So who should open the batting for SA in ODI's

I warned about the opening pair repeatedly and said Amla was trying to protect his wicket in the first ODI and failed in over 40 to 50 to make a real impact so as to ensure hiss election.   Hendricks is not an international player at all.

So what happened today?   Amla clean-bowled for 8 and Hendricks out for 5.   Both as expected failed I what they were supposed to chase of only 204.

Amla's eye-hand co=ordination is gone and he should not be in the WC squad - he will be a dead loss in that series,   Hendricks should be dropped from the squad asap.     

So we have a case where some site idiots claim that Klaasen should replace De Kock as batsman and wicketkeeper.   Only problem Klaasen was out for a duck. 

And Du Plessis was out to for a small score.   After Miller was gone for 31 - the situation I another loss by the Proteas are on the cards,   However, I was wrong n the latter regard as Van der Dussen and Phehlukwayo pulled off a victory    

So who should be in the line-up for the next ODI?

1    De Kock

2    Van der Dussen

3    Markram

4    Du Plessis

5    Hamza

6    Miller

The all-rounder should be Pretorius/Phehlukwayo and the bowlers

8    Steyn

9    Rabada

10   Viljoen/Ngidi

11   Tahir/Shamsi  

In ODI's a team needs big hitters who can hit sixes as well as fours - time for players like Hendricks and Amla to go.  

this close to the world up it would be suicidal to mess about with dropping someone with so much experience. i do agree Amla bats more for himself, but there are a list of players who did so (Kallis anyone?). at any rate, they need to sort out the mentality bowling / fielding wise more than anything. to let the 10th wicket put on 90 odd is massively disappointing but well done AP we have an all rounder who can play a bit now in ODI cricket

Noosh

Experience do NOT win matches.   We have a long history in WC's and in other series where EXPERIENCE lost matches we should have won.  

Amla had a long list of poor performances over the last two years and he was desperate to make a good enough score to remain in contention.   I elsewhere detailed what he did in the last ten critical overs against Pakistan on Saturday,    Instead of trying to ensure an upping in his strike rate he did the exact opposite - he lowered his personal strike rate in a desperate effort to get a century in the game.

This was remarked on by Mark Nicholas and subsequent newspaper repots - which let to a response of Amla to try and stop the arguments raised,   

Now let me go back to 2013 and refer to two series against Pakistan.  The first series was against Pakistan in the Gulf states (5 game series).    In the first two games of the series there was one loss and one win.   Smith had to return to SA after the 2nd game and was replaced by De Kock, In the next three games unlike Smith De Kock made a huge contribution in batting and the Proteas won the last three ODI's by big margins.   Kallis did not participate in the away series at all.

So the Pakistani's came to SA and played three ODI's in SA.   Both Smith and Kallis was in the first two ODI's - both lost by SA.   Smith was very poor in both ODI's and Kallis was poor in the first  one and made 50 off 90 balls in the second ODI.    It was a totally unacceptable strike rate and the game was lost - the low strike rate being the major reason for the loss.   Smith was dropped after the second ODI and was never again in the ODI squad,   The Proteas promptly won the third ODI despite a poor contribution by Kallis in the third ODI,   

The Proteas thought that Kallis was an essential in the upcoming world cup in 2015 and in 2014 Kallis was part of the Proteas tour to Sri Lanka and after failure against Sri Lanka he announced his retirement  from ODI cricket,

So why do I refer to the two cases as examples.    Let me go further and detail why I did it and why the Amla case is in fact similar.   Smith and Kallis over a period of two years (starting in the 2011 WC in India) before their "retirement" had a poor record in ODI's making about one good score in every 5 to 7 ODI's they played in,   However, the good scores were always made with unacceptable strike rates,   The losses consequently multiplied and in the end the two players dropped from the scene in ODI's.

Amla's recent ODI performances followed the same trends as those of Smith and Kallis did in and subsequent to the 2011 WC.   Since 2016 Amla has the same tendency in the shortened versions of the game - he became also the one-in-six ODI score category and like happened on Saturday he caused strike rate problems in a desperate effort to make a century,   Yesterday it was back to his normal form that he showed in most ODI's since 2016 - if not in low scores, but in deficient strike rates.   

It was his strike rate deficiency of Amla early in games that caused problems for his opening partner De Kock.   The latter tried to ensure a reasonable strike rate and because he was forced into it - he made critical errors in matches causing him to be out early.

I am not blinded  by the EXPERIENCE MIRAGE - so please accept that I am objective in this case.    

Experience do NOT win matches.   We have a long history in WC's and in other series where EXPERIENCE lost matches we should have won.  

-we had no experience in playing in those kind of KO matches and it cost us, have a look at our semi again NZ where we threw away a slight margin in our favour doing stupid things. that has to be inexperience because they couldn't have become shit for just those 5-6 overs 

Amla had a long list of poor performances over the last two years and he was desperate to make a good enough score to remain in contention.   I elsewhere detailed what he did in the last ten critical overs against Pakistan on Saturday,    Instead of trying to ensure an upping in his strike rate he did the exact opposite - he lowered his personal strike rate in a desperate effort to get a century in the game.

-agree with your points there, and he is an individualistic batsman, but surely management can cater around that? and that's why QDK is a good counterfoil. the issue comes in at 3 or 4 with Faf doing the same and if he bats with Amla 

This was remarked on by Mark Nicholas and subsequent newspaper repots - which let to a response of Amla to try and stop the arguments raised,   

Now let me go back to 2013 and refer to two series against Pakistan.  The first series was against Pakistan in the Gulf states (5 game series).    In the first two games of the series there was one loss and one win.   Smith had to return to SA after the 2nd game and was replaced by De Kock, In the next three games unlike Smith De Kock made a huge contribution in batting and the Proteas won the last three ODI's by big margins.   Kallis did not participate in the away series at all.

So the Pakistani's came to SA and played three ODI's in SA.   Both Smith and Kallis was in the first two ODI's - both lost by SA.   Smith was very poor in both ODI's and Kallis was poor in the first  one and made 50 off 90 balls in the second ODI.    It was a totally unacceptable strike rate and the game was lost - the low strike rate being the major reason for the loss.   Smith was dropped after the second ODI and was never again in the ODI squad,   The Proteas promptly won the third ODI despite a poor contribution by Kallis in the third ODI,   

The Proteas thought that Kallis was an essential in the upcoming world cup in 2015 and in 2014 Kallis was part of the Proteas tour to Sri Lanka and after failure against Sri Lanka he announced his retirement  from ODI cricket,

So why do I refer to the two cases as examples.    Let me go further and detail why I did it and why the Amla case is in fact similar.   Smith and Kallis over a period of two years (starting in the 2011 WC in India) before their "retirement" had a poor record in ODI's making about one good score in every 5 to 7 ODI's they played in,   However, the good scores were always made with unacceptable strike rates,   The losses consequently multiplied and in the end the two players dropped from the scene in ODI's.

Amla's recent ODI performances followed the same trends as those of Smith and Kallis did in and subsequent to the 2011 WC.   Since 2016 Amla has the same tendency in the shortened versions of the game - he became also the one-in-six ODI score category and like happened on Saturday he caused strike rate problems in a desperate effort to make a century,   Yesterday it was back to his normal form that he showed in most ODI's since 2016 - if not in low scores, but in deficient strike rates.   

It was his strike rate deficiency of Amla early in games that caused problems for his opening partner De Kock.   The latter tried to ensure a reasonable strike rate and because he was forced into it - he made critical errors in matches causing him to be out early.

-fair point, india did a similar thing in T20 when they dropped dravid and tendulkar for the betterment of the team. i am not arguing that amla should be kept, his performances are a fair indication he is on the downward spiral. i am saying it is too late now to do it. i get your point that he puts pressure on other batsmen but we need that relationship between the batters too (experience) and a few games before the world cup is the worst time to try to change this recipe 

I am not blinded  by the EXPERIENCE MIRAGE - so please accept that I am objective in this case. 

nOOsh

I was very interested  in what you wrote and also your reference to the NZ game in 2015,   I did not specifically refer to that series in what I wrote.    There were to my mind two aspects that must be seen as background to that series,    In the case of the selection of the team there was a crisis about the selection of  Philander when  he was not yet matchfit after a  lengthy injury absence .   The same problem  was also with De Kock who had a two-month  injury absence immediately before the WC.  I do not think that the problems – especially with bowling was actually the reason for the said loss,

I am not entirely sure about  AMla’s  batting,    I do not think his eye-hand co-ordination problem can be managed  on any basis.    Amla used to be a top ODI player as a batsman  and was one of  the best in the world,    The fact is he started slipping about two years  ago.   How do management deal with a  physical  problem like Amla is developing?    Based on history that kind of problem developed  with other world top players  and that includes player like David and Tendulkar mentioned by you and Smith and Kallis mentioned by me.

So what can be done in the very short time before the WC?   I do think think  that most of the players (other than perhaps Hamza) have all had many years  of experience on both ODI level and in other competitions like the IPL and even the Mzanzi series  where top players afrom all over the world  participated.     Although for example Van der Dussen played in only 2 ODI’s he has shown that he can compete on ODI level,    Hamza is a very hardhitting batsman – biut also a good legspinner.    His performance in especially the first innings  of the  test he played in was very good.

I would much rather  not have Amla  in the squad  and want to give you the following infoi about the ODI on Saturday:-

Boundaries    -     7

Sixes               -      1

Of the 7 boundaries   6 were scored  in the first 25 overs in the game  when Amsa was batting and he made 50 runs from  52 balls faced.     In over  41 he made the next 4 and in innings 48.    Amla  faced  in total  120 balls  and  -

*    after over 25  he faced  68  balls;

*     from the 68 balls 2 of which produced 10 points; leaving

*    66 balls where he made 48 runs        

The latter is the problem  where a player  facing 66 balls made effectively 48 runs – which is represents  a  strike  rate of  72,72  or an over rate  of  4,37 rpo.   That was the problem highlighted  by  Mark Nicholas and which caused the problem  that resulted an effective decreaase in the strike rate  of Amla  in overs  40 to 50.   What is clear is that  the 66 balls faced were 55% of the balls faced by Amla

Taking into account –

*    Amla’s  performance in ODI’s in the last two years;  

*     Amla’s  strike rate problem in the  ODI on Saturday as detailed above;  and

*    the problem yesterday

I think Amla is going to be more of a handicap than an asset  in the WC series.  

nOOsh

I was very interested  in what you wrote and also your reference to the NZ game in 2015,   I did not specifically refer to that series in what I wrote.   

-true, but a general assertion in an argument is akin to claiming "i'm sure a team will win" in a cricket match with an outlier chance of weather affecting it so i tried to narrow it a bit. i read your points, good statistical backup, my replies are below 

 There were to my mind two aspects that must be seen as background to that series,    In the case of the selection of the team there was a crisis about the selection of  Philander when  he was not yet matchfit after a  lengthy injury absence .   The same problem  was also with De Kock who had a two-month injury absence immediately before the WC.  I do not think that the problems – especially with bowling was actually the reason for the said loss,

-those are also factors, experience is by no means the only one and only excuse however, watch the aussies or any team who has been there and you'll note the captain involvement and the little things come into play. in that game steyn looked very alone, and the whole team started to do things out of character. we missed simple run out chances, miss-fields came into play and when you're trying to keep it tight and the pressure is on that counts a lot, i don't think the injury or the philander call affected those. that said, my blood still boils at the interference on the latter 

I am not entirely sure about  AMla’s  batting,    I do not think his eye-hand co-ordination problem can be managed on any basis.    Amla used to be a top ODI player as a batsman  and was one of  the best in the world,    The fact is he started slipping about two years  ago.   How do management deal with a  physical  problem like Amla is developing?    Based on history that kind of problem developed  with other world top players  and that includes player like David and Tendulkar mentioned by you and Smith and Kallis mentioned by me.

-so the amla batting issue, perhaps they have given him this series to play himself back into form? if he does so, he would certainly be an asset and it would explain some of his lack of confidence. he was never a "finisher" per se but if we have a solid run getter at the top of the innings for a world cup it's worth it (of course this will reqiure hindsight). your argument is very fair, personally i think it should be used in T20s and he should not be anywhere near that squad and post world-cup a call can be made on his spot in the team ODI wise

So what can be done in the very short time before the WC?  

-batting partnerships experimentation, getting co-ord between the partnerships, bowler experimentation, batting line up mid-game experimentation. key: experiment but with the squad on hand who have also become a close knit unit. to drop him now there is zero guarantee anyone can replance him and is infintely better and will gel into the squad improving it so much that we move up a level. hindsight again will come into play here 

 I do think think  that most of the players (other than perhaps Hamza) have all had many years  of experience on both ODI level and in other competitions like the IPL and even the Mzanzi series  where top players afrom all over the world  participated.    

Mzansi was limited players, and poorly planned. can't be used in this sample. IPL fair due but that also is tilted towards pushing Indian talent through which is why QDK sometimes sits on the bench and an unknown (relatively sometimes) comes into play. also the rules about how many u21 players need to be in etc. so it is not geared towards helping other nations even experience wise. some players have absolutely killed it there but have been very average in internationals and vice-versa. 

 Although for example Van der Dussen played in only 2 ODI’s he has shown that he can compete on ODI level,    Hamza is a very hardhitting batsman – biut also a good legspinner.    His performance in especially the first innings  of the  test he played in was very good.

-VDD was also slow in game 1, but is showing potential. letting him bat it out with Amla (as is) will strenghten their batting partnership. key element especially in run calls etc. 

I would much rather  not have Amla  in the squad  and want to give you the following infoi about the ODI on Saturday:-

Boundaries    -     7

Sixes               -      1

Of the 7 boundaries   6 were scored  in the first 25 overs in the game  when Amsa was batting and he made 50 runs from  52 balls faced.     In over  41 he made the next 4 and in innings 48.    Amla  faced  in total  120 balls  and  -

*    after over 25  he faced  68  balls;

*     from the 68 balls 2 of which produced 10 points; leaving

*    66 balls where he made 48 runs        

The latter is the problem  where a player  facing 66 balls made effectively 48 runs – which is represents  a  strike rate of  72,72  or an over rate  of  4,37 rpo.   That was the problem highlighted  by  Mark Nicholas and which caused the problem  that resulted an effective decreaase in the strike rate  of Amla  in overs  40 to 50.   What is clear is that  the 66 balls faced were 55% of the balls faced by Amla

Taking into account –

*    Amla’s  performance in ODI’s in the last two years;  

*     Amla’s  strike rate problem in the  ODI on Saturday as detailed above;  and

*    the problem yesterday

-stats can prove anything over a period of time, so i do get your point. the sample space is defined for whatever will prove our points  that's the fun of it, but again i suppose after the world cup you can say i told you so or vice-versa  

I think Amla is going to be more of a handicap than an asset  in the WC series.  

-i wish i could disagree on that point haha, if we had this discussion 6 months ago i would have jumped on your bandwagon far more

--out of interest, how far do you think SA will go in WC? 

-nOOsh

I think that there is a slight problem as to the IPL.   De Kock used to be on contract with Delhi Daredevils and he did play for them regularly.   Last year he was contracted by Chaennai but after one game he got sick and did not play later in the tournament.    This year he has moved to Mumbai and he is likely to be back to play regularly for them.

As to van de Dussen took 12 balls to get his first run - but thereafter throughout the innings scored at an average of just over 6 runs per over.   When Van der Dussen came on Amla was already on 40 runs.   That is why he had so much more runs by the time the partnership reach 150 runs as partners and when he got out he was on 93 with Amla sat 96.   So Amla's contribution to the partnership was 56 runs and Van der Dussen was 93.  

As to South Africa's progress in the WC tournament my personal opinion is that it deppends entirely on the squad to represent SA,    I think SA has -

*   a better attack component than we had in 2015;

*   AB de Villiers will be missed - but I think  other than that SA will have a competitive  batting line-up, other for reservations about Amla; and 

*   we will have better all rounders than we had in 2015.

Looking at what has happened in the recent series against Australia as an example, I am pretty sure that with the right selections SA will be in the semi-final with a good chance of going  further.