Why the Springboks will lose the test on Saturday

There has already been much debate on the issue of the test on Saturday and I have been saying clearly that we have no chance to beat the AB's next week.   This let to some severe criticism by some members and I feel I must give reasons for this doomsday forecast  of mine.

Let me be more explicit and deal with the reasons for my gloomy prediction.  Basically the problem is that we are going into this coming test with the same  forwards who played in the Soweto test last year and they were beaten badly by the AB's in that Department last year and will be beaten again this year because there are no sign that the forwards have improved since last year - in fact the contrary is in fact in evidence.

Back Row deficiencies 

The performance of the back row has been dealt with repeatedly - and what can be expected is best summed up by the following stats from the Soweto test last year:-

F

Louw

0/0

0

0/4/4

0

0

0

0

0

5/2

0/0

0

0/0

F

Alberts

0/0

0

0/1/4

5

0

0

1

0

1/0

2/0

0

0/0

N8

Vermeulen

0/0

0

0/4/1

0

0

0

0

1

6/0

3/0

0

0/0

If the above were not under-performance on a bad scale - heaven knows what under-performance in fact is.   When all three loosie combined make 12 tackles - missing two - it puts things into context.   On his own one of the AB loosies made more tackles than the three SA loosies did combined.

Did the SA loosies improve since last year - there is no real evidence that they did - and the problem remains the immobility of the loosies.   The fact was emphasized that they in fact has gone backwards in some aspects of the game since last year.   Maybe because they did so little in the test in Soweto last year - there was no penalties awarded against them - yesterday they conbined got five penalties against them - in fact it was six since the clumsy Alberts was in the way of Strauss when he started a attack ad became an obstacle which resulted in a further penalty.  

The other issue is that they now try more ball carries - but there is no support for ball carriers and the carries often result in penalties - in this case the immobility issue is also part of the problem. 

In general their tackle count still remain problematic and their involvement in line out play is very poor.  Ball carries on average gain very little ground and often enough result in penalties.

The Lock Situation

If it is by now not clear that we have a problem with both Kruger and Van der Merwe as partners for Etzebeth -  it never will be clear.   Both are seriously defective in line out play and especially Kruger lacks grunt.   Van der Merwe is a serious liability from a disciplinary perspective.   There is a faint hope that Meyer would bring Du Toit into the starting line-up - but I think that will remain a faint hope.

Props

 From a scrumming perspective yesterday was a disaster - and what can be expected on Saturday?   Jannie has been poor all season long and nothing is going to change that on Saturday.    

The flyhalf situation

We have potentially an excellent backline for attacking rugby - but that is nullified by Morne Steyn - sad to say.   He was poor now in three tests in a row.   His only asset remains his kicking at goal - for the rest he is a liability since both his passing and kicking game is sub-par.   Meyer would never change him - so our backline will keep on malfunctioning.

I HEREBY CHALLENGE MOZART TO PROVE ME WRONG AS TO THE ABOVE ISSUES BY DEALING SPECIFICALLY WITH THE POINTS RAISED BY ME  - DEALING ON A FACTUAL BASIS WITH EACH ISSUE

One thing Im certain of, is Meyer will never be changing his flyhalf.  Morne is his man.

I don't actually think he's a bad player,  yeah I think sometimes his kicking game should have more purpose rather than kick and hope, though what are you to do in your own half? Risk running or put a bomb up and hope the opposition make a mistake?  Would have more faith in your team, they did well against the Wallabies... ok the ozzies were abysmal but still.

x2 sorry.

I hope both teams lift their game - but it is normally the All Blacks who succeed in doing that better.

Let me be quite frank - I will shout for a Springbok victory - but that does not seem possible given the deficiencies in the Springbok team selected by Meyer.

 not so clever mike, i notice you just laugh off the yellow cards yr team recieves but our yellow cards should be lengthy suspensions. Please mate a little bit more consistency is needed if you want to retain yr credibility thanks.

But you are wise to fear the worst with the wee boks about to be smoked like fresh fish next week. Some of yr fans are trying to put some sugar on those fish which is good if you've ever tried smoked fish. It's one of our favourites here in NZ. 

Looking forward to dining out at SA expense next week.

 Ceradyne

Sorry - I copied and paste the stats from ESPN and you are lying again.  How can a copy and paste change figure - you blithering idiot.  Did you not notice it is a copy and paste - why try and mislead the members?

You are as per normal incapable of interpreting anything - so your argument fell flat on its face - once again.  Liar, Liar - your pants are on fire.

Mozart

How can the stats on ESPN be out of date - and you apparently fall for Ceradyne"s distortions hook, line and sinker.   In that year Jannie's performance went backwards and the rest remained the same if not going backwards as well.   The only rel improver is Etzebeth

On Saturday our scrumming was not up to standard and so was our line out performances.   But stick to the discussion and prove me wrong by fact and not by fiction and personal attacks.  

Because you keep on harping on Lambie's  so-called poor prformances in Super 15 - I checked the stats for the first 8 games in Supr 15 and in respect of the following his stats were better than Morne:-

*   Line breaks made

*   Defenders beaten

His successful kicks at goal was 75% - Morne's was 80%.    Since Morne never attacks the gain line and often cover kicked balls - run with the balls  a number of meters and then kick it - his running superiority is a myth and of no real value.

Be it as it may - Lambie was not as bad as you keep on trumpeting.   Morne is not an attacking flyhalf and never has been. 

By the way - how many kicks Morne made yesterday was aimless and useless and did he miss the line twice when trying to kick penalties or not?   If I am perdekak for talking the truth - what are you for talking bullshit?  

 Too funny Bean Brain. You keep trying to shoot mike the messenger but what lousy shots you all are.

You'd be wiser to be like Mike and write the Boks completely off as that would make them far more dangerous.

Beeno

There was a slight improvement in that we did draw with the Pumas this year - but beat them rather unconvincingly.   The Aussies are poor this year - and they have been beaten by all and sundry - so that is no real achievement to beat them.   In Pretoria last year we had a much more convincing win against the Wallabies than we had in Cape Town yesterday.   However, if we beat the All Blacks on Saturday it would represent an improvement - so lets wait and see whether the impossible can happen. 

If we lose again - which I frankly and regretfully expect to happen -  I will be right - no real growth has happened this year.   Matter of fact some of the older players are going downhill and Alberts got fatter than he already is - he is now heavier and slower than our props.  

Ceradyne

Balls - I took this one directly from the ESPN website on this year (including the Aviva competition) as reflected on the ESPN website.   Google it and you will find it.   I do not know why ESPN stats would be different on two different ESPN sites - so I still think you are lying.

Trust the POMS to try and mislead everyone.

Mozart

You are a bloody fool and that is clear.   Is Jannie better than he was last year?   Definitely not.   Is the loosies better than they were last year?   No difference - but in some respects they actually went backwards - yesterday's 6 penalties definitely was the worst of all stats on past loosie combinations in any given test - add a yellow card to that one as well.   Etzebeth improved with experience.   Strauss is always tops and there was no change in respect of the other lock - still the same.    I think that Beast remains acceptable.

On the whole - the forwards did not really show any improvement at all - and you are again reverting to personal insults as a means of argument.   Won't help at all.

Now lets be reasonable and see who is right.   I say that the same pack - with the possible change of Bismarck for Strauss, will meet with the All Blacks on Saturday.   If they perform better than last year I am wrong - if they don't you are wrong. 

Pretty sure I am going to win that one.          

Ceradybe

Balls - I have only used ESPN stats and normally take into account the  Test Rugby stats - there is very little difference between those two data bases.   Mozart had to correct you - Kolisis was injured and did not play in the test off the bench - so you were talking tripe  as per normal.  Now you jump to another data-base.   Am quite happy with the one normally used by Mozart and me. 

You are the one who would want the item to disappear f rom this site - brainless idiot at best 

Ceradybe

Balls - I have only used ESPN stats and normally take into account the  Test Rugby stats - there is very little difference between those two data bases.   Mozart had to correct you - Kolisi was injured and did not play in the test off the bench - so you were talking tripe  as per normal.  Now you jump to another data-base.   Am quite happy with the one normally used by Mozart and me. 

You are the one who would want the item to disappear from this site - brainless idiot at best 

Mozart

And you missed 2 tackles made by Thompson - so the total tackle count for the AB loosies was 34 and the Boks 15.   Why was the count so low - because the Bok loosies was always to late to get near the play - their immobility is notorious.   So combined 4 SA loosies made 15 tackles against the 34 made by the AB loosies.   Still less than 50% than the AB loosies made and still less than what is normally expected by any decent back row co mbination in tests.

Dominated possession - what a farce - we had about 52% possession in the game and that does  not represent what you call domination.   The reason for the less than satisfactory performance in tackling is entirely due to the immobility of the Springbok loosies and their inability to get around the field of play fast enough.  Capice? 

Ok  - lets go to the test yesterday.   The Aussie loosies made 43 tackle missing 1 - our loosies made 24 missing 3.   Same tendency all over again.   Same problem - slow loosies - low tackle count. 

Mozart

I never said size as an impediment -  I said lack of speed is. Don't you know that mobility refer to speed - not size?

Although Etzebeth is definitely big compared to the loosies - he is faster than them in speed.   Alberts is the slowest of the three - his speed is even slower than the props - followed by Vermeulen and thirdly Louw - who is also slower than Etzebeth.

Just for your info -  Alberts is 6'4" and he weighs 120 kgs.   He is built like a prop and his weight and built reduces his speed drastically.   If he was the athletic type normally associated with loosies - which he is not - at that weight he would be carrying a lot of fat.   However - on account of the fact that he has the built like a prop with drastically reduced speed he cannot be considered as fat.  

Duane Vermeulen has a similar problem - he is also 6'4"  weighing in at 116 kgs.   Also tend to be like a prop - but definitely slightly speedier than Alberts

The athletic playing weight of loosies of that size is normally between 100 kgs and 108 kgs.  Anything above that is a definite impediment insofar as speed is concerned - any medical practitioner will tell you that.

Although you criticized Plumtree severely because of what he says about Francois Steyn.  He was definitely right about the weight-height ratio of players of 6'4".   He said Francois Steyn was 118kgs and that affected his game negatively - his problem was he was fat and that reduced his speed drastically.  He went on to say his targeted weight should be between 105 and 106 kgs.  However, Francois Steyn is not built like a prop (like both Alberts and Vermeulen are) - and at the right weight indicated by Plumtree. he would be more athletic and speedier.

Physically both Vermeulen and Alberts are actually built like props - that is why I said they are props masquerading as loosies.   They definitely are not speedy enough to be good all round loosies and if you want loosies only to execute a low percentage of the normal functions of loosies - by all means you are welcome to them.    

Don't be so sure to write off the boks - the kiwis lack physicality and their scrum smashed by argies. This is clearly an area of weakness. The saffas and argies are the dominate forwards in the comp and new scrum laws helping with their advantage.

I think saffas should be able to win the forward battle and IF the refs can keep out of the game they are a high probability of taking the AIGs on this one.

The saffa forwards were good with the exception of a heap of foul play but one comes to expect that from a saffa team - just make sure you don't hold back on the AIGs - just don't be so incredibly blatant..............................................

 Its the superb ausie skipper of the VICTORIOUS Americas cup team that dominated your choking countrymen..... 8-1 up and STILL LOST.... ahahahahahahah

re Wobs - just rebuilding after drongo deans screwed with the team for the last 5years..... what do you expect......??

AIGs should be able to beat the argies but the fact remains that the AIGs forwards were dominated... boks got bigger tougher forwards than argies so point remains - IF they can keep the foul play to a subtle level then they should be able to beat the AIGs this weekend.

 I think you'll find the answer to both comments is this: ....CARE FACTOR....

Obviously kiwis CARE a lot about sailing and rugby - both of which they are good at but seem to CHOKE on the big stage....

If your argument belittles the captain's role in making the team - then obviously McCheat is nothing but some guy surrounded by majority pacific islanders and a few aussies....... that's the AIGs in summary - don't forget the role of the bent refs too on the pay roll of AIG.

hahahhahahahahahahahaha