World rugby rankings.

Fair enough wee abs reall y shouldn't be ranked 1.

Pressure is a funny thing, it has a nature of its own and plays a different game. 

It is all Smoke and Mirrors.............

As the Boks are about to find out.

So... realisitically... rankings are a pretty useless metric... as if there is good enough data to say who best team is. Kiwis do have a habit of choking a bit in RWC years - so the rankings may be a way to lessen the pressure... 

Aussies have about 10-1 win ratio v Wales recently and Gatland is a steady coach but happy to wear an AB jersey all day (week even) if Wales win RWC...

England or Ireland are my pick of the NH teams... even the crafty French on their day... but would be happy if wales prove me wrong...

Of the SH teams... well we all know... definitely the wobs... 

Well done to Wales on being ranked #1 in the world but I think it's more a reflection of the weakness of the ranking system being used by World Rugby than any real dominance.

If Wales were playing the All Blacks at a neutral venue this weekend then I would conservatively estimate the odds being Wales at 3-1 against and the All Blacks at about 1-3 on. That to me is the real ranking and this is also reflected in the current betting for the 2019 Rugby World Cup where the All Blacks are currently at 13-10 while you can back Wales at 11-1.

It is weird that rankings are updated on a weekly basis,.  Take for instance Wales,   Thus far this year Wales played  7 tests winning 6 as against the AB's played only four tests - winning 3 and drawing 1.

So Wales picked up points - but they played only NH teams.

In essence  what is I important is the ranking at the end of a  year -  when most teams hav e played a more equal number of games and there were some SH games included,   

    .   

The rankings reflect the standings of each nation. There is no problem. 

Anyway according to World Rugby the loss of England and the win  by SA as well as the win by Wales leaves the situation as follows:- 

1   Wales                     -    89.43

2    New Zealand        -     89.28

3    Ireland                  -     88,69

4    South Africa         -     86,83

5    England                -      86.79

6    Australia               -      84,05   

Fact is the ranking point difference between the top 5 teams has narrowed significantly and is now less than 2,59.    

Anyway according to World Rugby the loss of England and the win  by SA as well as the win by Wales leaves the situation as follows:- 

1   Wales                     -    89.43

2    New Zealand        -     89.28

3    Ireland                  -     88,69

4    South Africa         -     86,83

5    England                -      86.79

6    Australia               -      84,05   

Fact is the ranking point difference between the top 5 teams has narrowed significantly and is now less than 2,59.    

All very tight at the top of the rankings alright. England are playing Ireland next weekend and then Wales take on Ireland two weekends in a row, so these rankings could change before we get to Japan.

Of the Northern Hemisphere, I think England have shown the most potential. They have been outright scary when they get up a head of steam up front, they also seem the best equipped to deal with injuries. However they have shown to be a bit fragile mentally as the loss to Wales and the meltdown against Scotland in the 6 Nations showed. Also be it soccer or rugby world cups England also has to contend with the massive pressure their own media puts them under. With alot of the English media they have a tendency to over-hype their nation sporting teams but turn on them very quickly at the first sign of under performance. I don't think any of the other home nations have to deal with similar pressure, expectations are lower I guess.

Wales have just been consistently good for the last two years. Not amazing but good enough to win consistently which has been enough to get them to the top of the world rankings. They have a right to be quietly confident going into the world cup.  I would question their belief in themselves that they can win if they come up against the All Black though.

Ireland look liked they peaked last years. Englan d and Wales had them figured out in this years 6 Nations as well as looking tired. As much as I rate Joe Schmidt as a coach, I do think he's the best in the world, I'm not sure if he can get us back to the form we showed last year in time for the world cup. We will get out of the group stages sure, but on current form I can't see us going beyond the quarters again. 

Scotland. Have improved considerably in the last few years but still are not currently as good as Ireland, Wales or England. They lack depth and are also mentally erratic. Capable of pulling off an upset every now and then but not world cup winning material. Most likely a quarter final exit again.

France. Alas France are rubbish and have been for years. The club game in France and the eccentricity of French coaches leave France as a shadow of the side they use to be. You use to say about France, never count them off, they are unpredictable, crap one day, rugby gods the next. They are predictably poor now and haven't shown much flare or spark in the last half decade. Argentina should really fancy their chances of claiming the runner spot in their group. I could France on an early plane ho.e 

England's advantage is that there is a massive disconnect between the media and the general public in almost everything. The latter consistently ripping into the former. I think they'll be fine in that regard. Jones won't choke like Lancaster did. Of all the top 3 NH sides, I think we are best equipped to take out England. Wales is a always a very tight fixture, one they've been getting the upper hand in the last couple of years. Ireland have actually been getting the better of us in many tests since 2004. 

OK  Ireland got the better of SA in "many tests"  played in Ireland and in most of the bad losses we had dud coaches - Meyer being the worst,  

OK  Ireland got the better of SA in "many tests"  played in Ireland and in most of the bad losses we had dud coaches - Meyer being the worst,  

I don't think Lancaster choked. Say what you want about Lancaster but they way the English media turned on him during the world cup wasn't nice, particularly as he always came across as a very decent person. England they were quite unlucky to loose to Wales in the last world cup. A chip over the English defense and a rather favorable bounce was the difference between them in that game and that's what cost Lancaster his job. 

I'm not really confident in Ireland at the moment. Looked tired and one dimensional during the last 6N. Might have a better idea following the next 3 warm up matches but I can't see Ireland troubling the Southern Hemisphere teams (Argentina is our world cup bogey team as well) or Wales/England in the world cup.

@clevermike

Not sure what your getting at?

I know South Africa have for a long time not being the powerhouse force of world rugby they use to be but Ireland in their own right have been a pretty good team for a good number of years now. Its not all down to South Africa being poor.

@clevermike

Not sure what your getting at?

I know South Africa have for a long time not being the powerhouse force of world rugby they use to be but Ireland in their own right have been a pretty good team for a good number of years now. Its not all down to South Africa being poor.

Stav

Just taking a side swipe at the idiotic AO and his cloud 9 stories.

Anyway I agree with you whole-heartedly.   There is very little between the ratings of the top 6 teams and neither of NZ or SA is playing any warm-up games in August,  Any surprise outcome - like Ireland beating Wales could sent Wales plummeting downwards in the ratings and send Ireland to the top,   

I am pretty sure the present ratings will have zero impact on wat actually happens in the WC m atches,      

As I've said before, your knowledge of Bok rugby is appalling. Observe: 

1. IRE (17) vs RSA (12) - 13.11.2004
2. IRE (32) vs RSA (15) - 11.11.2006
3. IRE (15) vs RSA (10) - 28.11.2009
4. IRE (21) vs RSA (23) - 06.11.2010
5. IRE (16) vs RSA (12) - 10.11.2012
6. IRE (29) vs RSA (15) - 08.11.2014
7. RSA (20) vs IRE (26) - 11.06.2016
8. RSA (32) vs IRE (26) - 18.06.2016
9. RSA (19) vs IRE (13) - 25.06.2016
10. IRE (38) vs RSA (03) - 11.11.2017

@Augenoffner

Well I think the Sam Burgess affair was something of a blunder by Lancaster but other than that he was and is a really good coach. Very happy to see him get a second chance at success with Leinster. He's done a really good job since he's been there. When it comes to Lancaster and Andy Farrell Englands loss has been Irelands gain.

The Sam Burgess affair didnt work in UK probably as much (as correctly stated) due to press's determination to undermine the experiment. Burgess probably needed another season or two in XV code to be a real deal. He is still one of the standout performers in the NRL.

The media has massive effect on team's performances... simply because critical naratives / opinions seems to sell...

The kiwis used their media like Red China propaganda machine on Quade Cooper in rigged Kiwi RWC of 2011... but all credit to them for at least having the brains to be united in their approach.

The Aussie media is similar vein to UK...

case in point = Wobs win well in Perth all of a sudden the players and media believe their own hype... and same old story in auckland...... when will they learn...?!?! never...