From the WSJ
President Trump is angry with U.S. allies for refusing to help make the Strait of Hormuz passable for oil tankers, and the media coverage boils down to a version of “serves him right.” Mr. Trump has played the bully with allies, who are now returning the disfavor. This is satisfying for those who dislike Mr. Trump, but the outcome may not turn out well for the allies.
Europeans have a point that Mr. Trump didn’t consult them before he began this round of bombing with Israel. He’s also been high-handed with Europe over Greenland, and with the world on his unilateral tariffs. A more conventional U.S. President would have done more to cultivate personal ties with leaders who could help smooth over rough political moments. Mr. Trump always prefers the U.S. power flex, which is no doubt grating on European sensibilities.
Yet let’s assume Mr. Trump feels he must keep bombing for many more weeks to end an Iranian veto on oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Who will be harmed the most? Not the U.S., which is largely self-sufficient in energy. Americans will pay more for gasoline because oil is a global market. But the price of West Texas crude is still lower than the Brent crude global price, and natural gas is far less expensive in the U.S. than in Europe or Asia.
Escorting ships through the Strait is dangerous and costly even for the U.S. Navy. If there’s no cease-fire that Iran agrees to, Mr. Trump might decide to blow up Iran’s oil energy facilities on Kharg Island.
On Friday the U.S. hit Iran’s military forces on the island but spared the oil production targets. Hitting those would cost Iran dearly since it is still exporting oil through the Strait. It would also hit the rest of the world far more than it would the U.S.
Mr. Trump said Monday “we don’t need anybody” in the Gulf, but he wouldn’t be asking if that were true. European countries have more mine-sweeping ships than the U.S. Naval help would reduce the burden on the U.S. Navy, which has other interests to protect around the world. These days that includes the Caribbean and the Pacific.
More important for relations with Mr. Trump for the next three years—sorry, folks, he still has 34 months to go—is the message that countries were unwilling to help when asked. Mr. Trump has a long memory, and Europe simply can’t defend itself without American military power.
The country in Europe that most seems to appreciate this is Ukraine, of all places. President Volodymyr Zelensky has dispatched his experts on drone defenses to the Gulf, and that could well save American lives. The military in Europe most threatened at home is the one most willing to help the U.S. abroad. Mr. Trump might keep this in mind before pressuring Ukraine into a bad peace with Russia.
The tragedy of this Western division is that the real winners are Iran, Russia and China. They’re working together to defeat the U.S. in the Gulf and weaken American deterrence. If Iran emerges with a veto over Strait of Hormuz oil flows, and U.S. credibility is damaged, Mr. Trump will be hurt.
But the bigger losers in the long run will be countries that depend on American power to deter aggressors. See Ukraine 2014 and 2022, and Gaza 2023. The allies may come to regret their short-term Schadenfreude about Mr. Trump’s Hormuz predicament.