Proteas havea 10% chance ....but they must bat first

I don't fancy our chances if we bat second against Sri Lanka or any of our likely future opponents, having to chase a big total. The confidence of this side is considerably down  since the West Indies series back home. So how do the odds stack up?

We have recent wins against Sri Lanka, but they have WC success and a better tournament so far. I think they are at least 50/50 at this stage.

If we prevail in the quarters, we will face NZ or WI....I would put it at 70% that it will be NZ,  and given our recent loss you would give NZ a 60/40 edge. West Indies, with our domination of them, we have to be a 70/30 favourite.

That amounts to a .7 x .4 + .3 x .7 = 49% chance of prevailing in the semis. Hope for a big G(r) ayle innings....the one thing that could really tilt WIs odds and our odds.

Assuming we get to the final ....our likely opponents are Oz who are I think are 50% likely to get there and 70%  likely to prevail against us in a final. India are 30% likely to get there and 60% likely to win......Pakistan 15% likely to get there and 50% likely to win and Bangladesh only 5% likely to make the final and 10% likely to win.

So if we make the final our chances are:

.5 x .3 + .3 x .4 + .15 x .5 + .05 x .9 = 39% chance of winning a final against the probability distribution of likely opponents.

In aggregate our chances of winning all three games are .5 x .49 x .39 = 9.56 % of winning the WC final. It looks depressing but winning any three games on the trot against top opponents is low. The key is winning the toss.

Well where's the sense in selecting 3 quicks(Steyn, Abbot and Philander) who  swing the ball, it's the best opportunity to get rid of the Sri Lankan top order. You don't want to bowl those three against Sanggakarra when the wicket flattens out which it notoriously does after the first hour or so. The guy is pure class and he will put our attack to the sword....just trust me on this one.

We are all aware of the Protea meltdown under pressure but from an attacking point of view believe me, the Sydney wicket is pretty lively early in the piece and always favours the team who bats second.

So hold off on the kak until the toss.

We have the best side on paper in the WC, we just need them to fire and the Cup is ours.

Better to have lost 2 group games and then win the rest.

When it comes to the knockout stages......stats count for little......its all about backing ones talent and believing now

Yep stats count for stuff all when it comes to knock out games.......what has happened in the past counts for ZERO......anything can happen on the day when it comes to a one off ODI contested between two good sides. Yep team on paper counts for zero as well.

One thing that will count is form......but even that counts for zero when a player in form gets out to a crap ball or gets run out etc  

You can explain all you like, it falls on deaf ears as you don't seem to comprehend the very nature of a knock out game that involves cricket......if we were talking rugby, I might have taken note......cricket is a different ball game.

Toss of the coin has about as much to do with it as your stats do.  

Flip of the coin has nothing to do with the best side of the coin winning the flip.......by any side can win it on the day, means the better side on the day will win it.........that better side on the day will be an in the moment thing, it will have stuff all to do with stats, or previous form.

Stats or history has little worth in a knock out game, especially in cricket.  

I'm not talking about the toss, I'm talking flip of the coin in general.

Winning the toss is always vital

Numerophobia besets the Board. A craven fear of numbers. Dave.....if any team can appear on any day, and the team that happens to have heart on the day will win......the advent of that team among two teams is perfectly described by the toss of a coin.

Viewed in retrospect the numbers are very likely to seem wrong. Viewed from today's perspective Oz at 30%, NZ at 20 %, India at about 14%, the Proteas and Sri Lanka at 12%, Pakistan at 6%, WI at 4% and Bangladesh at 2% seems about right to me.

That's derived from simple probability chains even though I have fudged the parameters scandalously.

We are not talking any team.....we are talking two good sides playing a knock out game.

Heart is certainly not the only factor that will carry the winning side.

The toss of the coin can not be equated at all.

The better side on the day will win.....there is no better side to a coin