team after all the departures

Write the Kiwis off at your peril Sharkbok. Potentially all three Kiwi teams in the playoffs now so very good result tonight from a NZ perspective. Home ground advantage maybe lost to the Chiefs but it did'nt help them against the Crusaders anyway. Looking more likely a NZ team will win the Super 15 title simply given their strength of numbers, depth of talent and especially seeing there is no real opposition coming from the Arstralians or SA. As good as in the bag my friends.

Brycy

You better do your arithmetics again.  The Chiefs and Stormers are not going to be in the play-offs and the Crusdaers - if they manage a win - shall be.   However, despite the win thi mornng - they are likely to be out of it - unless two of the Bulls, the Reds and the Sharks lose their games.   The chances of that happening is remote.  The only chance the Reds would have is to win with a bonus point - in which event one of the Sharks or Bulls - despite a win would be out.   Any loss by two of the three teams mentioned would mean that the Hurricanes could get in - but that is very unlikely - if all three teams win without bonus points - the Reds and the Hurricans will be out of contention.

Brycy - your remark about certainty in winning - was that not similar to the one made by you in the case of the Junior WC???   Beware of making statements like you did above - there is many a slip between the cup and the lip.    There is only one new Zealand team certain of a place in the semis and that is the Chiefs.   If the Stormers win tomorrow and the forecast is as outlined by me elsewhere - it is very likely that the Chiefs will have to play the Crusaders  in the semi - so only one BNew Zealand team would be plaing in the final and not two - as forecasted by you and Sitting Bull.   If that final is at Newlands - they will have a really serious problem on their hands.    .  

I may get tarred and feathered for saying this, but I can see the Chiefs or Crusader winning it. I don't see this hapenning as easily as good ol Brycy, but Imo, They both have a very strong chance. If the three SA teams make it, with the Brumbies, the Stormers are really the only team I see taking the Chiefs, or Crusaders down.

So the odds of a Kiwi team winning it are good. But those are only odds, and that's why you play the games. Look at what hapenned last night with the 'Canes. Anything can happen.

Brycy- You must be joking? 

You said "no real opposition coming from the Arstralians or SA"

Am I crazy or is a South African team who has just won the league.

The play offs are still to come but if this was like many sports tournaments the league would have allready been complete and awared to the Stormers for the top team in the 2012 Super15. (Most wins)

South African will most likely provide 3 of the top 6 for the finals.

With Australia and NewZealand fighting it out for  the remaining places

Congragulations on finishing 2nd in the league, and hopefully you can get lucky in the play offs which require less consistency.

The Stormers have won by finishing first. This South African team has dominated through consistenly being the superior team. 

I also believe that the Sharks are very capable of beating the Chiefs in NewZealand. The Chiefs Forwards are not that great. It also looks like teams are starting to work them out as well. If the Sharks excert their forward physical superiority- it could be a quick end to the Chiefs Revival- especially with money bill on his way out

Flying over from NZ and playing a match has the same effect as a 8 point penalty. The Chiefs don't strike me as being that good.

 Crusaders were a different team last year ....... if Stormers get #1 seed, Etzebeth and Vermeulen make it back they will win out.

Chiefs forward pack were exposed by the Canes, who themselves dont have the best pack but who played with with a lot of heart and urgency. I think the Chiefies will be a lot more vulnerable in the semis and I doubt they possess the BMT required at the business end of this competeition. So, for me, I say the Crusties are the Kiwis best hopes, but the Stormers are my favourites to take the championship.

....haha Mozart... Mighty Chiefs thrashed all the yarpie teams last time they visited your neck of the woods...correct sitting bull if he's wrong....